Who's Favored In The Ten Remaining Primaries & Caucuses

[malik flavors]

Pennsylvania - Clinton
Guam - ?
Indiana - Obama/Clinton
North Carolina - Obama
West Virginia - Clinton
Kentucky - Clinton
Oregon - Obama
Puerto Rico - Clinton
Montana - Obama/Clinton
South Dakota - Obama/Clinton

Is this about right?

Or am I off somewhere?

[sandnsea]

1. No

IN, MT, SD are highly favored to go Obama.

Puerto Rico and Guam don't have electoral votes, so by Clinton standards, they don't count.

We're dragging this out for 3 friggin' states, that aren't going to give the election to Hillary even if she wins them.

[rox63]

2. I think Obama will win MT and SD by a big margin

He has done well in most of the other Mountain West, normally-red states.

[grantcart]

5. yup

[keep_it_real]

3. I think Obama should have taken his vacation in PR.

Just to get a feel for the Island and its people; he could get lucky there if he puts some time in.

[John Q. Citizen]

4. MT is Obama country.

[featherman]

12. OR is rock solid for Obama

[phrigndumass]

6. Latest state polls reveal ...

PA - Clinton +12
IN - Obama +15 (This was after Super Tuesday)
NC - Obama +15
WV - Clinton +28
KY - No poll
OR - Outdated poll (before Super Tuesday)
SD - No poll
MT - Outdated poll (before Super Tuesday)
Puerto Rico - No poll
Guam - No poll

:hi:

[BearSquirrel2]

13. But we all know ...

But we all know once Obama gets on the ground he tends to pick up quite a lot. Hillary has the name recognition. Obama has the talent.

[malik flavors]

7. so we're pretty much guessing they'll split the remaining contest 5 and 5?

[JayFredMuggs]

8. Which means Clinton is finished, can't close the lead

And will continue to self-implode with every week of unpaid bills, cash shortages, "mis-statements" about her war experience in Bosnia, and continual use of sock puppets, (her husband Bill among them like Gerry Ferraro, and that Judas-calling what's his name) who make racist remarks, and generally drag her campaign down into the mud.

[phrigndumass]

10. I'm guessing 5 and 5, but more importantly

Pledged delegates from these contests would result in:
Clinton - 278
Obama - 288

... based on polls (or lack thereof), which would be a net gain of +10 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

[Tatiana]

9. Well these were my predictions a while ago:

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/Tatiana/23

The only thing I'd change is that I'd put WV in Clinton's column and Montana/South Dakota in Obama's.

[featherman]

11. My take

Clinton favored in PA, WV, KY

Obama favored in: NC, OR, MT, SD

Tossup: IN (but some now outdated polling favored Obama at one point)

Unknown: Guam, PR

[backscatter712]

14. Judging by the numbers of delegates each of these contests have...

I'm gonna throw another prediction to the wind and say that the race will be over on May 20th. That's Kentucky and Oregon.

I'm making a few assumptions, so I may be off by a little, but assuming that Clinton can't get major victories, and Obama holds on to his delegate lead, after Kentucky and Oregon are over, it will be mathematically impossible for Clinton to catch up in pledged delegates, because the delegate lead will be greater than the total number of delegates available in the races that are left.