Separate the Issues regarding the Obama candidacy

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

I was reading through a thread where information suggesting Clinton is the more electable of the two was met with an argument about the inevitability of the delegate math.

That non-sequitur got me thinking about the fact that these are wildly different issues...

1) Will Obama win the nomination?

2) If nominated, will Obama win in November?

3) Would Clinton win in November (if she were the nominee, however unlikely that may be)?

4) Are there reasons of equity, party unity, and down-ticket voting that would make nominating Senator Obama right, even if it meant accepting a greater chance of losing the Presidency?

Discussion Topic: Assuming hypothetically that Obama would be a better president, and that Clinton would be likelier to win the presidency if nominated (It's a hypothetical!!!)... what is your perception of Obama's "added value." What hypothetical risk-spread do you consider acceptable. Would Senator Obama's superiority warrant nominating him if he had a 5% less chance of being elected... 15%... 50%?

One can even argue that 100% is acceptable; that if Clinton was 100% to win and Obama was 0% to win, one could still argue that losing with Obama is better than winning with Clinton.

Myself, I consider taking on even 1% extra margin of risk is unacceptable, on either side. If God came down and told me that Clinton would be 61% to win and that Obama would be 62% to win, I would switch to Obama without hesitation. But other people might think Obama is worth a certain amount of risk.

[John Q. Citizen]

1. I think Obama has a better chance of winning both the nomination and the GE.

If Clinton wasn't Cliton, she'd have a better chance, certainly, in both the nomination and the GE than she currently does.

So, using a hypothetical non-clintlon Clinton in Hillary's place, yes I think if the non-Clinton Clinton was running, and her odds were a significantly better chance than the authentic Obama, then through the same magic that made Hillary not-Hillary I would annoint the non-Hillary Hillary.

I'm just glad we have a fantastic candidate and he's going to clean McCain's clock.

[elleng]

2. 'Added value?' OY VEY,,

You an economist????