If you want to see where Bush is really headed, see these poll results..

[TruthIsAll]

He is at 46.40% (average) and is falling 2%/month over the last 4 months. At this rate, he will be down to 40% in August. Just in time for the NYC Repuke convention fiasco.

You must look at all the polls, including the ones we know are biased for Bush. See his steady attrition in the averages.

There were only 3 Bush bounces in his 40 month reign of terror: 32%, 8%, 4%, ? The next "bounce" in the sequence is 2%.

October Surprise? It will get him very little. Probably will hurt more than it will help.

Bush has shot his load. No credibility. No respect as a war leader. No respect as a decision maker. His intellect is universally panned as the lowest of all presidents in history, Reagan included.

Look for the 9/11 report, the Plame scandal resulting in a WH frog march, further revelations in TortureGate, the June 30 "Iraq handover" - all will bring him down so far, the election will be over for all intents and purposes before the first vote is cast.

So it will be either massive Diebold fraud or martial law. There is no way he can remain in office in anything resembling a fair election.

......BUSH JOB APPROVAL FROM FEB. 2001 TO MAY 2004......
1-Nwk 2-Fox 3-CNN 4-Pew 5-Harris 6-CBS 7-ABC 8-Time 9-NBC 10-AP 11-Zogby
ymm 1...2...3...4...5..6..7..8..9..10.11...AVG
102 52 55 57 53 na 53 55 52 na na 57 54.25
103 55 56 63 56 56 53 58 55 57 na 53 56.20
104 57 63 59 53 49 60 63 na 56 na 52 56.89
105 57 59 53 50 59 56 55 52 na na 52 54.78
106 na 59 55 51 50 57 na na 50 na 51 53.29
107 na 56 52 52 56 53 59 55 na na 47 53.75
108 na 55 51 50 52 50 55 na na na 50 51.86
109 86 81 87 80 na na 86 84 82 na 82 83.50 <Trifecta +32%
110 84 80 na 84 88 89 92 89 na na 78 85.50
111 85 84 87 84 86 87 89 87 88 na na 86.33
112 82 86 86 na 82 85 89 82 85 na 81 84.22
201 na 83 84 80 79 86 86 77 82 77 80 81.40
202 83 81 82 78 79 84 83 na na na 74 80.50
203 74 80 81 na 77 82 82 75 na 75 74 77.78
204 71 79 76 74 75 78 79 75 74 72 69 74.73
205 73 72 77 na 74 76 78 72 75 71 70 73.80
206 70 74 70 70 70 71 77 70 69 na 69 71.00
207 68 70 76 67 62 70 72 70 67 67 62 68.27
208 61 69 68 60 63 65 69 na na 65 na 65.00
209 70 66 66 63 68 66 69 65 64 65 na 66.20
210 61 65 67 na 64 66 67 61 63 63 63 64.00
211 60 68 63 61 65 63 67 64 na na na 63.88
212 na 65 64 61 64 61 66 55 na 64 64 62.67
301 56 63 63 58 na 65 59 53 62 64 na 60.33
302 61 57 61 54 52 59 64 62 54 58 63 58.64
303 53 60 57 55 na 56 62 54 61 57 62 57.70
304 71 71 70 67 70 68 71 62 62 51 54 65.18 <Iraq invasion + 8%
305 65 65 69 65 na 67 71 63 71 64 61 66.10
306 61 66 64 60 61 67 68 na 62 na 58 63.00
307 55 60 62 58 na 66 59 55 na 60 53 58.67
308 53 59 60 56 57 60 59 na 56 58 52 57.00
309 52 58 52 55 na 55 56 52 na 52 45 53.00
310 51 52 55 50 59 52 54 na 49 51 49 52.20
311 52 52 54 50 na 54 56 52 51 52 48 52.10
312 54 52 63 57 50 60 59 54 58 59 53 56.27 < Saddam capture + 4%
401 50 58 60 56 na 50 58 54 54 56 49 54.50
402 48 48 51 48 51 50 50 54 na 47 na 49.67 < Kerry wins the primaries
403 48 48 49 46 na 51 50 na 50 48 46 48.44 < Clarke:Bush asleep pre- 9/11
404 49 49 52 43 na 49 51 49 na 48 47 48.56
405 na 49 46 44 na 46 na 47 na na na 46.40 < TortureGate
ymm 1...2...3...4...5..6..7..8..9..10.11...AVG
1-Nwk 2-Fox 3-CNN 4-Pew 5-Harris 6-CBS 7-ABC 8-Time 9-NBC 10-AP 11-Zogby

[NMDemDist2]

1. you do love that graph don't ya Truth? and it makes me happy too n/t

[The Blue Knight]

2. This is good news, but the only poll that counts is in November.

[TruthIsAll]

3. That's not a poll, that's a felony.

TIA

[tridim]

4. I really think they've given up

He's way below the safe Diebold'ed election level and it's fairly obvious that martial law would throw the country into anarchy within a few days. They might try some sort of October surprise, but it'll either fall flat or be thrown right back at them.

I've seen the unmistakable look of defeat on *'s face for the past few weeks.

[Melodybe]

5. Thank god!

[Lefty Pragmatist]

6. Yeah, but the state poll numbers are what matter

There are about 200 EV that are unshakeably red. Presumably Bush is doing poorly in the purple states based on recent news, but 1) the news can't get much worse than the last two weeks, and 2) Nader's presence may mean that states that break 51/49 Progressive(like Florida in 2000) will still fall red.

[Gman]

7. Diebold or martial law

as you say are the only things left to save him.