If Obama Can't Win PA?

[RLS21]

He can't win the general election. While Obama could pick up a Colorado or a Virginia against McCain, he will surely lose Ohio and Pa if he can't beat Hillary in those states in the primaries. The same demographics that favor Hillary in the primaries will turn in McCain's favor in the general election.

And Democrats can't win the White House without PA and Ohio, just ask John Kerry.

Our only chance in November is a Clinton/Obama ticket or a second ballot nomination of Al Gore. Of course most Dems prefer their candidate wins the nomination at the risk of losing the Presidency and more damage to the country, so McCain's election is a good bet at this point.

[GarbagemanLB]

1. lol. There's always 2016 Hillary! Don't let the door hit you on your way out.

[Cha]

46. Yeah, your ass is grass, hilary..

[ginnyinWI]

56. The OP is another "concern troll". lovely. n/t

[phrigndumass]

2. another live one (or undead?)

[jgraz]

8. OK, that's gross.

[hisownpetard]

13. God, yeah. Not something I want to click on without warning that it may cause extreme disgust.

[phrigndumass]

21. Removing pic ...

My apologies.

:hi:

[hisownpetard]

31. Ooof. Thanks!

[blm]

3. Kerry won Ohio - Carville sabotaged Ohio Dem voters - who was he working for?

Team Clinton in April2004:
http://www.depauw.edu/news/index.asp?id=13354

TeamClinton on election night?
http://www.tpmcafe.com/blog/coffeehouse/2006/oct/07/did_carville_tip_bush_off_to_kerry_strategy_woodward

[anonymous171]

4. If she wins PA, expect this shit from her 24/7

[Rageneau]

39. What shit? Isn't it TRUE that Obama can't win the GE w/o PA and OH?

Do Obama supporters think he's going to beat McCain simply by winning the states he won from Hillary?

Is he going to build his electoral vote total by carrying states like Wyoming, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina Vermont and Iowa? Nope. Fact is, he will actually win very, very few of those states in the GE.

OTOH, Hillary is very likely to actually WIN most of the big states she trounced Obama in, such as electoral vote-heavy California, New York, New Jersey, Ohio, and (if the DNC would play fair) Florida and Michigan.

Hillary WINS all the above states, plus plenty more.

Obama might NOT win any of those states, all of which are full of "Reagan Democrats."

[anonymous171]

43. NY totally won't go dem, nor California.

Both are repug and racist strongholds, right? :sarcasm:

[lark]

47. NY and CA go Dem,

with either HRC or BHO. Obama just won't win in OH, PA, MI or FL - Hillary probably would.

[cali]

50. bzzzzt.. Just because Hillary wins in PA does not de facto mean

that Obama would lose PA. Same goes for MI. Do try taking a basic logic course.

[ej510]

54. I can tell you this. If the primary was held here now Obama.....

would beat her here in California.

[PaDem]

66. he most certainly can win PA.......

in the general. Howard Dean won the Vermont primary over Kerry in 2004, and Kerry still won the state in the general. Not sure I follow your logic.

[jgraz]

5. Oh yay, another mathtard

*plonk*

[HCE SuiGeneris]

6. *Plonk*

Useless drivel...

Welcome back.

[Quixote1818]

20. Delete. nt

[Quixote1818]

23. Dam, wrong spot again. nt

[ingac70]

7. This is a primary for fucks sake. n/t

[jefferson_dem]

9. No need to be *concerned*. Obama will win the nomination and be our next POTUS!

Cheers!

And welcome to DU, I think. :hi:

[hisownpetard]

10. I absolutely cannot see a joint Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama ticket - not after

the way the Clinton camp has played their cards and fostered division and acrimony in this campaign.

A month or two ago, yes, I would have considered it an intriguing possibility.
Now? No way.

[lark]

48. HRC is t ypical white woman

who would be afraid to be on same st. as Obama - right?

[hisownpetard]

52. You'd have to ask her.

[rockymountaindem]

11. This argument makes no sense because...

nobody has convincingly made the bridge as to why Obama would automatically lose those states to McCain just because he lost in a primary to another Democrat. You're assuming that Clinton voters won't vote for Obama in the general, which is a bad assumption to make. If you consider the outcome of the 2004 primaries, many Democrats didn't get their first choice at the top of the ticket, yet we still united around Kerry/Edwards. Same thing happened in 1992. Why should that not happen this time?

[lark]

49. Obama's words, his chosen associates,

his tactic of disenfranchising voters. Never has a Dem taken a stance of not allowing other Dem's votes to count - UNTIL NOW!

[TomClash]

12. If Billary can't win the most delegates, or the most popular vote or anything else . . . nt

[EFerrari]

14. Kerry didn't lose OH, they STOLE Ohio. And Obama can win it too. nt

[Fredda Weinberg]

15. Welcome to DU. Yes, you make a cogent argument. Silly season

will end and DU will still be here ... some of us actually making sense. The sound to noise ratio is a bit low @ the moment, so ... pay no mind.

[PM7nj]

16. John Kerry won PA

"Those demographics" favored John Kerry, so I'm pretty sure Obama can win PA...

[Rosa Luxemburg]

28. yes

[MH1]

45. Obama will win PA easily.

Unless the Clinton smear machine is used against him in the GE. Then he will have to work at it.

[Quixote1818]

17. Apples and Oranges

Democrats are the only people voting now and most of them will still vote for Obama. In the General Election Independents and Republicans will also be voting. Obama does better with both these groups than Hillary.

There is actually a poll out that shows Obama does better against Clinton in her home state of New York even though he lost to her in the Democratic Primary by a huge number.

[VolcanoJen]

18. Remember when Dukakis won CA, PA, OH, TX, MI in the Democratic Primary....

... and then went on to lose each of those states to Poppy Bush in the general election?

Yeah, I didn't think you remembered that. :-)

[ecstatic]

19. This is Clinton's new meme. I see it being pushed all over the media

Nevermind that Obama has more votes and delegates.

[EFerrari]

24. Really? Where have you seen it?

I must be avoiding all the right outlets, lol!

[slinkerwink]

22. oh, please.

[Quixote1818]

25. Then why is Obama polling better than Hillary in New York against McCain?

You can't compare a Democratic primary to the General Election. Obama will get 98% of Hillary's voters but he will also get more Independents and Republicans than Hillary. They can't vote in a Dem Primary.

[DJ13]

26. Hillary may not be running by the time PA votes

If you'll look at the recent news theres a growing call for her to end her campaign.

Richardson's endorsement of Obama signals the super delegates may not be willing to wait for Hillary to concede, they may force her to.

And the sooner the better for the party.

[Yael]

42. From your lips to the party's ears

[PM7nj]

59. Oh I hope so!

If not, we have a LONG month ahead. Barack and Hillary will be fighting to the death and John McCain will get a free pass on everything.

[TeamJordan23]

27. Don't worry, an Obama/Webb ticket will win PA. nm

[MADem]

29. Popeye is gonna win Virginia. Hampton Roads, Norfolk, Dam Neck, to say nothing

of the massive concentration of military voters in NORVA....


I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but I would be rather surprised if Obama won VA. And I think CO will go red this time, too.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

35. Yeah but NoVA counter-acts the military vote. Plus if Webb is the VP choice

VA will go Blue. Not to mention that Kaine and Warner, who are both quite popular will be campaigning hard for Obama.

[MADem]

36. If Webb is the VP choice, the election is lost. Webb has too much baggage. NT

[Barack_America]

30. *Newsflash* The United States continues beyond the Mississippi River!

There are a lot of states on the *forgotten* side of the country that Dems need to win in in the general election. And guess what, Hillary can't win them.

Tell me her path to POTUS without Wisonsin, Minnesota, Iowa, North Dakota and, likely, Michigan.

[BumRushDaShow]

32. More nonsense propaganda from the Clinton campaign. Clinton has lost.

As another poster indicated, Kerry WON PA and Obama could do so or get close using the same counties that Kerry won (which garnered him enough votes to take the entire state).

Democrats in "blue states" WILL vote for the Democratic nominee in the GE. Democrats in NY, NJ, CA, MA, OH WILL vote for Obama in the GE. They are not going to vote McCain.

Repeat after me - Clinton has lost. Clinton has lost. Clinton has lost. Clinton has lost. Clinton has lost. Clinton has lost. Clinton has lost. Clinton has lost. Clinton has lost. Clinton has lost. Clinton has lost. Clinton has lost. Clinton has lost. Clinton has lost. Clinton has lost. Clinton has lost. Clinton has lost. Clinton has lost. Clinton has lost. Clinton has lost. Clinton has lost. Clinton has lost. Clinton has lost. Clinton has lost. Clinton has lost. Clinton has lost.

[Hepburn]

33. Peddle this crap elswhere, OK?

And while you are at it, if you are really a true DUer...do the following:

1. Show your profile; and

2. Donate ~~ here is the link for that: http://www.democraticunderground.com/donate.html

Until you show yourself to be real, IMO, you are merely a troll spewing for Hillary.

:hi:

[desertflamingo]

68. what on earth...?

... is wrong with you obama people? i've been all over the internet on different blogs and i can say hands down the obama crowd are HORRIBLE. i've been reading this site for many years and found it very informative and sometimes entertaining. i loved it as an alternative to more mainstream sites. but now... it makes me sick to come here. i've avoided commenting over the past several weeks because i did not want to give the haters the time of day, but i'm sick of it and can't hold back any longer.

the spew that comes forth from obama supporters is SO undemocratic, and SO uninformed, biased, nasty, hateful and SO immature... good luck winning the GE with former hillary supporters with this despicable behavior, obamites. you've completely soured me on your candidate, and while i will NEVER vote republican, it's highly unlikely i'll vote for obama IF he makes it to the GE.

me? i'm a TYPICAL WHITE WOMAN who's tired of the blatant and hateful sexism AND racism from the obama camp, the msm and the repukes. i never in all of my voting years have heard or read such hateful, one-sided comments regarding a fellow democratic candidate. sickening.

as for the owner of this site, while i have always been a proponent of site owners being able to set whatever tone they want on their sites, based on the one-sided nature during the democratic primary, i think you should change the site name to obama underground. we are in a primary season of the democratic party, and unless and until one or the other drops out, they are both STILL democratic candidates. whether you agree or disagree with a candidate is one thing, but to disrespect fellow democrat's (not to mention donating du members') candidate preferences by allowing the hate spew in such a filthy way is unforgivable. the bullying and threats to hillary supporters to get off the site, or calling them trolls because they don't bow down at the almight obama feet is more republican-like than democratic.

if what i've been reading on the blogs is representative of obama supporters, i don't want anything to do with the democratic party should he become the nominee. richardson said he was turned off from hillary because of her advisors. well, the obama supporters have guaranteed i will look elsewhere should he take the nomination.

and don't bother threatening me and demanding that i leave this site or donate or whatever since i don't worship obama - because i find it a filthy waste dump of hate; HOWEVER, as long as i'm a registered democrat and as long as there are two democratic candidates... and unless the owner can't take my criticism as it is intended and boots me off, i'll come here whether you like it or not to voice my support for hillary clinton, who i think is the strongest of the two candidates and WILL beat mc cain in the GE.

[Warren Stupidity]

34. Your assumption is flawed.

"The same demographics that favor Hillary in the primaries will turn in McCain's favor in the general election."
No they don't. You have to first prove that Clinton voters will not vote for Obama in sufficient numbers to toss the state over to McCain. All the results will show, assuming that Clinton wins, is that PA voters voting in the Democratic primary preferred Clinton over Obama.

[RiverStone]

37. ...following that logic

PA voters voting in the Democratic primary preferred Clinton over Obama

Voters voting in all the primaries/caucuses in the United States (combined) prefer Obama over Clinton!

Hence, Obama wins!

That makes so much sense.

peace~:)

[MADem]

41. This is not scientific, just anecdotal.

I drive old folks to the polls. I see a lot of them here and there when I am out and about. The D to R ratio is about eight to two.

The Clinton supporters I know will hold their noses and vote for McCain if HRC doesn't get the nomination. Very few "party ticket no matter what" types (which I found rather surprising). VERY few--like maybe two out of many dozens. These geezers do NOT care for Obama. They don't like the Wright guy, they don't like his attitude, they don't like his speeches, and they just don't warm to him.

Keep in mind, we've already voted in my state. We're looking down the road at the general, now.

They're pretty honest with me--I think, anyway--because I don't second guess anyone's reasons. I ask, and if they want to answer, I listen, and I don't put them down for their choices. If they don't want to talk politics, we'll talk grocery prices or sports or stupid news stories. But most of them do talk politics with me, seeing as I'm the Poll Chauffeur.

We'll see what shakes out next November, I guess. It's gonna be a trick to win these folks over, if BHO gets the nom.

[cali]

51. You're right, it's just anecdotal and therefore utterly meaningless

particularly as it comes from your keyboard. Thanks but no thanks.

[MADem]

61. Well, it isn't "utterly meaningless"--it's anecdotal. They aren't synonyms.

Those people said what they said.

Your searing hostility is....er....NOTED, though.

If you don't care for that which emanates from my keyboard, there's always that swell "Ignore" feature you know.

No need to bust a blood vessel, you know--unless you get some sort of perverse kick from getting angry at people over the internet!

[southern_belle]

38. yea, right!

:eyes:

[loveangelc]

40. Yes, because winning a state in a primary = winning it in a general election 7 months later!!!!

Hillary will definitely win TX!!! Obama will lose CA!!!!!

just like bush won CA after winning the CA primary!!!!! Wow!!!!!

[Sulawesi]

44. Cue Colbert's "big state" monomlogue...

[VotesForWomen]

53. the O-bots are convinced that O will win with UT, WY, SC, GA, ID, etc. who needs PA, OH, FL, MI, etc

[ElsewheresDaughter]

55. reality does not exist in their O heavenly realm

and in O heaven there is no November

[Hepburn]

57. Where in the hell do you newbies come up with this bullshit?

Get a clue, OK?

There is a HUGE difference between primaries and the GE. For fucking exmaple: John McCain won the Repubbie Calif primary....he has a snowball's chance in hell of winning the state of California in the GE.

Please...stop posting bullshit like this ~~ I cannot tell you how many stupid threads like this have already cluttered up the GD-P forum.

:eyes:

[ProSense]

58. If Hillary can't win the primary,

she will not be in the general election!

[totodeinhere]

60. That's nonsense.

While Obama could pick up a Colorado or a Virginia against McCain, he will surely lose Ohio and Pa if he can't beat Hillary in those states in the primaries.

If Obama doesn't win the Pennsylvania primary that doesn't necessarily mean that he can't win that state in the general election. Many candidates in previous election cycles have lost primaries in a state only to go on and win that state in the general.

And especially in the case of PA and Ohio, with the economy going further in the tank day by day, I suspect that it would take a miracle for McCain to beat any Democrat in those states.

[ORDem]

62. Thank you for your "concern", now meet the others on my Ignore list.

:eyes:

[Arkana]

63. Primaries != GE.

This argument is fundamentally flawed--and mainly because of the above inequality.

[AllentownJake]

64. Nonsense

This nonsense that is floating out there that if you lose the primary in the state you'll lose the general should stop.

Obama is going to carry NY,NJ,CA,MA,PA, and the rest. The myth that PA is a battleground state is absurd. It hasn't voted for the GOP in a presidential election since 1988. After the primary there will be 4 million registered democrats.

Does any Hillary supporter out there think that Hillary won't carry Illinois, VT, CT, MD, Delaware etc...

BTW John Kerry carried PA by 144,000 votes. I don't know what point you were making there....all you have to do is google it and it tells you in 5 seconds.

[matcom]

65. do you walk around town with an "I'm A Moran" pin on your lapel ALL day?

or do you just reserve it for OUR benefit?

[LordJFT]

67. Your post is based on so many false premises

First of all you seem to think that just because a candidate loses the pennsylvania primary, they will lose pennsylvania general. This is false. People may vote for Hillary over Obama, but then vote for Obama over McCain. I don't know why this is to hard for some people to understand. What really matters is who can win the most independents and republicans in november since most democrats will vote for whoever the nominee is. Second you operate under the assumption that your candidate who was recently polled at a 53% unfavorability rating is more electable than Obama. Though no one knows for sure yet this seems unlikely for obvious reasons. Third, you are yet another poster that has a problem with math. Mathematically if a candidate wins ohio, iowa, colorado and new mexico as well as every state won in 04 (edit:besides pennslyvania) they will win the general election. Obama is ahead of McCain in at least some polls in all these states and is close in Virginia.

[VADem11]

69. Please

If that were true, Bill Clinton would have lost Colorado, Maryland, Washington, Connecticut, and New Hampshire in the general election.