An eerie but currently possible Scenario...

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

It is the first day of the Democratic convention.

Neither candidate has 2408 pledged delegates (or whatever the number is with MI and FL included), but Obama is very close... within 50 or so, without any supers.

Meanwhile, Clinton leads Obama 62% to 34% in that morning's polling of likely Democratic voters.

Versus McCain, it's Clinton 45% McCain 45%, and Obama 35% McCain 55%.

About 75 super-delegates will vote for Obama no matter what, because they cannot hope to hold their own offices in the fall election if they don't support him.

The band is playing "Nearer my God to Thee" while delegates mill about in their funny hats, stumbling over folding chairs and looking like someone just ran over their dog.

Not a prediction. Just something that is vaguely possible.

[jlake]

1. I feel like that sort of scenario may be very well come to pass.

:(

[Zhade]

29. That's because you haven't taken your meds.

Besides, since when did Clintbots cry over her winning the nom (which she won't)?

[jlake]

32. So you come into a thread, make snarky comments to me about needing meds...

meanwhile you've got some creepy green monster in your sigline..... yeah, okay.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

35. I can handle hate and I can handle cartoons... but that combination is creeping me out.

I had the same reaction you did... there's something unsettling about that dancing elephant troll thing

[jlake]

37. lol - yeah, I don't know what it is... but yeah.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

39. I get it now... it's "Hello Cthulu" (It's supposed to be unsettling)

[olkaz]

47. That is the funniest thing I've read all day

hello kitty = creepy green monster

And THAT makes the poster crazy. I love it!

You are teh winrar!

[jlake]

51. it's not hello kitty it's hello something else... but thanks!

[JeffR]

2. Clinton will poll 62% to Obama's 34% when pigs sprout wings & take skyward

Other than that, it's an interesting scenario.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

14. But if I reversed the scenario it wouldn't be possible.

It's hard to imagine any scenario where Clinton had the nomination all but clinched without supers, so the disconnect between delegates and electoral prospects couldn't arise in that direction.

I was thinking today that people keep saying this is like 1968, but 1980 is equally possible.

Those are our only really fucked up conventions we have as examples, at least within memory.

[JeffR]

20. That's fair enough

it's been a long time since a brokered convention. But it's not unprecedented, and not necessarily disastrous.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

22. Best outcome I can imagine is

private deal... Clinton/Obama with Hillary agreeing to not run for re-election

Best for the party. Probably best for both candidates too.

Obama would be STRONG as a sitting VP. I suspect he might lose this year, though, and he would never be able to run again.

(Any Dem that loses this year will be the most hated person in the party.)

Not going to happen, but that's what I think would maximize our chances.

[JeffR]

25. If Obama is the nominee this year and somehow doesn't win

I can see him running again. As for Clinton, I think it's this cycle or never for her. I'll vote for either, though I like him better. I'm prepared to be somewhat disappointed with either, but encouraged, overall. I'm too old to believe in the promised land of real progressive control over the government. I'll take either them for the sake of incremental progress and some damage control, but I don't expect much more from either of them.

[Zhade]

31. She didn't earn the top slot, so - no.

NT!

[jackson_dem]

27. Obama lost 7 points overnight just yesterday

I wonder why...

[JeffR]

28. because the polling data is volatile and suspect, no matter what it shows

and despite the fact that it seems to have taken an eternity so far, it's still pretty early. Obama will be fine, & remains in the catbird seat for now. Clinton's in pretty decent shape too. This isn't the Rapture or anything.

[jackson_dem]

34. They were pretty consistent until yesterday

And keep in mind this is a three day tracking poll. His seven point drop means he was down a lot more on the newest day in the poll.

The numbers for each day since 3/8

H 46, O 45
H 47, O 45
O 46, H 44
) 48, H 41
O 47, H 42
O 48, H 41
O 50, H 42
O 46, H 45

[JeffR]

36. I still don't take these tea-leaves as very convincing

I'll worry, but not much, if the results a week from now still have any serious-looking negatives. No big thing right yet, or at all.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

49. and increased his delegate count by 14! Not too worried here.

[misanthrope]

3. Might be the best thing...

...that has happened to American progressivism in a long time.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

6. Sometimes I think that, but I'm a single issue voter

Civil Liberties... 100%.

And Congress will never protect the Bill of Rights because the people do not support the Bill of Rights.

So I can never countenance a Republican making judicial appointments.

But I am pretty sick of the stylistic fight to the death between two candidates with the same positions.

[JoFerret]

9. To lose another election you mean?

A bit Marxian that.

[misanthrope]

42. How do you think the POTUS will look...

...if gasoline is nearing $8 a gallon in 2012? As long as India and China continue on their current path, it's not out of the picture.

How do you think that will effect the American economy?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

45. There is a real possibility that the 2008 winner is a guaranteed 1-termer

There are some rude wake-up calls on the horizon

But the 2008 winner will probably get three SCOTUS appointments... I just can't get around that.

[misanthrope]

46. That IS worrisome**nm

**

[Zhade]

33. When Clinton finally gives up her lost cause? I agree.

NT!

[Joe the Revelator]

4. Getting a little ballsy with your numbers there, Chief.

[sueragingroz]

5. the pledged delegates don't have to worry about keeping their jobs

[wileedog]

13. The quickest way for the Superdelegates to lose their jobs

would be to go against the pledged delegates.

[musicblind]

7. I would HOPE that if that happened the supers would have enough sense

to give the nomination to Clinton. But I cannot imagine Obama having 34% and Clinton 62%. That seems a bit much, even if the Wright scandal turns out to be the biggest deal in the universe. However, IF it happened then the supers need to give Clinton the nod. We'd be shooting ourselves in the head at that point, nothing would be worth it. Again, however, I don't see any scenerio that would produce such drastic shifts in the polls short of Obama explaining to the public that he is an alien from another planet sent to devour the eyes of human babies. But... you never know, the American people have proven me wrong before.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

10. I forgot to mention the 400,000 protesters ringing the convention center

ready to rush the hall at the first rumor of a Clinton nomination.

[musicblind]

12. I honestly hope the dem party would not let that happen.

If mobs held the democrats hostage it would send a horrible message to America and the rest of the world. Still this is interesting food for thought. so I rec'd the thread.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

18. I would enjoy a job as one of those think tank speculative thinkers who

are supposed to think through really weird long-shot scenarios.

One thing we know is that the Democratic Party never thought very hard about this stuff. It was assumed a truly competitive primary season was a thing of the past.

For instance, stripping FL and MI was intended to be embarrassing and insure they had no meaningful say in the process because OF COURSE we would have a nominee by Super Tuesday.

Nobody would have stripped those delegates if they thought there was a chance of them actually being needed to pick a nominee.

I have to admit, I no longer have a handle on what's likely... this is all getting kind of surreal.

[JohnnyLib2]

21. IMO, this one is unpredictable and your scenario can't be ruled out.

However--this is GD-P, decidedly not a think tank, and I fear for your life!! :evilgrin: :hi:

[quakerboy]

41. Would that really be the worst thing ever?

Honest question. The protests in France seem to do a better job of keeping their politicians honest, or at least of getting better results for the people. Then again, I admit a limited knowledge of French politics.

[misanthrope]

43. France ain't the USA...

...This nation has a serious aversion to activism.

[quakerboy]

53. And thats the basis of my question

If the people feel that the choice made is incorrect and decide to get a bit more activist, would that really be such a bad thing to have it start there?

I just wonder. The phrase I have heard used several places is along the lines of "in the US, the people are afraid of the politicians. in France the politicians are afraid of the people". Although my knowledge of France is admittedly sparse, their models certainly sounds more appealing, at least at the top.

[reggie the dog]

44. you are correct

we do not always win, but we go on strike and demonstrate often. Sometimes we win outright and the goverment chooses not to do the reform they wanted to or they give us the reform we want, other times we get some concessions and sometimes we lose, but here in France we go on strike often, there is a strike on Tuesday as a matter of fact. Teachers want raises and more funding for schools. I will be in the streets protesting.

[Danger Mouse]

52. wouldn't that destroy clinton's chances, though...

when the vast majority of black voters, feeling betrayed and disenfranchised by a party they have steadily supported for DECADES, decide to stay home?

[TheDoorbellRang]

8. "Pay no attention to the delegate count or the popular vote"

whispered the erie voice holding the microphone on the stage. "The national poll du jour has spoken, and has proven its infallibility and unmalleability over months at a time."

The democrats with their long faces exchanged looks with their fellows, burst into laughter, and put Obama well over the top with 2400 votes.

[Johnny__Motown]

11. Why do you think such low poll numbers for Obama are reasonable? Clinton can't get to 60%,

Not vaguely possible. sorry not even close

[ElsewheresDaughter]

15. sounds just about how it will go down...except for ( crossing fingers) the mob outside BOOKMARKED

[musicblind]

23. I wonder about that

I talked to my mother over breakfast this morning about what would happen if Hillary won. Would there be riots? Looting? Celebration? Nothing? I am hoping for one of the last two obviously. Like I said, it would be shameful if an angry mob that was not representative of the American public were to hold the democratic party hostage.

[Steely_Dan]

16. And from behind the curtain comes...

Joe Biden.

-P

[ElsewheresDaughter]

17. LOL

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

19. Hooray!!!

I have not been taking this party too seriously since they dumped Biden in Iowa... makes me wonder whether winning in November was ever part of the plan.

(Hillary is no electability picnic, either. I shouldn't put everything on Obama.)

[Steely_Dan]

26. I Agree...

Neither one of these candidates are a shoe-in. We will fight battles we didn't have to fight. Biden would have not only wiped the floor with McCain...he would have gone down as one of the great Presidents of our time.

-P

[katandmoon]

24. B-b-b-b-but...Obama is so good, so noble, so verily Jesus-like...

He'd sacrifice himself for the sake of the greater good and step down at that point, wouldn't he?

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[greyghost]

30. LOL

[anigbrowl]

38. Doom, gloom, trollery

This is so lame it needs its own crutch. Why don't you add in the fact that Obama has since grown wings, horns and a tail live on national TV.

[JeffR]

40. The poster is not a troll

over-agitated maybe, but not a troll.

[Vinca]

48. That is a ridiculous scenario. It is highly unlikely Hillary's

favorable ratings will skyrocket just before the convention, unless she sends every Democratic household a personal check for a hundred bucks. Uh oh - I shouldn't be giving her ideas.:rofl:

[IndianaGreen]

50. I think it is more likely to see Bush in bed with a young boy than the scenario you described

Anything is possible, but it is not probable.