Hillary needs 81% of remaining states if NC and PA vote according to current polls

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

Pennsylvania: 39% Obama, 49% Hillary
North Carolina: 55% Obama, 34% Hillary

Assuming the undecideds are split evenly between the two candidates, and the delegates are apportioned statewide based on these numbers (in other words, no consideration for bonus delegates):

Pennsylvania 67 for Obama, 84 for Hillary
North Carolina: 56 for Obama, 35 for Hillary

Hillary will have to win 81% of every single remaining state to tie up the pledged delegate count.


Edit to add:

The most recent poll I have seen for Indiana is Howey-Gauge, which is 40% Obama, 25% Clinton. If that holds, Clinton's % to tie goes to 95%.

[JimGinPA]

1. Actually, The Way The Districts Are Weighted, The Delegate Margins Will Be More In Obama's Favor...

So 81% may be a low estimate.


K&R

[helderheid]

4. If she doesn't drop out, I cry foul. She's running for 2012.

[loveangelc]

2. so basicall, she cannot catch up in delegates. lol.

[Qutzupalotl]

3. And she's just the person to think she can do it.

[HereSince1628]

5. I just want to know which campaign has hire THE COUNT from Sesame Street?

Cause that's the camp that has control of the numbers.

[metalluk]

6. You're very confused!

There are only ten primaries left, only eight of which are states.

Eighty-one percent of ten is 8.1; 81% of 8 is 6.48. There are no fractional states.

"81% of every single remaining state" is a meaningless construct.

Try actually saying what you mean!

Furthermore, the next-to-the-most recent poll from NC showed HRC and BO separated by 1 percentage point, so I wouldn't put much credence in the 21% difference in the latest poll. The only polls that count are the results from the actual vote.

Clearly, however, HRC would have to get a new burst of momentum to overtake BO in elected delegates. Luckily, there are still those superdelegates who will be exercising their independent judgment about such issues as electability, just as they were created to do.

BO is odds-on but not a lock.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

7. there's a strong anti war movement in North Carolina - not good for Hillary

so the 20-21% lead is reasonable.

We even have one republican congressman who has come out against the war,
because so many of his constitutents have lost a loved one or
have a loved one who has been maimed by Hillary's war.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

8. initial PA voter registration numbers look good for Obama

More details on PA registration

Ben Smith Politico March 26, 2008

Jay Newton-Small says the early numbers look good for Obama:

Although the final numbers are not yet in, so far registration has swelled 84,801 since the 2006 elections —
that's 11% of the 790,000 people who voted in the 2004 Democratic primary.
Last week alone 50,347 people became Democratic voters, according to Pennsylvania's State Department,
bringing the state party's total to over four million for the first time ever. Since the beginning of the year, 86,711 Republicans
and Independents have switched affiliations, and in just the last three weeks 34,104 new voters registered as Democrats.

Significantly, 64% of those who changed parties were in the 12 largest counties — urban areas that have large African American and educated white populations, demographics that are Obama's strength. "I think he has a chance to pull off an upset here," said Ray Owen, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Pittsburgh. "The rates of changes in registration and new registrations indicate that some independents are joining the new voters
in registering Democratic."

link

[mrJJ]

9. I need new math

The DLC candidate, Sen Clinton must win by a margin of 63% for all up coming primaries

04/22/2008 Pennsylvania Democratic

05/03/2008 Guam Democratic

05/06/2008 Indiana Democratic
05/06/2008 North Carolina Democratic

05/13/2008 West Virginia Democratic

05/20/2008 Kentucky Democratic
05/20/2008 Oregon Democratic

06/01/2008 Puerto Rico Democratic

06/03/2008 Montana Democratic
06/03/2008 South Dakota Democratic

[crankychatter]

10. Six more weeks

Then it's over

The DNC is hopping mad

even the DLC is backpedalling away from her in the person of Harold Ford.

[anonymous171]

11. Thus the kneecap strategy.