Trend spotted in PA?

[FlyingSquirrel]

Poll ................................. Date .............. # polled ...... Clinton ..... Obama ... Undecided .. Difference

Rasmussen ..................... 3/24/2008 ...... 697 LV ........... 49 .......... 39 .......... 12 .......... 10
PPP (D) ............................. 3/15-16/08 ..... 597 LV ........... 56 .......... 30 .......... 14 .......... 26
Franklin & Marshall College .... 3/11-16/08 ..... 294 LV ........... 51 .......... 35 .......... 13 .......... 16
Quinnipiac ........................ 3/10-16/08 ..... 1304 LV ........... 53 .......... 41 ........... 6 ........... 12
Rasmussen ..................... 3/12/2008 ...... 697 LV ........... 51 .......... 38 ........... 11 .......... 13
SurveyUSA ......................... 3/8-10/08 ...... 608 LV ........... 55 .......... 36 ........... 3 ........... 19
Susquehanna ...................... 3/5-10/08 ...... 500 RV ........... 45 .......... 31 ........... 19 .......... 14
Strategic Vision (R) ............. 3/7-9/08 ......... LV ............... 56 .......... 38 ............ 6 ........... 18
ARG .................................. 3/7-8/08 ........ 600 LV .......... 52 .......... 41 ............ 6 ........... 11
Rasmussen ...................... 3/5/2008 ....... 690 LV .......... 52 .......... 37 ............ 11 .......... 15

---

I've bolded Rasmussen because it has been taken at fairly regular intervals and you can assume all three polls were done with the same methodology.

As you can see, in the last column "Difference", Obama was behind by 15 points on March 5, 13 points on March 12, and now behind by 10 points on March 24.

To me, that looks like a clear trend of about 2 points per week over the past three weeks. If it keeps up from now till April 22, it would be approx. 45.5% Clinton, 43.5% Obama.

Giving each slightly less than half of the undecided voters, Clinton wins the state 50.5 to 48.5, if the trend continues and Rasmussen is accurate.

If Rasmussen is NOT accurate, but is inaccurate to the same degree every time, it still shows a trend of 2 points per week. The only question is, what's the most likely gap? Let's use the pollster gap which averages all the polls. That gives Clinton 51.5%, Obama 38.7%



Then extend this over the next 4 weeks, using the 2% gap closing per week we saw in the Rasmussen polls.

On April 22 we get:

Clinton 51.4%, Obama 46.6%, (giving them each slightly less than half the undecideds and allowing for a 2% "other" vote).

This is my prediction if the trend I'm seeing holds true.

(It won't be enough for Clinton.) Oh, that'd be about 79-80 delegates for her vs 71-72 for Obama.

Note: Essentially I'm predicting that Clinton's line in the above graph is about to flatline or even go down slightly while Obama's continues upward at a slightly higher incline.

[Johnny__Motown]

1. 2 points a week with 4 weeks to go?

All this new NAFTA info as well as the Bosnia video may have an effect

[FlyingSquirrel]

2. It could. But so could negative stuff about Obama.

[grantcart]

3. Clinton is going to win Pennsylvania in a landslide of gargantuan proportions

When they get finish counting all of the ballots for Clinton in this primary they will be astounded by the magnificence of her leviathan victory of towering proportions. In years to come the prodigious outcome of Hillary's Pennsylvania massive landslide will be captured in song, poem and pottery. They will speak of the elephantine colossal of electoral might of walloping proportions. Her margins will be 30 or 40 points. The commodious nature of the victory will leave the pundits stunned by the ponderous expression of the collective will of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.



Just thought I would fill in for some of the vacationing commentators who are not particularly mathematically skilled.

[TheDoorbellRang]

4. You coulda just said it'd be HUGH!11!!1

:D

[FlyingSquirrel]

5. That was marvelous.

You are both mathematically and verbally gifted.

[JanusAscending]

6. You forgot to mention.......

the many, many, Repubs switching their party affiliation to Dem. so they can tip the scales in Hil's favor!! It's going to be a GINORMOUS WIN for her!!! (tongue in cheek)

[FlyingSquirrel]

8. Isn't that illeeeeeeeeeeeeeegal?

[JanusAscending]

21. Damn sure is.............

wish there was only some way to enforce it. Maybe tell them if they vote Dem. in the primary, they must vote Dem. in the GE???? That would fix their asses!!

[ElsewheresDaughter]

27. Obama's illeeeeeeegal PA voter registration ad...he'll look lovely in orange in a cell with Rush!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxMD8vcl0bc

[DearAbby]

7. golf clap

and I must say, you were fabulous!

[Voice for Peace]

12. LOL Grantcart! A way with words you have tonight.

[Chulanowa]

13. Pottery?

THAT made me laugh. Great delivery on the snark.

[CalGator]

15. solid

I was just waiting for a "the skies will open up, the light will come down, the celestial choirs will be singing..." :rofl:

[bigbrother05]

19. A dead certainty!

It's good to know you've seen the light!

:rofl:

[Yes We Did]

20. Can I have some? That must be some really good shit.

[grantcart]

30. It was quite a suprise to me that upon graduation from college everyone thought I was a doper

and 50years plus still haven't tried the shit.

[theredpen]

9. Clinton will win 100% in Pennsylvania

I'm certain of it 'cause she's... well, she's so damned SWELL. People will look at that ballot and say, "Should I vote for that guy, or the whizzo-keen super awesome Hillary Clinton," and they'll pick Hillary.

I think Rasmussen is a little off. It'll be 100% for Hillary.

And then, monkeys will fly out of my butt.

[grantcart]

10. Its a good thing you didn't commit to that for some Harlem distircts

[theredpen]

17. She'll win 100% there, too

I know the election already happened in New York, but Hillary will find a way to have a re-vote where she gets 100%.

[grantcart]

23. she did. There were a number of districts in Harlem that voted 100% for Clinton

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5261491

[theredpen]

26. Obviously I was joking...

This is pretty serious.

[anigbrowl]

11. That trend line looks awfully familiar.

[phrigndumass]

14. kicked and rec'd ... Also, got the new magic numbers here ...

With all the new polls coming out, Senator Obama's magic number is down to 102 (32% of remaining SDs needed). Senator Clinton's magic number is still way up there at 234 (74% of remaining SDs needed).

i.e., if less than one-third of the remaining superdelegates endorse Obama, the pledged delegates from the remaining races will make up the rest (according to polls) and we can make it official.

And there's still that Pelosi number that grantcart told us about.

How ya likin' them chances?!

[grantcart]

31. if you check the daily thread we just added another superdelegate

Congressman Lipinski backs Obama for president

March 26, 2008Recommend (11)

FROM THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Congressman Dan Lipinski is backing U.S. Senator Barack Obama's presidential bid.

Lipinski had been one of the two remaining holdouts among Democratic superdelegates in Illinois' congressional delegation. He says he's endorsed Obama because of the candidate's emphasis on overcoming partisanship and uniting the country.

http://www.suntimes.com/news/elections/861889,032608lipinski.article

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

16. 12% undecided.

Unbelievable.

[Drachasor]

18. Doesn't look like those polls are really different statistically from one another

[FlyingSquirrel]

22. Actually maybe 52.1% to 45.9%

Being a little more generous and calling it 5 points over 3 weeks instead of 2 points per week.

So 80 delegates to 71, if percentages of delegates matched votes.

[davidpdx]

24. That's encouraging

but not enough. The proof will be on election day. That means there is a lot of hard work to be done. Damn I wish I weren't overseas, I'd campaign 24/7. I'll send another donation though.

[my3boyz]

25. Barack will not win PA but I hope he keeps it close.

If he can keep it within 10 pts it is a win for him. He was behind almost 30 pts before the Wright situation. So I think it is good that he is closing the gap a bit even while all the crap was being thrown at him.

[Orsino]

28. I don't know whether we're entitled to call it a trend yet...

...but is is interesting. I'm expecting Obama to close the gap somewhat, but that's nothing more than gut feeling.

[FlyingSquirrel]

29. Perhaps not.. the trendline on Pollster shows a lesser trend of 0.5% per week

Over a 12-week period. However, there were a lot fewer polls earlier and the race hadn't really heated up - a lot of people still hadn't seen much of Obama. There are a lot of polls now showing very different things so it's hard to come up with a shorter-term trend based on them. One more Rasmussen poll would be very helpful because of the similarity in methodology. I'm pretty sure that the trend has picked up recently from 0.5% per week gap closing. It's probably somewhere between 1% and 2%. I'd give it an outside chance of closing by 3% per week in the last 4 weeks, but it'll take some serious work - and I don't see Clinton easing up on the fear-mongering.