Republican battle in Pennsylvania primary could threaten Bush's hopes

[T_i_B]

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/story.jsp?story=513615

It started out as a run-of-the-mill Republican primary. But Pat Toomey's challenge for incumbent Arlen Specter's Senate seat in Pennsylvania has turned into a civil war between the party's centrist and conservative wings, in which control of the Senate, and even of the White House, could be at stake.

A week before Tuesday's vote, the two contenders are criss-crossing the state, setting out their very different positions, in a contest which has dragged in President George Bush. For the moderate Mr Specter, who is seeking a fifth six-year term in the Senate, his upstart conservative rival - currently a sitting Congressman - is "not far right, he's far out". To which Mr Toomey, pro-life, anti-tax and an ardent de-regulator, replies by calling himself the candidate of "the Republican wing of the Republican party".

The race, according to a new survey, could hardly be closer. Only 10 days ago Mr Specter enjoyed a massive financial advantage and a comfortable 15 per cent lead in the polls. The margin has now shrunk to 5 per cent among likely Republican primary voters, in statistical terms a virtual dead heat.

So much importance does the White House attach to the result that Mr Bush turned out for a Specter fundraiser in Pittsburgh on Monday. But the momentum is with Mr Toomey. While Mr Specter has been forced to spend $7m (£3.9m), half his total campaign war chest, his opponent has been raking in money from ultra-conservative Republican groups.

[No Mandate Here.]

1. That this is news in Great Britain

is pretty cool. Good post! Until a few days ago, it seemed that just about everyone was conceding the re-election to Specter.

I hope the Rethugs get so polarized here that it really does have an effect. With * so heavily involved, this has to be a referendum on his policies.

[buddy22600]

2. they are standing in a circle

and pointing their NRA memberships at each other about to pull the triggers.

[skooooo]

3. I don't get it....

Why is Bush supporting Specter, when he's one of those ultra-conservative Bible thumpers?? Anyone got a better understanding of the politics involved?

[T_i_B]

4. The article explains more.

The stakes are not just ideological. This November, Republicans will be defending a slim 51-48 majority in the Senate. With his appeal to moderates and independents, Mr Specter would be expected to hold his seat comfortably in November. Mr Toomey would probably have a much tougher fight - although his supporters point out that Pennsylvania's other Senate seat is held by another out-and-out Republican conservative, Rick Santorum.

The outcome could have a bearing on the presidential vote as well. With its 21 electoral college votes, Pennsylvania - which Al Gore narrowly won in 2000 - is top of the Republican list of target states this time around. Party strategists believe Mr Bush would have a better chance of capturing it if a centrist like Mr Specter also features on the Republican ballot. For that reason, Mr Bush took time out to endorse Mr Specter in person at this week's fundraiser.

And even for this most conservative President, Mr Toomey is probably too much of a good thing. His biggest financial backer is the Club for Growth, an anti-tax group which has criticised Mr Bush's substantial tax cuts as inadequate, and has fallen foul of Karl Rove, the President's powerful political adviser.

[WI_DEM]

5. If Specter loses primary

that would be big news and in primaries the base is more likely to turnout which is the right wing.

[Monte Carlo]

6. Anyone know if Toomey could win in PA?

I know next to nothing about PA politics, but I still hope that something like this could work to the Democrats' advantage.

[Mattforclark]

7. I'm hoping that Toomey wins the primary

and then gets himself crushed in the GE by Hoeffel.