Clintons plan : how she wins ( with insights )

[nlb]

I know someone within the Clinton campaign who told me the other day that Hillary would have dropped out if it was like many people think "impossible" for her to win. He said they did kinda survey the "undecided" superdelegates ( many know who they will vote for but wouldnt go public), and they know for a fact that she has a huge lead over Obama among them .If they decide she'll win easily . The only problem and thats what they are doing right now is to rationalise their vote to the public . They hope to achieve that with "symbolic" big wins in PA,Indiana, WV...

so that is what this campaign is now about. very disturbing if you support Obama.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

1. Indeed.

http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2005/12/12/wombat_wideweb__470x276,0.jpg

[SpiralHawk]

2. Very disturbing if you support the will of the voters

eom

[slinkerwink]

4. actually, that would be the minority of voters in those late-voting states

the majority of voters in this primary season has gone over to Obama.

[nlb]

sure

but if the large majority of supers go to Clinton she wins . thats how it is

[CreekDog]

32. and she gets a large majority by bashing Obama?

negative campaigning reduces your own numbers, not just your opponent's. she can't get big majorities and big wins in remaining states this way --you see despite bad news for Obama that she hasn't really gotten anywhere.

her political skills frankly, SUCK.

[Kool Kitty]

46. And that is how it shouldn't be.

Can we please have an election where the will of the people actually matters?

[nlb]

6. sure

but if the large majority of supers go to Clinton she wins . thats how it is

[slinkerwink]

8. that would be overriding the majority of the voters and Clinton will be seen

as illegitimate.

[DemVet]

7. Hey, that's politics

She's just playing the game within the confines of the rules.

Let's be realistic, the popular vote doesn't mean anything...it never did. Delegates do.

If she gets more delegates, she wins. It's that simple.

Don't like the rules? Work to change them.

[JackORoses]

33. it's not a game, dumbass. It's real life, and Hillary has lost.

her lack of grace is sickening.

[DemVet]

52. Dumbass?

And you Obama-cultists wonder why a fairly large segment of the Democratic Party is going to vote for John McCain if BO is our candidate.

Well done.

You obviously don't have the intellectual capacity to understand that your boy hasn't won yet, and that both candidates still have a shot to win this thing. Just keep the number 2025 in mind...it actually means something.

[cd3dem]

22. how about the voters in Florida and Michigan? oh yah,, they don't count unless they vote for BO!

[sellitman]

43. She signed off on following the rules until it didn't suit her.

She was ok not allowing Florida and Michigan to break party rules until she needed their votes.

That's called cheating. That's not what I want in a Presidential candidate. We got one of them now.

[crispini]

3. That is very plausible.

There are a couple of "undecided" supers I know in Texas who are, in all probability, leaning Clinton.

[peace13]

5. Interesting.

To make it worse they don't have to be big wins she just has to call them that. Look at Texas, it was pretty much a wash for Clinton and Obama yet it is billed a Hill victory. Ohio was the same, if you take away the rethugs that crossed to vote for her in the primary she 'won' the state by a whopping 120,000 votes. This was billed as a huge victory for Hill, go figure. When will the Dems wake up and see that Hill uses the same tactics as Rove and as such we will get nothing new when she is selected. Her demeanor these days is one of an angry human being. I don't think the world can take that. I am sure that I cannot.

[Raffi Ella]

9. thanks for the info.

Welcome to D.U. :hi:

[ericgtr]

10. That's your source, you "know someone"?

and it's "disturbing if you support Obama"? Have you looked at the SD's moving toward Obama lately? If not I would encourage you to do so for a dose of reality. I don't mean to shit on the Clinton parade here, there are plenty of legitimate things she can be praised on but this post is no more credible than Hillary dodging sniper fire.

[gabeana]

12. Plus the tone of the OP

is that Obama can't do anything about it, so if this is true,(which i have doubt) its not like the Obama campaign is paralyzed with fear, I'm sure they have their own contingencies for SD

[nlb]

14. actually I support Obama

as you can see in my previous posts . I dont have to make this up . I wish it wasnt true , but it is .

[Joe the Revelator]

42. You are a very bad liar.

:rofl:

[Kool Kitty]

47. Of course you do. It was obvious when you said

that this should worry the Obama supporters. Shouldn't you have said, "we Obama supporters" or something similar?

[Window]

29. .

:rofl:

[Cassandra]

11. Why do we have...

people with no profile and low (and sometimes not so low) post counts floating this stuff. If you know someone in the Clinton campaign, perhaps it's because you are in the campaign and have come here to float disinformation.

[Coexist]

13. delete

on second thought, this didn't even deserve a response. My bad.

[Eurobabe]

15. Where's your profile sunshine?

C'ya! :hi:

[grantcart]

17. where the sunshine don't shine

[nlb]

20. I want you to challenge what I say

and not attack me for who I am instead.

[grantcart]

16. This is the most reasonable explanation I have seen yet.

There are four problems with it

1) There has been a consistent trend away from Clinton by super delegates:




It is hard for me to believe that there are any who are really leaning hard for Clinton that would not have announced by now to help stem the tide of bad publicity for her (today 3 super delegates have announced for Obama alone).

2) The largest single block of super delegates are 'add on delegates' and not even chosen yet.--75

So far all of the add on delegates that have been chosen and announced have in fact gone for Obama.

3) There are many super delegates (like Sen Cantwell of WA) who previously announced for Clinton, are still counted for Clinton but have given a pretty strong indication that they are going to change their endorsement. Every time Clinton loses one of these super delegates she has to get two simply to stay even.

4) Obama can simply split the super delegates and he will win by over 100 delegates. Clinton doesn't need to get some of the super delegates or tie him, she needs 70% of the rest.

[nlb]

18. well, 300 superdelegates at least

still have to decide. If they think they can win 200 , they sure have a point.

[grantcart]

21. lol and if pigs fly lol your OP indicated that there was a large reservoir of

Clinton leaning super delegates - that is not true.

She actually would need 240 of the 300 to make up what she is behind in pledged delegates.

Also everytime she loses one that is already committed to her she needs to pick up two to stay in place.

[nlb]

24. that is true my friend

The reason they're so angry at Richardson is because he was one of them but ultimately switched . she can get those 240 , I dont know for a fact if its possible or not but they seem to think it is.

[grantcart]

50. if they think that then they are truly dellusional because obviously

it is a huge number but also a large chunk of them don't exist yet.

[thoughtcrime1984]

55. Was Casey a sure thing, too?

I guess not!

[redqueen]

28. I wonder if her fatcat buddies have threatened any of those...

I'm sure that'll help.

[PATRICK]

48. It's worse than that by far

Clinton is relying on a circular reasoning that is spinning super delegates out constantly- against her. They want to disilussion Clinton that the dilemma they are in is a viable gambit. It isn't and only being from "Clinton" win states and close personal or political alliances keeps the whole group away from immediately dispelling the illusion. Even more than the primaries themselves this has been a slow grind
against "alternate" strategies and Clinton spin. Each and every option has been defeated, removed or made unviable except in the will of the imagination. So fed up with this pressure have the supers become that they are now urging her more and more to drop out already instead of the more comfortable and democratic one of simply reigning in certain types of threatening, manipulative negativity.

This is a slow death spiral. ALL campaigns go through these stages until the last phoenix stays buried in the ashes. The spectacular size of this remaining contestant campaign is going through its defintely final stages, the sound of doors slamming shut echoing it seems forever and endlessly. It is more by sheer scale that it differs from any other losing effort. So much so one would need a long post to delineate the financial, procedural, electoral certainties weighing down the Clinton campaign only offset by her loyal supporters and the MSM GOP agenda.

We need to be relentless to restore fair math as humbly noted in the post, and sanity to the American election process. Whatever the legion flaws of the Dem primary system we don't need to move toward the Bush 2000 system of last minute corrective measures. Nor will we, nor the super delegates.

[Me.]

19. Gosh...Someone Better Tell Casey & Leahy

who just endorsed Obama today. And frankly, low count poster with supposed hearsay brings no credibility and raises suspicions of paychecks for posts. State your source and your position with the campaign.

[nlb]

23. I'm loyal in that sense...

I wont state my source.

like I said earlier 300 supers still have to decide and regardless of what Leahy and Casey do, if 200 of them go for Clinton , she wins . Its sad , but thats how it is.

[4themind]

25. Hmm "anonymous" poster, with an anonymous source....

don't want to be accused of an appeal to authority here but, I'm going to I'd need a little more convincing, and I would hope most reasonable DU'ers here would have relatively higher standards for the sources they use for judgment..sorry.

[Me.]

26. "Inevitable" ?

Where have we heard that before

[Bonobo]

27. Other than destruction of Obama, she has no plan, right? nt

[Teaser]

30. I also have a super secret source that tells me

that the Queen of England is an ancient serpent demon in human form.

[CreekDog]

31. if she splits the vote here on out, she needs about 87% of remaining supers

:rofl:

[Arugula Latte]

34. Sounds like Bushco. coming up with bullshit to justify the invasion of Iraq.

[against all enemies]

35. "kinda survey"? Please, I never tell the truth in a kinda survey either.

[Vinca]

36. Can you imagine the hell that will break loose if the superdelegates

override the primary vote? She can't seriously be considering that. I'll be at the town clerk's office within minutes changing from Democrat to Independent and I imagine I'll have to get in line.

[olkaz]

37. This is a waiting game by the Clintons, if Obama makes a mistake, She's the Nominee

And Obama is not nearly the political animal that the Clintons are.

It is likely, at some point, he will make a campaign-related mistake.

It's a disgusting and undemocratic strategy, but when winning is everything, you look at options like this seriously.

[cascadiance]

44. She could suspend her campaign now, and unsuspend it later if this were to happen...

It's one thing if something tragic or horribly dumb happens with the Obama campaign that would force the party to reconsider having him as the nominee. It's another thing to try and "wait" for such an unlikely event to occur (almost challenging the MSM who has interests in seeing Clinton to win, to INVENT crises which they've been trying to do lately). She should make it clear that she's suspending/dropping her campaign so that everyone can get behind Obama as the nominee, but if something bad were to happen (which is the only way she'd win now), then she could easily persuade the super delegates to vote for her in that instance, and if the situation was bad enough, the voting public wouldn't fault the super's for doing that.

Clinton folk PULLLEASE don't count on an INVENTED crisis to get your choice for the nominee power. Taking that attitude will be clear to all the voters that not only are you likely "counting on" a candidate like Obama to fail in your favor, but perhaps the Democratic Party to fail itself not in favor of the general public. McCain will eat that up! This election isn't just a way to find a certain candidate power. It's to put our best foot forward and hopefully someone that will solve the nations' ills and being confident that our party is the one to deliver on this. The Democratic Party really has chosen Obama for that now. And I say that as someone who's supported Edwards, and personally would still rather see him nominated, but know that's not going to happen now.

[olkaz]

45. Well put.

Said it better than I did. Cheers!

[julialnyc]

38. This strategy of the SD's doesn't make any sense

It would just give the perception of her stealing it in the end. If these SD's all supported her they should have come out earlier to give the perception of a closer race. I don't get this strategy.

[Lucinda]

39. Welcome to DU. Your OP makes a lot of sense.

:hi: I had already come to the same basic conclusion.

[Emillereid]

40. After the huge Bosnia lie I can't imagine any honest super-delegate voting for her -

it was disgusting and will play in an endless loop should she be the nominee. If I had told such a lie I wouldn't be able to show my face - this woman just brushes it off like so much dust and continues her path of destruction.

[Cant trust em]

41. another "superdelegates will overturn the will of the public" post

I hope that for the party's sake this doesn't happen.

[Ian_rd]

49. Very disturbing if you support democracy, too

And what better way to lose the GE than to tell millions of primary voters that they wasted their time, and now it's time for the "adults" to decide who will be the candidate. The only way the SDs will give Hillary the nomination is if their loyalty to her outweighs their loyalty to popular democracy and the ability to win in November.

[Samantha]

51. Sounds like a false rumor initiated by the Clinton campaign

to justify her staying in the race.

[BeyondGeography]

53. And, if that doesn't work

[goletian]

54. very disturbing if you want to win in november. unless clinton gets a clean lead, millions will...

not vote dem in november.