IBD/TIPP Poll: Bush 44 - Kerry 40 - Nader 4

[TheStateChief]

http://www.investors.com/editorial/general.asp?v=4/20

...New national polls, including one by IBD/TIPP, show President Bush moving back ahead of challenger John Kerry in the volatile presidential sweepstakes, with IBD results also suggesting that some key Kerry backers are rethinking their positions.

...But the latest IBD/TIPP results uncovered a new dynamic: A large number of voters are having second thoughts. In the three IBD/TIPP polls taken in March, the average share of "undecided" voters was 7.7%. That number shot up to 13% in the current poll.

...The biggest increases in undecided voters came in five key demographic groups:

• White women, whose undecided votes jumped from 6% in the previous poll to 16% this month.
• Independent voters (12% to 20%)
• Democratic-loyal, or "blue," states (9% to 16%)
• Swing states (6% to 13%)
• Under $30,000 households (9% to 17%)

...The poll also shows that Kerry has lost some ground in blue states as well as in swing states. In blue states, his margin has narrowed from 15% to 12%. In swing, or "battleground" states, Bush erased Kerry's 3-point lead and is now ahead by 6%. Among Independents, Kerry's lead has slipped from 4% to 1%. Bush is gaining among households with incomes in the $50,000-$75,000 range (where the president padded his lead to 22 points from one point, rural voters (who swung 17 points), white men (15 points) and in the Midwest (where Bush erased a 10-point deficit and now leads by three.)

[WI_DEM]

1. these polls in all likelihood

will be going back and forth throughout the spring and summer.

[PATRICK]

2. Results raise questions of skewing

Are these numbers reflecting the mush minds affected by Bush negative ads? Mush will not win Bush votes, only dampen Kerry support. Yet Kerry has not really begun to reach these people. the vital momentum has not occurred yet simply because it is too early.

That means that ALL polls who are very fraudulent with regards to pushing the mush are giving false pictures at this point. The movement that occurs when votes "solidify" will say it all. What they are afraid to say is that in all likelihood, Kerry will simply take that momentum along with a better core of Bush haters and united motivated Democrats to manhandle Bush. Bush might not have a Goldwater moment or Mondale flame out at the Convention. He is being given and is portraying the picture of false hope with reliance on likely cheating. All his other positives are weaker than that simple meme which, under the campaigns' radar is what is really circulating in the streets.

Bush can meltdown or seek to shore up the illusion. What happened to Dean may happen to him(lousy speaker and miserable human that he shows himself to be) multiplied many times over.

I hope he drags down all the trash in the country with him like a political Black Hole. Incidentally, conservative scientists laughed at the idea of astronomical black holes. It wasn't as if there were any nearby to demonstrate the awful effects. This political Black Hole is among us and harms us all indiscriminately.

[cally]

3. This is reassuring

It appears that the polls changed because Kerry supporters moved into undecided. * spent $50 million raising doubts about Kerry while Kerry basically vacationed. So the net effect is that folks need to be sold on Kerry. If Dick Morris is right (I know his politics) and 85 percent of undecideds break for the challenger, then Kerry is in fine shape.