Why the Primary Fight must end in early May. If you love the Party you must insist.

[Perky]

First of all I want to say that I am both Pro-Obama and anti-Clinton. I wish she had given Obama a clear path weeks ago. Yet having said that Having said that, I believe that based on both her popular vote totals, her general competitiveness and her amassed delegates that she has every right to continue the fight. Having said my love for the Democratic Party and my fear of the GOP trumps everything else.

Given that Florida and Michigan will not re-vote and will likely be penalized by the halving of their delegates;

Given that the PV in those states are somewhat suspect,improperly voted and not recognized by the DNC the PVs should not be counted toward a global PV winner. That means that Obama is virtually assured of a PV victory; and given there is currently a near certainty that the pledged delegate winner will not flip:

There is going to come a point (Maybe with Pennsylvania, but more likely with North Carolina) where Obama locks down victories in Popular votes, Pledged Delegates and States won.

I understand the argument that Hillary won the Big states, but that is a misnomer on three important levels. First there is no indication, that Obama would not win New York, California, NJ or Massachusetts in the Fall and Current Polling in MI, PA, OH and FL suggest that while the constituencies are differ nt, either candidate is going to have to work those battlegrounds hard. Secondly, Obama won big states as well and won with substantial margins. Virginia. Maryland, Wisconsin, Georgia, Colorado and Washington. Third. The Big State argument is only an argument of last resort and is only useful in convincing Super delegates.

But here is the thing, Obama having won the most states, votes and pledged delegates and having done so by energizing the base and bringing new voters to the polls is by any definition of the result of the voting more entitled to be the nominee. And while clearly he has has more work to do and certainly could stumble badly in the final contests, his path to the nomination is far easier.

To deny Obama and his supporter the nomination by masterful working of the super delegates while wholly within the rules of the party, would be devastating to those young voters and core democratic constituencies who voted for him in droves.

Such a victory would certainly be very close and and would be viewed as overturning the popular will . Key Democratic constituencies would be very angry. I think there would be protests. I think there is a chance that there would be riots in some Urban areas. I think that would in turn dissolution both new voters and push swing voters into McCain's arms.

I am not saying Hillary should step aside now.

In that scenario for Clinton to then ask Obama to be on the ticket would largely be viewed as tokenism at its worst and I am sure Clinton would be virtually required to ask and that Obama would be loathe to accept. At the end of the day, a D"ream ticket" would probably still lose in the Fall and it would hurt the party on the down ballot across the country. There is certainly no time to heal the rift in the party if Obama is not the nominee and is not asked to be the VP should Hillary win. ANd should Hillary win The Bush coalition would rally strongly to defeat the woman who's ugly path to the nomination, validates EVERYTHING they feel about her.


But after PA, NC and Indiana. if Obama has locked Pledged delegates. Popular vote and states won. Hillary needs to step aside. The price of clawing to a victory from that point forward will be losing in Novembers. and fracturing the party in ways that it may never recover.

We will be hurt in every race on election day; we will not have the mandate to bring the troops home; we risk an even more conservative SCOTUS.


If you care about the party, if you care about control of the levers of power in this country. If Obama is at all tolerable to you. If after North Carolina, Obama has locked down national victories in Delegates, Popular votes and States won, you must insist that Hillary concede the race.

[ThatBozGuy]

1. Just as an aside there is no popular vote in the primary, its like polls,its just a speculative tool

It has no "official" status in the primary except to use as a divider of the delegates and then it is discarded.

The proof is in the fact that the caucus votes are discarded and only the delegates are reported, there is actually no popular vote, those "votes" were never recorded and included, so know one actually knows what the popular vote is.

In addition there is no popular vote in the primary election rules anywhere, people are confusing the General with the primary and basically the popular "vote" number is just a fancy exit poll that has incomplete results.

It has zero impact other than a false mental edge, and ALL of the candidates know that, any campaign that is telling you that it counts for anything is being disingenuous. The delegates are it (no matter what flavor delegate) in deciding the primary.

[Perky]

3. Ultimately I agree

but the Party rules lay out how delegates are selected and seated. And there is a strong expectation by the voters that the Pledged Delegates will vote as pledged.

[ThatBozGuy]

5. That is correct, in fact most delegates are chosen specifically for just such a purpose

They are candidate specific and hand chosen by each campaign in a lot of cases, because they will not change how they were cast.

The supers are on their own but will not over throw the majority of the delegate, who ever has more delegates on Jun 4th will be the nominee and the can and will move in short order, it will not go to the convention.

[cooolandrew]

2. The honest and correct thing is conceding now. I don't feel unreasonable in saying that...

..If we are the principled party we should hnor a principled win. It would be a similar case if there had been any other 2 candidates in the top 2 say Edwards first and DK 2nd.

[Perky]

4. I agree but itis not a mortal lock yet....A near certainty, but not a mortal lock.

[ThatBozGuy]

7. A very good turn of the phrase "principled party we should honor a principled win"

and you will note that while it has been a weathered week he has come out on the other side just as he went in, and while it would have been easy to just say screw this end it Mr Obama has stood by his Principal and said it will go to the PR final count as long as she is still running her campaign. In questions to him about her VP status he has said by principals that it would be presumptuous to assume he will be the candidate, and it would be improper to speculate while she is still running her campaign.

He will be fine, the party will be fine and we will have demonstrated principled Democratic President after the fall matchup.

That will be very refreshing.

[DFW]

6. "my love for the Democratic Party and my fear of the GOP trumps everything else." Mine, too

Although undecided in preference, and developing an irrational preference for Hillary
due to the ugly tone of many Obama supporters here (yourself decidedly not included),
I am still comfortable with either one as candidate, while still dreaming impossible
dreams of Al Gore emerging from the mist.

But fair is fair, and if the delegate situation after PA and NC shows that Obama can't
lose it, and that Hillary can't win it, then it is time for Hillary to step aside,
congratulate the winner, and start her campaign to become Senate Majority Leader, which
should be a lock. Should Obama suffer a reversal of fortunes, I would expect him to do the
same (no rush for him as Senate Majority leader, but no obstacle, either). If it should
emerge that after PA and NC neither side can win without some machinations, then someone
should put the two of them in a room with Howard Dean somewhere and get a declaration of
something, so that we can avoid the disaster that would be a McCain presidency.

[enid602]

9. reminds me

Posters on this forum who urge Hill to quit somehow remind me of conservative bloggers and pundits who were so quick to demand that Gore and Kerry step down and not question official results.

[DFW]

10. Agreed there: she has not lost it (yet, anyway).

[Perky]

11. If the tone of any candidates supporters on DU is determinative of who we thin the nominee is.....we

are all doomed. That should not be a factor in who you support...because the candidate can not control what their supporters say whether it is Bob Johnson or Geraldine Ferraro or General McPeak or Jeremiah Wright let alone any ardent and asinine supporter who does not know the candidate personally and has not been recruited by the staff for the role of surrogate paid or unpaid.

That is unfair to the candidates..their message and their electability.

[DFW]

22. actually you're right

And I have met both candidates (one of them quite a bit more than once),
and I indeed shouldn't pay much attention to DU hyperbole. They are both
intelligent, engaging, and actually very funny people, and I would be happy
with either of them in the White House.

In any case, I will be supporting the Democratic nominee be, it one of the
two main contenders, or the surprise X factor if it turns out that neither
of them is willing to cede any ground by Denver. A President McCain, as I have
said before, is not an option for me. If I have to reach retirement age while
stationed here abroad, I will, but a country that elects John McCain over BHO
or HRC (or anyone Al Gore if the party should turn to him in case of gridlock)
is not a place where I will feel comfortable. Things are already crazy enough,
and every time I go back, they get worse, not that Texas is a barometer.

[Oleladylib]

8. It won't happen!!! and it shouldn't ..

[Perky]

12. could you elaborate?

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

13. Oh Relax. May, June, August. We'll Be Just Fine And Will Kick The Shit Out Of McCain No Matter What

Rest your weary head. It'll alllllll be ok.

[Perky]

17. And if Obama has locked PV, PD and states won by May 6th,

what should Hillary do?

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

20. Whatever The Fuck She Wants. n/t

[UALRBSofL]

14. OP just give it up. I'll repeat my post for the 3rd time.

McCain can't defeat Obama or Hillary. Y'all just give it up. Everyone know he doesn't have a chance this election cycle. I am sure the RNC is gearing up for 2012. This stuff about Obama this, Obama that, Hillary this, Hillary that is just ignorant. The skeletons in McCain's closet wont hold water. In addition it appears McCain has early signs of Alzheimer's. So to say McCain will win the GE is just showing your ignorance and lack of critical thinking. Now, talk among-st yourselves.

[LWolf]

15. Bullshit: I am not going to insist that the primary fight end

before I ever get to vote. If I love the Democratic party, it's my job to hold the party accountable for a clean, fair, democratic primary election.

There's nothing about the current farce that fits that description. Since I won't get to vote for a decent candidate, unless I write in a symbolic vote that has no hope of a nomination, I'll let the party's primary structure prevail. As one of the last primaries, I'll vote to balance the delegates and force a brokered convention, where we have a slight chance of ending up with a decent candidate who can unify the party in time for November.

That's a greater service to the party than shutting the fuck up and bitterly getting behind a candidate I don't like, don't think is good for the party or for the nation, and allowing myself to be bullied into silent, resentful complicity that results in a loss in November.

[Perky]

16. Why would you not have the right to vote?

All I am suggesting is that Hillary needs to take a realistic look after NC and if she feels it is impossible without a bloodbath. SHe whould make a decsion to close it down or at least change the tone.It is very doubful that she could be reover from any ballot given that it si less than a month to the last primaries on June 4.

[LWolf]

18. What is the point of having a "right" to vote

when the "winner" has already been decided, and the field narrowed to two unacceptable choices before you get to exercise that "right?"

[Perky]

19. DK dropped out by his own choice.

[LWolf]

21. What a simplistic way to put it, lol.

They all dropped out "by their own choice." A choice given them by a schedule and structure that is anything but democratic.

As far as DK goes, I believe he would have stayed in to the end if he hadn't been threatened by HIS OWN PARTY with a primary opponent funded outside of his district in an effort by HIS OWN PARTY to punish him for having the courage, and the integrity, to introduce articles of impeachment.

Still, to narrow the field down to two centrist/corporate/3rd way candidates after a total of 2 caucuses and 2 primaries (not counting, of course, Michigan and Florida, of course, since they didn't get to fully participate either,) thus forcing the entire rest of the nation to vote for two who may not have been their first, second, or even third choice to begin with, is obviously not democratic.

The bottom line is that my vote does not carry equal weight. It is not equal to the votes cast before Super Tuesday, and neither is anyone else's vote cast since the South Carolina primary.

It carries no weight whatsoever if there is already a nominee when I finally cast my vote.

[Perky]

23. OK I am now say it....Hillary should drop out now