Why will Bush* lose in November?

[rockymountaindem]

Please tell me why you think that Bush* will lose in November. I'm not disheartened because of polls, or a trend in the electorate or anything (though I did have a bout of temporary insanity yesterday http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x509484), I'm just worried that there will be enough people out there who swallow the Repub. bull about how Dems are weak, etc. I don't mean to be a messenger of gloom, I just want to hear why you think he'll lose.

A lot of people say things like "I don't hear anyone defending him anymore" or "so many Republicans will vote for Kerry this year", but I don't know if that adds up to a real trend.

I'll admit my biases. I come from Colorado Springs, which as anyone else from Colorado knows is wing-nut headquarters. Many of you would be surprised, but you can actually make friends with them even if you disagree with their views. These people would never vote for a Democrat even if someone like Jean-Marie LePen was running as a Republican. As a result, I don't usually hear stories about long-time Republicans turning against Bush*. These people aren't kool-aid drinkers, just the children of the Republican wasteland, if you will.

Therefore, I come to you, citizens of the Real World (i.e. not Colorado Springs) asking for your ideas on why Kerry will really win this thing. I mean registration numbers, get-out-the-vote drives, EC strategies, target demographics etc. Please help an isolated person get some real perspective.

[WI_DEM]

1. he will lose only if Kerry

agressively goes after him on Iraq and his credibility.

[Fovea]

2. Consistency

This administration has consistently plucked defeat from the jaws of victory.

The only thing worse than losing in a bad way is winning in the worst way, and that is the story on Iraq, the Economy, Oil, and Ashcroft/Cheney/Rumsfeld, the unholy trinity in Bush's firmament.

And if Bush got rid of them, what point would there be for Bush to be in the white house?

[dammit905]

3. Bush can't win an unrigged election

I'm sick of hearing people talking about "Yeah, but the republicans have rigged the voting machines anyways.." with light-hearted dread. Bush isn't going to beat Kerry legitimately, the guy's spending his heart out and remaining stagnant in the polls. He's got nothing to run on. But seriously -- what are we doing about the voting machines? Anything at all? I'd love to know if anyone has any info... www.blackboxvoting.com doesn't really leave me any more assured.

[wryter2000]

7. Welcome, dammit

Barring a rigged/stolen election (I know, that's not a safe assumption)...

1) he didn't win the last time
2) Nader doesn't have the backing of the Greens this year. No matter what he shows in the polls, large numbers of people aren't going to write him in if he's not on their ballots
3) Bush has lost support. Not from his base, for sure. But from moderates and independents. I personally know 5 people who voted for him before who won't do it again. Only one of those, for sure, will vote for Kerry, but * can't afford to lose any votes given 1) above.

That doesn't make it a shoe-in, of course, but I don't think he can win an honest election.

[lindashaw]

4. If he really does lose, I think it will be because outside factors

like the war and the economy have brought him down. I'm a tad dismayed that Kerry is not more uniquely his own man. I think he's a good man, but I guess I'm saying I wish he was direct like Dean.

There's a lot to be said, however, for the pain of the people. If it reaches a high enough crescendo, it can drown out the stalwarts of the right: die-hards and evangelicals. Historically, the only real thing you can count on is impoverishment of the pocketbook.

Wish I could be more encouraging. I'm discouraged, myself.

[apnu]

5. * will lose because...

... there are a lot of P.O'd people in the US right now.

Run of the mill conservatives and fiscal Conservatives are appalled with * and his free spending ways. They want to reduce spending and reduce taxes, and * is doing neither of those things. Combine that with the purge currently going on in the 'pug party by the necons to eject everybody they can't who don't buy the B.S. and don't toe the line. Those that complain or voice opposition to the necons in the party are de-funded by the neocon element. Conservatives (not neocons) are doing a lot of soul searching right now, and many are defecting to Kerry for this election.

Women are P.O'd at him for his crass attitude towards every single issue women have.

Minorities are disenfranchised with * because of his habit of ignoring minority issues and the FLA 2000 theft of their voices.

Liberals are P.O'd naturally, and I doubt I have to explain why.

If we can get all of these groups working together to defeat *, then we have a land slide victory!

[Taylor Mason Powell]

6. Allright, I'll give this a shot...

Here's why I think Bush* will lose in November:

Gore got something like half a million more votes than Bush* in 2000. How many of the 2000 Gore voters (i.e., the majority) do you see switching to Bush* this time around? I would venture to say very very few of them. And even the vaunted "rally round the flag" effect of 9/11 isn't going to change enough votes come November.

Of course, the electronic voting thing scares the crap out of me...as well as the possibility of another "terra" attack.

[wryter2000]

8. Welcome, Taylor

:hi:

Lots of newbies today. Good to see.

[Taylor Mason Powell]

10. Thanks!

But I'm not really a newbie... it just looks that way because I have a low post count. I've been here off and on for a couple years now actually. Some months ago I changed my handle (when DU upgraded its software or whatever) and then kinda forgot about DU for a while...just recently re-discovered it.

I should have a sig line saying "No welcome needed! Proud Evil-DUer since 2001!" or something like that.

But I do sincerely appreciate the welcome.

:hi:

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. Did you watch the Womens Demonstration in DC yesterday

It was, accoring to the organizers 1.5 million strong. Assuming the organizers are right (and there are many reasons the media under played it), this is the largest demonstration in DC in modern history.

That son is the level of anger in the nation.

That is why Bush will loose in November.

That is what is happening in large and small ways across the nation.

And yes this also means repukes are slowly turning, some have turned and will vote Democratic, many for the first time in their lives.

There is another reason, and again I will ask you to look at anything you can find on the History of the revolt of 1800, what American Historians have also called from time to time "the Second American Revolution." This is what is going on right now, this is the Third American Revoution.

You are blessed, or maybe not, to be living the Chinese Curse, aka may you live in interesting times....


Now if Bush wins in November, due to rigged elections... I see a Civil War in the not so distant future. Oh and I live in Freeperland in Cali, and I hear the discontent from REPUBLICANS... you just have to catch them when they are unguarded. Also, if you truly want to get what they truly think, don't blame the GOP (when you talk to them) but Bush... and it will be surprising to you what they will tell you. I did that with my local freeper friend, and he was the one to admit that bush was not a Conservative... and he may either stay home or gasp, vote for Kerry.

[apnu]

12. one small correction...

... Janeane Garofalo said at the end of the protest that they counted 1,100,050 people... that's 1.1 million. Not nit-picking, just correcting stated facts so we keep the truth running high here. I'd hate to have a freeper show up in this post and start crying because an extra 400,000 people are attached to the figure.

[nadinbrzezinski]

13. I went from their PR release

which was posted on the net... corrections are not surprising, they never are, and freepers will not understand

[apnu]

15. all of which is true...

... I just don't want to give them one bit of extra ammo, no matter how small. BTW, I haven't seen the PR, so my apologies.

[VOX]

11. The GOP has spent $60 million in the past few weeks to attack Kerry...

But the polls have not really moved significantly.

All this is **without** Kerry swinging back that much, or going on the offensive in full-power mode. There are more than 6 months before the election is held, and at present, Kerry's walking the fine line between keeping his image shored up and not peaking too soon.

When the campaign gets underway in earnest, with an appealing VP pick to come by Memorial Day (per the stated Kerry timetable), look for him to take a lead in the polls.

Enough of America has had it with * and cronies that they will be evicted come November.

[Gothmog]

14. Bush is slowly self destructing

The massive spending has masked this to some degree. There are two main reasons why Bush will lose in November. First, Iraq and second the economy. To a large degree, Bush has staked his political fortune on Iraq and things there are not likely to get better soon. There is simply no way that the body count can continue at the current pace and there not be some fallout. Our troops are great but their advantage is negated to a large degree by urban warfare.

The June 30 turnover of sovereignty is a joke and will not change anything. If anything, this artificial time table may really damage what remains of Bush's credibility.

The economy is not helping Bush and even there is a legitimate turnaround on the horizon, it is probably too late to help Bush. I do not see significant jobs being created. What every limited kick that the tax cuts were suppose to provide is gone. Unless there are significant real jobs created between now and August, the economy alone is en ought to defeat Bush just like it defeated his daddy.

On balance, I feel good right now.

[lapfog_1]

16. Let's look at things a bit objectively

Reasons * will win in November.

1. majority of Americans believe that the war in Iraq is the same
as the war on terror, that Iraq was the source (or assisted) 9/11.
Must stay the course.

2. Many Nascar dads (and other red state / red meat) Americans believe
that * is a stronger war president than Kerry (never mind their
own service records)

3. There is an unholy alliance of corporate war profiteers, corporate
greed mongers, Evangelical Christians, and conservative Jews
(the Neocon movement is a Jewish - actually American Likud -
movement)

4. * has a receptive media with few outlets of opposing views,
especially cable and radio. Liberals have some pull on the network
news and on the internet. However, most liberal news outlets try
to be both fair and accurate, the conservative outlets don't care
about any of that.

5. * has raised more money than anyone thought possible, and has
already spent more money than the was spent by the * campaign
in the entire 2000 election. * was unopposed in the primaries.

6. Nader MAY provide an outlet for those who are of the extreme
left, or Kerry may cause them to sit it out. Their view is that
the pendulum of American politics will not swing back to the left
while conservatives run hard-right candidates and the left runs
middle to slight left candidates. In other words, we won't elect
a progressive until we've had a complete bellyfull of
conservatives (I've been to a few meetings where this was the
common accepted worldview).

Reasons why Kerry will win

1. There may yet be time to convince American people that Iraq was
an "elective" war, and had nothing to do with 9/11 or any other
reasons.

2. Deficits do bother people in the abstract, especially if they
cause a rise in interest rates which directly affects pocketbooks.

3. * has united middle and left liberal and some fiscal conservatives
more than anytime in recent memory (even more than Raygun).

4. It's still the economy, stupid. Despite all of the "wonderful"
economic recovery news, most people have seen a real eroding of
their buying power and feel less, not more, comfortable about
keeping their jobs.

5. Some more apolitical folks are waking up to the loss of their
freedoms... especially their freedom to sin (gamble, porn, etc).
"You can pry my DVD of Girls Gone Wild from my cold, dead hands"
may well be a 2004 battle cry.

6. Americans LIKE a split and hobbled Federal government (where each
of the two elective branches are controlled by opposites). This
has been the recent historical model, and people like it. They
are afraid of single party control.


I think it's too close to call... and, unfortunately, ties go to *
(either through BBV or the courts).

But I remain hopeful.

[forgethell]

17. I hate to drive you to despair, but

I am not at all certain tha * will lose. part of that is because I live in a very conservative state, and most of the people I know are conservative. Part of it is because, the polls show his support to be strong. part of it is because he is the current occupant of the White House and can control the flow of events to a certain extent. Part of it is because al-Queda paartisans may look at their success in frightening Spain into throwing out their pro-war government and try it in America. I don't think there is any surer way to cause Americans to vote for *. And even if they don't do it, the WH can manufacture an incident, a 'near miss' to manipulate things, can't they? So, unless the base is motivated and turned out, I think * has a good chance of winning.

This doesn't even include fraud, BBV, etc.

[cally]

18. Kerry will win

because:

1. Jobs, jobs, jobs. Not only have folks lost their jobs, but too many have lost benefits and are working in lesser paying jobs.

2. Healthcare and Social Security. Seniors are pissed and they vote.

3. Expectations are that the price of food and energy will increase dramatically this summer.

4. Interest rates are artificially low. They may start creeping up before the election.

5. Iraq. Unfortunately, I don't see much hope of things getting better there. An endless summer of dead Soldiers will take a toll.

6. Scandal after scandal. Drip, drip, drip. Eventually it has to whittle away the public's trust.

7. If Dems are seen as weak on defense in a month or so, then Kerry should pick Wes Clark.

8. Dems are united and pissed. I've never seen so many willing to support the nominee and work for him. I think turnout will be huge.