Looking good for Kerry!

[Donny247]

All the polling data, despite claims to the contrary, is looking really good for Kerry. Neither Clinton nor Reagan ever trailed their opponents after February of their re-election year. Bush, on the other hand, often trails Kerry in national polls. In addition to this, no President has EVER been re-elected with Right Track/Wrong Track numbers as low as Bush's. His numbers closely mirror Carter and Bush Sr. before their defeats.

Also, this is the first election in recent memory where the Democratic candidate has been able to raise and spend money before the convention, which is a major plus in having Kerry as the nominee. Usually, the Republican is able to bury the Democratic candidate with advertising, putting him ahead in the polls. Bush has spent $75 million in negative ads and all it has done is prevented a feefall. They have nothing else to throw at Kerry, and this scares them shitless.

Don't fret, folks. We've got a real shot at this.

[Mattforclark]

1. Here's a projection updated today...

Electoral Votes: Bush 227, Kerry 311
Popular Vote: Bush 47.13%, Kerry 51.04%

http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

[Bleacher Creature]

2. What a pretty site!

I especially like looking at some of those pink states. Arizona, Colorado and Arkansas are worth Kerry spending his resources in, and Louisiana and West Virginia should go our way.

But the biggest shock to me is Virginia! Winning VA would be about the sweetest thing ever. If come October Kerry is still competitive (or dare I say leading) there, he can pretty much start measuring the White House for drapes.

[Mattforclark]

12. Virginia

Gore only lost it by 8 points, with 2 for Nader. I'm not sure, but I think that was without putting any campaign effort into the state. It's one of the more winnable southern states, but if we take Virginia, we will also take Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana Nevada, Arizona... in short, it would be a Kerry landslide - which looks increasingly possible.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

27. Virginia is still solidly red

I'm here, I see and hear it every day. Virginia will go blue in 12-16 years when the demographics catch up. NoVa is in the process of being swamped with highly educated emigrees from the Northeast, and we all vote for good schools that are allowed to teach Darwin. Right now, we're still in the minority, but as VA becomes less agricultural the voters will be less afraid of the angry thunder gods and more interested in protecting the middle class.

But not yet; not even close.

[Rowdyboy]

4. Looks good, but its pretty optimistic

Just flip Florida and its very close. If you take either Wisconsin or Ohio also, we lose.

This is going to be a nut-cutter of a race. And I really don't think I'm ready for another one.

[belle]

6. It's early yet. It won't look like that in a few months, I'll bet.

Barring an evil miracle, Bush has nowhere to go from here but down; and Kerry has not yet begin to fight.

[Rowdyboy]

8. Damn, I hope you guys are right and Bush is toast..

I just don't see it. I obviously have much less respect for the intelligence of my fellow Americans than you do. For once in my life, I really hope I'm wrong.

[HawkerHurricane]

5. I don't like the looks of that...

the Freepers will look at that, and assume we vote by acreage, and wonder why thier guy lost.

[fujiyama]

7. Never expected

VA as a pink state! And OH and FL both leaning our way?! Damn, can't get overconfident now!

Now, as long as he picks Clark or Edwards...

[HawkerHurricane]

9. And I just visited the site you got this from

Do you know that the guy is a flaming Republican? His 'projection numbers' are biased pro Republican, and he still comes up with a Kerry victory!

I can say two things about this guy:

1. He's honest.

2. It's too bad his choice for President isn't.

[Mattforclark]

11. Yes

"Do you know that the guy is a flaming Republican?"

Yeah, I figured that when he said he thought

"His 'projection numbers' are biased pro Republican, and he still comes up with a Kerry victory!"

It's great, isn't it? :)

[59millionmorons]

15. I like it but,

I can see many of those pinkish states going Kerry.

[Mattforclark]

17. Oh boy, look at this comment...

http://www.haloscan.com/comments.php?user=bloggingcaesar&comment=elections2004comments050804#169954

The disadvantage that our president has is that challengers usually get the bulk of the undecideds. Iraq is not going to go away, even after the handover, and most people trust democrats on the economy, even with the changing numbers on unemployment. Another advantage the Democrats have is that they really, really despise Bush -- partly because of his policies, but also because of the way in which he came to power.
With that in mind, I am really in despair -- UNLESS, and this is my great hope -- that the elctronic voting machines in key states, which are run ny Republican companies, have already been programmed to tilt the election to Bush in key states, like Florida. Also, there's hope that purging of the voting roles will eliminate many eligible Democrats from voting in tight states, such as Florida and also Ohio.
Yes, this goes against "fairness" and all that, but who cares about democracy when freedom is at stake?
lucy kreuger | Email | 05.09.04 - 2:14 pm | #

[Arugula Latte]

20. Priceless!

"who cares about democracy when freedom is at stake?" OMG. "Freedom" and "Democracy" are mutually exclusive in this nutcase's mind!

The other thing, it is so weird to me to see Bush referred to as "our president." I've NEVER thought of that little shithead as anything other than an evil imposter. I want to laugh when people call him "the president." In no way is he deserving of such a title.

[Nicholas_J]

21. Fox News projections

are exactly the oposite. with Bush having EV in the 300,s Kerry in the 200's. It seems every state that is undecided they are giving to Bush even where Kerry is a few points ahead.

[Hippo_Tron]

22. Yes the "Fair and Balanced" Faux news poll never lies...

:eyes:

[stopbush]

3. This is why the media will skew the polls to reflect an illusory

close race for as long as possible. Once it's shown that bush's numbers have taken a substantial hit over the course of a week - ie: 4-8 pts - then it's over...he goes into a freefall and ends up in the high 30s at best.

[pacifictiger]

10. they might be able to skew the polls now

but reckoning day is coming - the truth will be told.

[illistnois]

13. the cia

the cia will still control the voting machines in the end

[Name removed]

14. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Spazito]

16. LOL

Given that the CIA re livid with bush for the outing of Plame, that would be good for the democrats if what you were saying were true. O'Dell is a republican not CIA and he owns Diebold.

[Adelante]

18. Oh, this poor baby

May 8, 2004

Polling data update

Uh oh! The President's numbers have taken a definite hit from the Iraqi prisoner abuse story. As a result, the latest Election Projection shows Senator Kerry with a substantial lead. In fact, it's the biggest lead he's had this year. Adding in state polls doesn't change the result. Kerry's lead right now is pretty solid. He leads by almost 4% in popular vote, 51.04% - 47.13%. The electoral vote picture is even rosier for Mr. Kerry where he now has a 311-227 advantage. Both Florida and Ohio have switched sides since the last update and are now colored blue.

http://www.electionprojection.com/index.html

:evilgrin:

[DaveSZ]

19. :)

I gave our friend Lucy a piece of my mind.

:puke:

http://www.haloscan.com/comments.php?user=bloggingcaesar&comment=elections2004comments050804#169954


We all know that Jeb has been busy disenfranchising about 50,000 of his citizens in Florida.

[blm]

23. Absolutely.

.

[GOPBasher]

24. Encouraging. I keep praying.

:fingers crossed:

[UrbScotty]

25. You're right! Let's just turn it into reality!

They are just polls, of course. But what do you say we make them reality, huh?!

[HawkerHurricane]

26. KICK!

Because it's looking better.

http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

[Sparkly]

28. We can't afford to fail

and it's *great* to see the money rolling in -- and the polling shaping up -- so early!! Once the campaign gets rolling and we get out there as volunteers, I hope it'll be something phenomenal. I want to see the Chimp completely humiliated in a landslide. It is indeed looking good!!