Stop the Presses Mark Shield's is calling it!!

[ACK]

Read it here.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/04/26/crystal.ball/index.html

How to Predict the 2004 election?

Discuss.

Thanks.

Edited for the title so we can discuss the article more.

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[randr]

1. He is stating the same thing I have been

sensing all along.
We won last time. More of us will be voting this time. Less of them are voting for *.

[JAbuchan08]

2. I have always thought of Mark Sheilds as

one of those old-style pundits. I've never been able to muster up much dislike for him; he raises the level of debate, but dirty punditry can undercut him. He's certainly no firebrand, but he's got improved credibility in my book now.

[Jackpine Radical]

3. Here's my prediction, lifted directly from Shields:

John Kerry will be the first former naval officer from Massachusetts to win the White House in 44 years.

[ieoeja]

9. You've found the secret!

Henceforth, the Democratic party should run nothing but a wealthy senator from Massachusettes with the initials JFK who rescued a man in the water under enemy fire while serving as an officer in the United States Navy.

And we'll never see another Republican in the White House ever.

:evilgrin:

Though I never ate there, I was sad to see them close the doors to the restaurant at Clark and Montrose in Chicago that annually won "The Best Gay Mexican Restaurant Owned by a Transexual" Award. I always meant to ask them, "was there ever a runner-up?"

[Trajan]

4. In the Great Constellation of Right Wing Media Freaks ....

Mark Shields hasnt even a blink in that firmament ...

Shield's has ALWAYS been on our side .... If not vigorously, then consistently ....

[ihaveaquestion]

5. I've been saying this for months.

And it almost doesn't matter which Democrat wins the candidacy. A democrat has to win, just be cause Bush will lose so bad.

[readmylips]

6. So Shields is saying that....

a larger group of people who voted for little bush in 2000, will not vote for small man bush in 2004. So far, the democrats voting for small man bush are: zell miller, tony coheolo, donna brazil. The democrats are solidly behind Kerry.

[wryter2000]

7. He stole that from me

I've been saying that for ages.

1) Bush didn't win the last time.

2) No one who voted for Gore is going to vote for Bush.

3) Some people who voted for Bush won't do it again. A few of them will even vote for Kerry.

4) Some Nader voters will vote for Kerry this time.

QED -- Kerry wins.

[AlinPA]

10. In your #3, many of the people who voted for Bush* were Democrats.

That will change in November.

12. Unfortunately, I'm sure some who voted for Gore will vote for Bush

There's no way we can say "noone" who voted for Gore will vote for Bush. There is still a significant number of people who changed their minds about Bush after 9/11 (you know, all that "war president", strong leader patriotic crap), and I'm sure that number includes many Gore voters (not this one.) How many of these people will vote for Bush remains to be seen, but saying none of them will is just not true.

[SharonAnn]

21. There are some Tennesseans who voted for Gore because he's

from Tennessee but will vote for * because he's really more their type.

OTOH, there are people who never voted before who are getting registered and getting involved and working for Kerry because they despise *.

I don't know which group is larger, just that these two groups are here.

23. I guess we won't know until November

I don't know which group is bigger either. You'd think the last 3 years would turn off more voters to Bush than turn them on, but it's hard to really know.

[suzijane]

18. What about the Jewish vote?

This block could be critical in FL and OH. Many Jews, especially elderly ones, are very supportive of Israel and Sharon's methods of dealing with Palestine, and WILL vote for Bush this time, altho they've voted Democratic their whole lives. A lot of my relatives think Bush invaded Iraq as a favor to Sharon, to protect Israel.

[Arugula Latte]

19. Well, let's hope it's partially offset by the Muslim vote

which largely went for Dumbass Dubya last time. That could be especially important in Michigan.

[malachibk]

22. Jews and Muslims are for Kerry

Read it on Zogby (and here)

[WI_DEM]

8. Shields is right

I know of many more people who were for Bush in 2000 who will not vote for him in 2004. Virtually everyone I know who voted for Gore in 2000 will vote for Kerry. Nader supporters I know are split--between voting for Nader again or undecided and maybe leaning Kerry to get rid of Bush.

[FrenchieCat]

11. Doesn't Mark Shield....

Remind you of the Flinstones with a bit a Mr. McGoo?

Fred's head on Barney's body...with Mcgoo's glasses.

I don't listen to what pundits say. Many in the heartland who may have voted for Gore....might be scared right now....so don't underestimate our sheeples!

[DemPopulist]

13. lol

I actually saw Mark in person once, walking through an airport in Florida, and that was exactly my thought. He looked like a live-action Fred Flintstone.

[CatWoman]

14. Yabadaba Doo!!

:D

[Arugula Latte]

20. I saw him a couple times in DC

when I lived there. He gave me a smiling look like, "Yes, indeed I AM Mark Shields of TV fame."

[radfringe]

15. snippet from article

Here are questions you simply ask yourself between now and Election Day:

1) How many people do you know or meet who voted for Al Gore in 2000 and who now say they intend to switch and vote for George W. Bush in 2004, and

2) How many people do you know or meet who voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and now intend not to vote for him in 2004?

=========

my answers:

1) none

2) 12 co-workers that admitted voting for bush* and won't do it again

[spooky3]

16. You have to factor in those who are alienated by all 3 candidates

or who have become cynical or who don't believe voting makes a difference, but who voted for Gore in the last election. I am afraid I know some people in this camp, and they will stay home.

[ACK]

17. I know less of them nowadays than in 2000

Most people realize what is at stake.

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