If Obama was the presumptive nominee, why haven't the SDs selected him yet?

[joshcryer]

What are they waiting for? Clearly this could be over right now if the SDs merely picked Obama and got it over with. Because neither candidate can win with pledged delegates it is going to require the superdelegates to select our nominee. So why have they not done so?

My speculation is simply that neither candidate has a mandate at this point, and Obama does not, in fact, have the nomination wrapped up. Those superdelegates are watching how he's doing in the primary election simply to determine his electablity in the GE. That's their job.

You cannot blame Hillary for continuing to run, because the superdelegates are not giving the election to Obama. In other words, it's not over, so why would she quit? It's hilarious.

I like that this political season is mattering in every single state that votes. I think participation at this level in a *primary* can only be good for the general election.

[dkf]

1. Because they are reeds that blow in the wind, to and fro, bending but not breaking.

Sad but true.

[joshcryer]

3. What does that mean?

[dkf]

9. They have no balls and want to see where the MSM will push things.

Actually, I think a lot want to endorse Obama but they are scared of Hillary.

I'd be scared of Hillary too if I wasn't a nice anonymous poster who she has no power over. That is another reason I don't want her to be President. She is freaking vindictive.

[joshcryer]

12. I can agree with that. But doesn't that mean he has no mandate?

I think it does. The media wants it to go to the convention. So Hillary may in fact win all these upcoming states in freaking landslides.

[dkf]

21. I think if she wins, African Americans go independent.

and the Supers will not allow that.

They are stuck between a rock and a hard place...but mostly they are scared of Hillary.

Did you hear John Lewis and Bill Richardson? Two men who have fought against really bad circumstances and characters...John Lewis in the civil rights marches and Bill Richardson against some of the monsters of the world.

Both of them really really really didn't want to have to call Hillary and tell them they were going with Obama.

They both mentioned how unpleasant it was.

I can only imagine.

[joshcryer]

22. As some astute poster pointed out, Obama is guaranteed the ticket regardless.

If she won she'd have to chose him as VP. That would be enough for the AA vote.

[dkf]

29. He won't take it.

I believe that with all my heart and soul.

And if he did, it wouldn't do much for me anyway. Hillary as President would be a bad thing for this country. I look at how she runs her campaign and how she has behaved and that tells me a lot. Mostly I look at how she governed the health care task force for Bill. That was the best hope we had for a decent health care system and she botched it by alienating people. This type of governance where she knows best is a recipe for disaster. The fact that she touted NAFTA and said she didn't...I mean its like saying Al Gore, when he debated Ross Perot was simply doing what Bill wanted. That won't fly. And this sniper fire gaffe. Please just admit it came out wrong and put it to rest.

I really think she would be a disaster and Obama shouldn't want to be a part of that mess.

Hillary and Bill are two completely different people. Bill sucked at keeping his Tom cat ways under control, but he mostly did OK with the economy and everything else. I would dislike having him as President again, but I wouldn't be worried. With Hillary in charge I am WORRIED.

[joshcryer]

30. I think he would.

I think it would be a diaster for him not to take it, and likewise, if he didn't chose her as his VP then there will be electablity problems.

[dkf]

32. I don't think Michelle wants to be anywhere near Hillary and so they won't be.

That is one woman who might be tougher than Hillary Clinton.

[joshcryer]

35. She could probably still win without him.

He'd get the offer though.

I don't think she'll win, however. Odds are slim to absolutely none at this point.

The key is that no one *really* considers him the nominee today.

[dkf]

37. I think you will see the MSM start coming out this week after reviewing the numbers.

And the SDs will start to pick especially if she gets more destructive. They don't want to get in her way, but they will be forced to.

[joshcryer]

47. They should end it if they think it's going sour.

Simple.

[emilyg]

40. He would take it.

He's smart enough to look towards the future.

[dkf]

55. That would make me very unhappy.

I really doubt it will come to that though.

If we did I will lose all faith in this system anyway...unless he loses the pledged delegate vote. Then whatever.

[spooky3]

36. why don't people worry about the equal probability of women

or other Clinton supporters getting angry if their votes are blown off?

I think that both Dem. candidates--being far superior to McLame--have strong support from subgroups in the Dem. primaries thus far and will have in the remaining ones. The superdelegates are wise to wait until all the primaries have played out rather than jumping the gun and appearing to blow off the votes of Democrats. I think the Dems. had better work hard to find a fair solution to the Michigan and FL delegate issues -- one that does not reward states for ignoring DNC rules, but also does not disenfranchise or reassign votes of voters. It's a fairness issue, but it is also an issue that the Democrats canNOT afford to enable these states to go for McCain this fall.

[dkf]

39. I don't know any female who supports Hillary.

Then again I don't know anyone who supports her at all.

My precinct went almost 80% for Obama. Hawai'i no ka oi!

[joshcryer]

48. It would be unlikely that you would know such people.

[spooky3]

59. there are hundreds of thousands of them who have voted already

and quite a few here on DU.

[ThatBozGuy]

2. They will June 6th if she doesn't drop out before then........

She is almost out of cash, if she is forced to infuse her "personal" assets again Of which she has to the tune of 15 million in the last 3 months, she will likely end it, the report of this will come out before PA and crucial fundraising will dwindle further, in the same pattern as it did to romney.

[joshcryer]

5. We'll see. I think the SD process will be over time from June 6th until the convention.

[tekisui]

7. They are talking of a "Superdelegate Primary"

To follow the last People's Primary. 80 SuperD's have declared they will not endorse until all state's have voted. 266 are waiting. Why?

Until they endorse, they are highly valued, and highly sought.

[joshcryer]

16. Because the convention is a long way out and neither candidate has a mandate.

A mandate would be a 300-400 delegate lead. Neither candidate has that, and it's impossible for either candidate to have that.

[ThatBozGuy]

27. A mandate is not the burden. It is the burden plus one period

There is no such thing as a mandate in the primaries. There is a number that is the burden period.

[joshcryer]

28. When it's this close that's not how it works.

We're talking about election to the Presidency. Consideration will not be done on some numbers, it will be with careful consideration of all of the variables. This is why many SDs are waiting for the polling to end and many more are not doing anything about it.

So do you agree with me that Obama is in fact not the presumptive nominee?

[ThatBozGuy]

34. That is exactally how it works and Ms Clinton has said so herself,in fact at the begining it was her

Built in super base that she sited as the reason she was inevitable. The burden number for the nominee spot is the lockbox on the nomination, you reach in any denomination you are the Nominee period. The only negotiation at the Convention is then for the VP.

[joshcryer]

50. Neither candidate can win without superdelegates.

Thus neither candidate has a mandate. They require the will of superdelegates to choce the nominee.

[ThatBozGuy]

24. At the close of of voting even if she does REALLY well,he will need less than 120 to finalize 2124

Half that many supers have moved to Mr Obama in the last 45 days. It wont go to the convention.

If it goes like the primaries are predicted with her closing his lead by 30ish rather then doing well, he will only need abut 75
out of 317, its safe to say just by those that have been neutral( Such as Jimmy Carter, Nancy Pelosi) but leaning Mr Obamas way they will close the Nominee and allow the fall contest to begin and not wait for the convention.

The discussion of a Mini convention in june or even a caucus poll (which is legal) has already been raised in the Supers circle so they can solve the issue

[joshcryer]

26. Yes, there's another thread saying if she loses the next states she can't win.

However, that doesn't answer my original question. Wouldn't you agree at this point Obama is in fact *not* the presumptive nominee?

[ThatBozGuy]

31. I would agree with the fact that he is not as of today the presumptive, with one caveat.

I believe she can not make it to PA, both budgetary concerns and and the Main stream media is now asking her to explain why she can continue, and if her answer is she is the "only" one that can win they wont give her that pass.

Mr Obama has not said he is the "only" one that can win, if she takes that stance it will only harm her chances of coming out of the hole.

You can clearly see she is in a hole correct?

[joshcryer]

51. She said that in TX and OH, and managed to win. She would say it again.

For the simple fact that the MSM went with it and created this horse race in TX and OH. She was done in those states two weeks prior.

[rug]

4. Good question.

[avrdream]

6. Good point.

I don't think many of us true Dems feel like Barack has this in the bag yet. The supers who are left to declare strike me as true Dems who really do need to look at the bigger picture instead of just jumping aboard the hope-train.

[2rth2pwr]

8. Because it's not over yet.

[Aussie leftie]

10. Unfortunately, the residents of Michigan and Florida are missing out on this process.

If they had a chance to vote, as all the other states when this process is over, then we would have a better insight as to who has the nomination. Also, it is now starting to come down to which candidate has the most money.

[ossman]

20. I voted. What are you talking about? I haven't heard 1 person from MI or FLA complain.

Only people looking in..... are you one of those people.

Hillary 55% Uncommitted 45%

[ossman]

11. I think they are waiting for the last primary to end. Then they'll speak up.

[tekisui]

13. I think that Obama and Hillary pretty well know who is with them.

It is about timing. Obama may be holding some back to give him boosts from now until PA, and then some for after PA, given that Hillary is expected to win.

He needs them to boost him when negatives attempt to hit him.

[housewolf]

14. They're plotting what sort of "deal" they can make with the nominee

and they aren't ready to play their hand yet.

[Name removed]

15. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[joshcryer]

19. Please leave my thread if this is all you have to contribute.

Thank you.

[OzarkDem]

17. Still a lot of uncommitted Super D's

Its reasonable to assume they are waiting to see how things play out. It could be many of them also feel Obama is an unknown quantity.

[ecstatic]

18. Here is the reason...

:scared:
:scared:


:scared:

[nsd]

23. Because they're a bunch of chickens.

They don't want to be blamed by either side, so they do nothing. The weaknesses of the superdelegate system have really been thrown into sharp relief this season.

[joshcryer]

25. I personally wouldn't decide something so important until I had all the information.

And as long as the people were voting I would consider myself not fully informed.

[Olney Blue]

33. I agree with you. The primaries are not over!

[spooky3]

38. I'll pile on too!

totally agree

[frogcycle]

41. you don't have a clue what SDs are

[joshcryer]

44. Please post with more substance.

Your post didn't explain your position at all.

[frogcycle]

57. it's not a "position"

I have posted it a dozen or so times. It gets tiresome.

the presumption that the SD's are somehow supposed to rubberstamp the primary process is 180 degrees out of whack

they are supposed to think for themselves; assess the prospect of winning, and make decisions based on the that. That is why they were created in the first place. I am not rooting for them to go one way or the other - I am just saying that all this whining that it is "time" for them to bow to the will of the people, blah blah blah is wrongheaded.

[gristy]

42. Why do you think the SD's have not been making their choices?

Maybe you should do a little research and get back to us, since the premise on which your entire OP is based is false.

on edit: Well, I saved you some time. It took me 5 minutes to find the data. Keep in mind my minimum charge is for 1 hour. :D

Go here: http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html
and here: http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html

[joshcryer]

45. The remaining SDs can easily end this. They chose not to. This is a fact.

OK so there's a trickle of SDs coming down every day. That doesn't prove anything. The rest of them are staying out.

[Yes We Did]

43. That want to make as many voters as possible feel like part of the process.

[Drachasor]

46. More exactly, imho, they don't want to be seen as overriding the voice of the people

Right now I could see 40-some joining Obama, to make the number of Super Delegates equal, and that might well happen in the next couple of weeks, given Richardson. A lot more than that would probably unnerve a lot of democrats.

[anonymous171]

49. Because if Hillary somehow makes Obama unelectable, there will be hell to pay for switching on her.

[joshcryer]

53. That's silly.

In fact that convoluted argument would lend to the idea that they should end it sooner rather than later. But they don't. :)

[LordJFT]

52. they're waiting for him to win the pledged delegate majority

[2008]

54. k&r

[BklynChick]

56. Because they know that the American people don't want them to be the final deciders.

[cooolandrew]

58. I feel she should concede because principled people don't believe in supreme court decision.(sd)