Kerry in the polls, Recent changes:

[Nicholas_J]

Kerry has been ahead in recent Wisconsin Polls, but one the Badger Poll places Bush ahead by double digits:

One Wisconsin poll says Bush leads, another says Kerry
Doyle says we're right where we were in 2000
By CRAIG GILBERT
[e-mail]
Posted: April 29, 2004
With the Bush-Cheney ticket about to pepper the state with campaign visits, two new polls offer very different pictures of the presidential race.

Election 2004

The Poll Puzzle

BUSH 50%, KERRY 38%
Details: Badger Poll of 511 voting-age adults, taken April 20-28 by the University of Wisconsin Survey Center.

KERRY 46%, BUSH 40% Details: St. Norbert College and Wisconsin Public Radio poll of 402 voting-age adults, done about a week earlier (April 14-21).


Badger Poll


Graphic/Journal Sentinel
Bush's Job Rating up a Bit


Related Coverage

2004 Presidential Race



A statewide Badger Poll has President Bush widening his lead over Democrat John Kerry in the past month and ending a gradual slide in his popularity dating back to last fall.

A poll done by the St. Norbert College Survey Center, however, gives Kerry a small lead in hotly contested Wisconsin.

In the Badger Poll, taken April 20-28 by the University of Wisconsin Survey Center, Bush leads Kerry 50% to 38%, with independent Ralph Nader drawing 6%.

On the other hand . . .
In the other poll released Thursday, by St. Norbert College and Wisconsin Public Radio, Kerry leads Bush 46% to 40%, with Nader at 8%.

The St. Norbert survey was conducted April 14-21, about a week before the Badger Poll. The Badger Poll, sponsored by the Journal Sentinel and The Capital Times of Madison, surveyed 511 voting-age adults; St. Norbert surveyed 402.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/state/apr04/226062.asp

But a current Rasmussen Poll agrees with the ST Norbert Poll:


Wisconsin: Kerry 50% Bush 42%

Wisconsin 2004

Presidential Ballot

Bush 42%
Kerry 50%
Other 3%
Not Sure 5%
RasmussenReports.com

April 29, 2004--Senator John F. Kerry holds an eight-point lead over President George W. Bush in Wisconsin. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey in that state found Kerry earning 50% of the vote to Bush's 42%.
When Ralph Nader is mentioned as an alternative, Kerry's lead is cut in half--45% to 41%--with Nader taking 8% of the vote.

There is a huge gender gap in Wisconsin. Bush leads among men by five percentage points but trails among women 54% to 35%. Other research shows that women are less comfortable than men with the President's approach to the War on Terror.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Wisconsin_April.htm


Bush has also lost the lead he had in the last Oregon Poll this week:

Oregon: Kerry 46% Bush 45%

Oregon 2004

Presidential Ballot

Bush 45%
Kerry 46%
Other 6%
Not Sure 4%
RasmussenReports.com

April 26, 2004--Four years ago, Al Gore defeated George W. Bush in Oregon by about 7,000 votes out of more than 1.5 million. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey in Oregon finds that things are just as close today.
John Kerry currently has 46% of the vote in Oregon while George W. Bush has 45%. That single point between them is well within the survey's 4.5 percentage point margin of sampling error.

Adding Ralph Nader to the list has little net impact. With Nader included, both Bush and Kerry attract 43% of the vote while Nader polls at 8%. Without Nader named as an option, 6% of Oregon voters opted for "some other candidate."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Oregon_April.htm

Kerry is also catching up to Bush in Arizona where Bush had a 9 point lead, this is now down to 3 points.

Kerry again with slight lead in New Hampshire where Bush was once leading, and also latest Pennsylvania polls put BUsh and Kerry in a dead heat with both at 42 percent.

Total Electorral votes for states which have had polls give Kerry a 24 point lead in electoral votes over Bush at the present time.

[Direckshun]

1. That's the trouble with close elections.

The best way to keep tabs is to keep up with the scientific polls, not the polls that freaking only tally the votes of 500 students.

[RichV]

3. I think you misunderstand the UW poll

It's not of students, it's by the UW survey group. They're trained scholars and their assistants. I agree this one is way off, but it's not of UW students exclusively or anything. If it were I'd bet Bush would be getting beat in a walk among students at Madison.

Hope I didn't misunderstand your meaning.

[lancdem]

4. Apparently, they also interviewed more Repubs

than the other polls. I think Wisconsin will probably be close.

[still_one]

2. The only thing I wish for if bush wins

is that anyone who voted for him, and who has kids, those kids have the opportunity to visit Iraq...

Let's see how happy these chickenhawks are then