And this is far, far, far from a pro-Hillary blog if there ever was one.
http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=888The press will try to make a race of it. There will surely be polls showing the race tightening, perhaps even suggesting that Obama could win it. But that’s just part of the predictable song-and-dance to sell newspapers and up ratings (and hit counts, for the political blogs and news sites that sell ads). The way the odd-numbered delegate districts break down, the demographics, the fact that it’s a closed primary (no Independent voters allowed), and its long border with the senator’s New York state make it a lead-pipe cinch for Clinton; to the extent that Obama supporters enter the “no, but yes, we can win it” narrative they’ll be walking into a trap.
Clinton has now moved 250 staffers (about 13 for each of Pennsylvania’s 19 Congressional districts) into the Keystone state and is opening two dozen field offices. She has the support of Governor Ed Rendell and his considerable machine, not to mention a phalanx of mayors including Michael Nutter of Philadelphia. They’re carrying a straight flush and they’re betting everything on it. That makes it tempting for Obama fans to seek a knockout punch, but all their candidate really needs to do is survive to the next round – North Carolina, two weeks later – without having fallen into a rigged expectations game to clinch the nomination.
The new SurveyUSA poll (Clinton 55 percent, Obama 38) tells part of the story.
But a bigger part of the story was already told in Ohio’s 6th Congressional District. That’s the long, thin border district with West Virginia that The Field called the “Pennsyltucky” district. The Obama campaign outspent Clinton on TV and media advertising there, and Obama dedicated his final Ohio appearance in Athens, within that district (as well as sending rockers Arcade Fire to stoke up the youth vote on primary eve), but the Appalachian demographics were against him from the start: Clinton won there with 72.4 percent to just 27.5 for Obama.
That means that Pennsylvania’s “Pennsyltucky” districts with 4 delegates will go 3-1 for Clinton, while districts with 5 delegates will go - just as Ohio’s 6th CD went - 4-1 for Clinton. And in those regions she will rack up an insurmountable 13 delegate lead under any reasonable scenario… and the rest of the state ain’t beanbag either.
Even if Obama narrows the gap - as Ohio’s 18th CD went (Clinton 68.3 percent to 31.6 percent) – it would carry the exact same delegate split, perhaps minus one delegate.
The Field now offers its preliminary math on the entire state.
Pennsylvania (see map, above) offers six CDs with an even number of delegates – 5, 6, 10, 16, 17 and 19 – and thirteen more with an odd number of delegates (meaning, they can’t be fought to a delegate tie).
The Field – six weeks out – predicts the following outcomes (which will not change beyond a delegate or two if Clinton posts anywhere from 55 to 60 percent of the vote):
CD 1: Clinton 3, Obama 4 (+1 Obama)
CD 2: Clinton 3, Obama 6 (+3 Obama)
CD 3: Clinton 4, Obama 1 (+3 Clinton)
CD 4: Clinton 4, Obama 1 (+3 Clinton)
CD 5: Clinton 3, Obama 1 (+2 Clinton)
CD 6: Clinton 3, Obama 3 (+0)
CD 7: Clinton 3, Obama 4 (+1 Obama)
CD 8: Clinton 3, Obama 4 (+1 Obama)
CD 9: Clinton 2, Obama 1 (+1 Clinton)
CD 10: Clinton 3, Obama 1 (+2 Clinton)
CD 11: Clinton 4, Obama 1 (+3 Clinton)
CD 12: Clinton 4, Obama 1 (+3 Clinton)
CD 13: Clinton 3, Obama 4 (+1 Obama)
CD 14: Clinton 4, Obama 3 (+1 Clinton)
CD 15: Clinton 3, Obama 2 (+1 Clinton)
CD 16: Clinton 2, Obama 2 (+0)
CD 17: Clinton 2, Obama 2 (+0)
CD 18: Clinton 4, Obama 1 (+3 Clinton)
CD 19: Clinton 2, Obama 2 (+0)