Rasmussen Tracking poll: Kerry - 47, Bush - 43

[ps1074]

This is the first time Kerry has held a three point edge for three straight days since March. Neither candidate has held a three-point advantage for four consecutive days since Kerry emerged as the Democratic frontrunner.

When one candidate holds a "lead" in the tracking poll that vanishes after three days, it suggests that a single night of tracking was especially favorable to that candidate. If a candidate, in this case Kerry, is able to hold a lead for more than three days, it could signify a trend.

http://rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

[lovedems]

1. Now that Kerry is running ads on television, I bet his numbers

continue to climb.

Today was the first day I saw one of his new ads. It was good.

[prodigal_green]

2. He finally broke the margin of error!

I'm liking this. I'd like to see his numbers above 50% for a while though. I think we'll get there soon.

Funny, Bush spends millions of dollars and two months smearing Kerry with the chimp's own feces; Kerry makes noise for a couple of days and squashes the little simian...so it really is just a matter of getting his (President Kerry's) message out. People are desperate for an alternative.

[MallRat]

6. Great sig line!

I guess that makes me an East Coast elitist too.

GYWO should be required reading.

[Az_lefty]

3. Great numbers. Happy Cinco De Mayo!

[Claire Beth]

4. Go Kerry GO!!! n/t

[MallRat]

5. Kerry's been up 3-4 points...

...for 3 days. That shows that the samples have been pretty consistent from day-to-day.

It also shows me that Kerry's slim lead is REAL.

Just think, folks: everyone is screaming that Kerry's people are mismanaging the campaign, he's having trouble stating a simple soundbite-friendly message, the conservatives are attacking his war record on a weekly basis, and Bush just burned through $60M in advertising in an effort to distort Kerry's record.

And Kerry is still LEADING. :-)

Be happy- the rope-a-dope is working. And the new $27M 60-second bio ad rollout will only help.

-MR

[Nicholas_J]

7. He is also reversing BUsh leads in seval states

He is ahead again in Oregon, Ahead in New Hampshire,dead even in Arkansas, a state Bush won by a fair sized margin in 2000, and ahead in Michigan, even though Bush has moved up during his recent visit to that state.

None of this reflects the efects of the news about U.S. military torture of Iraqi's

[Mountainman]

8. No this can't be right, Kerry has no message or charisma

That's what some DUers tell me. So do the wing nut talk show hosts. Nobody is going to vote for a Massachusetts elitist liberal.

[wubbathompson]

9. LOL

Gone from Doom and Gloom to the happiest people in the world, because the "Right-wing" rag Rasmussen Reports says Kerry is winning. I thought everyone here hated Rasumessen last week.

[LabMonkey]

10. only one with Kerry ahead

The rest are not so good.
I deal with numbers everday. Numbers dont lie.
When the trend is this obvious I pay attention.
I think that Nader may have to drop out for Kerry to have
a good chance. Bush gallup approval numbers are exactly the
same as Clinton and Reagan at this same point in time
before their re-election. Carter and Bush 1 were way below the
critical 50% approval.
The reality of the battlefield is neccessary information to
understand how to reach victory.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

NBC/WSJ (5/1-5/3) 46% 42% 5% Bush +4
Quinnipiac (4/26-5/3) 43% 40% 6% Bush +3
Sacred Heart Univ (4/26-5/1) 52% 46% 2% Bush +6
CBS News/NYT (4/23-27) 43% 41% 5% Bush +2
Marist (4/20-23) 47% 43% 5% Bush +4
Fox News/Op Dyn (4/21-22) 42% 40% 2% Bush +2
Democracy Corps (4/19-22) 47% 44% 6% Bush +3
TIPP/IBD (4/14-4/19) 44% 40% 4% Bush +4
CNN/Gallup/USAT (4/16-4/18) 50% 44% 4% Bush +6
ABC News/WP (4/15-4/18) 48% 43% 6% Bush +5
Zogby (4/15-4/17) 44.7% 45.3% 3% Kerry +0.6
Harris (4/8-15) 46% 43% 8% Bush +3

[ACK]

11. Not quite ... look to head to head and the spread has Kerry up front

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html

Head-to-Head Race
Bush vs Kerry

Poll Bush Kerry Spread

RCP Average (4/23 - 5/4) 43.7% 45.3% Kerry +1.6

Go to Link for the full details.

Nader is playing a monster spoiler for Bush in early polls.

He is catching on average 4.5 of the votes.

However, even with Nader

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

The spread is 3.7+ in Bush's favor within the reach of most margins of errors.

RCP Average (4/23 - 5/3) 46.0% 42.3% 4.5% Bush +3.7

Considering this May before the convention against an incumbent President during a time of war.

Hell, that is historically very good news for Kerry.

[malachibk]

12. Look at your dates!

Some of those polls you included are OLD (Harris, Zogby, ABC...)

A LOT has changed in 1 week let alone 3!