Hillary pounding Obama by 19 in PA now (link)

[Greenwood]

She WILL have a strong case to make the be the Dem nominee.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=c9ce82e9-4cb0-4b64-983c-509ce4fc0ee6

[TwilightGardener]

1. Because of one state? Uh, no.

[Yes We Did]

29. Didn't they get the memo? That state doesn't count... Cuz I said so.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

2. I don't think she has a strong case

[NJSecularist]

3. If this holds, she is making a very strong case.

Yes, Obama leads in pledged delegates, but Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania are all vitally important states we need to carry in November.

[lapfog_1]

22. Oh please, not that nonsense again

doing better in any given state in the primary does not indicate anything about the GE.

You think that Wyoming is going to go for either Obama or Hillary in November? Really?

To see how a race will run in November, do heads up polling between Hillary and McCain and compare to heads up polling between Obama and McCain... and tell me the states that Hillary wins that Obama loses in those polls.

[NJSecularist]

26. Why bring Wyoming into this?

We have no chance in Wyoming. But we do have a chance to win Ohio and Pennsylvania, those are very important states in the general election, and how one performs in heavily contested primaries in those states should determine who is the best candidate for the general election in each state.

[lapfog_1]

27. Not really.

And we should get out of the old red state / blue state mentality... otherwise you will spend all your time in Florida or Ohio... when there are plenty of other states that could flip this year IF WE RUN THE RIGHT CANDIDATE.
And that would NOT be Hillary. She, deservedly, has the highest negatives of anyone running.

Not to mention, Zellary Clieberton is no longer a Democrat. Period.

[Elidor]

59. You're exactly right about red state/blue state mentality

I take it you're a fan of the Doctor, too.

[milkyway]

39. Wrong. Winning a vote of dem voters does not mean you're more able to win in the general.

Obama may be the second choice of the majority of Dem voters in some states, but he won't be running against another Dem in November, he'll be running against a republican. He'll still get Dem votes, plus he'll draw a larger percentage of indies and repugs than Clinton would.

And unlike the primaries, most (or all) of the voters won't be Dems. There's a reason why Obama is consistently stronger than Clinton in a matchup with McCain. In 2004 Kerry vs Bush, Dems were 37% of the electorate, repugs were 37%, and indies were 26%.

The OP references Survey USA, who a few days ago released a 50-state poll of Obama vs McCain and Clinton vs McCain. Here's a few states of interest:

Nevada: Obama beats McCain by 5, Clinton loses to McCain by 8

New Hampshire: Obama +2, Clinton -8

New Mexico: Obama +7, Clinton even

Texas: Obama -1, Clinton -7

Note that Clinton won the popular vote in all of these states. Yet she fairs significantly worse in November. And here's the two states you are so concerned about with Obama:

Ohio: Obama +10, Clinton +10

Pennsylvania: Clinton +1, Obama -5

Clinton does do better in PA, but not by a large margin. And the state would still be very winnable for Obama.

Here's the links to Survey USA's head-to-head polls and to a thread of mine about them:

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/03/06/electoral-math-as-of-030608-obama-280-mccain-258/

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/03/06/electoral-math-as-of-030608-clinton-276-mccain-262/

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=4988094

[milkyway]

37. No, they're vitally important states that Hillary would need to carry. Obama can compete and win

on a much bigger playing field, so he's not forced to win the same three states that Dems have needed the last few cycles.

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/03/06/electoral-math-as-of-030608-obama-280-mccain-258/

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/03/06/electoral-math-as-of-030608-clinton-276-mccain-262/

[Obamaniac]

40. Hillary supporters are so stupid

This isn't about expectations anymore. It's about delegates. Plain and simple. Whoever has more delegates at the convention wins.

Obama will certainly have a lead among pledged delegates, probably by 150 or more.

He'll win in North Carolina and Indiana which will offset whatever win Hillary has in Pennsylvania (after all NC and IN combined have more delegates than Pennsylvania).

Obama is only 30 to 40 super-delegates away from Hillary now. Every week his vote increases among super-delegates. I think he will be caught up completely by Pennsylvania, if not weeks sooner.

Then what? Shall we change the whole nominating process at the very end to count only the delegates of three or four states because those were the states that Hillary won?

Hillary wins the states with the big Democratic machines. She was the "insider" candidate from the beginning. She also had strong support among Hispanics and won all the southwestern states for that reason. Obama has won every where else.

By the time this is over, Pennsylvania or not, Obama will have won the most votes, the most states and the most delegates. That's why he'll be the Democratic nominee.

So you Clinton supporters can keep spinning all you want, you can keep fooling yourselves all you want. That's just the way it's going to be.

[goldcanyonaz]

47. The poster you assume is a Clinton supporter is an Obama supporter.

One who happens to be objective.

Spin that.

[Obamaniac]

64. Who said I was responding to the original poster?

I'm speaking of Clinton supporters in general.

What I wrote still stands.

[Sulawesi]

49. This is such BS, you must know that.

[book_worm]

4. Not worried. Six weeks life time in politics. Obama will begin campaigning there this week

Now I'm not saying he will win it (tho, that isn't out of the question) but it will be close, I predict. HRC is starting to be caught up with some of the kitchen sink stuff she has been pulling and will have to begin answering her own questions about NAFTA.

[NYCGirl]

5. Only if she's running for President of Pennsylvania. NT

[rug]

11. Pennsylvania doesn't count.

[NYCGirl]

14. Of course it does. The only states that don't count are the ones Obama won.

Duh!

:rofl:

[Radical Activist]

6. Just like Texas and Ohio a few weeks before the vote.

I guess if she pulls off a slim victory it will still be considered a huge win just like Nevada and half the other states that she was supposed to win by a large margin.

[lapfog_1]

23. Psst.. Hillary did NOT win Texas. - n/t

[canuk1]

7. GET REAL

6 weeks until the actual voting. The Obama teams is just getting set-up there. I think you need to see the polls in the last week to 10 days before making any predictions.

In Canada, the entire campaign is only 6 weeks long. For the whole country.

[snappyturtle]

69. It seems to me Hillary has had big leads before and either loses

or wins by much smaller than anticipated numbers.

Six weeks wouldn't work here in America because we wouldn't have enough time to vet, chew up and destroy our candidates before they're on the block! No one will ever be able to say we're as reasoned as our northern neighbor!

Welcome to DU canuk1! :hi:

[cali]

8. It'd be great for her if the election was today; it's not.

And Obama has closed the gap in the vast majority of states. 6 weeks before TX and OH she was even further ahead in the polls. She may win but it won't be by 19.

[uponit7771]

9. Six weeks out and Obama has spent little to no time in Penn, people meet Obama they like him. People

...meet Hillary they find out she voted for cluster bombs and they don't like her.

[Zachstar]

10. Ok this is March the 11 the Primary is on April 22

And before Obama starts his ground work there.

So you are making a FOOL out of yourself saying she will have a STRONG case by the time they vote.

[Johnny__Motown]

12. So she will only be down by 140 pledged delegates? good luck with that she may be beat by 19 today

in Mississippi

[XemaSab]

13. The pounding will be on April 22

and not one day before.

[monmouth]

15. "Pounding?" A little exaggeration there I think, Obama has not even

begun to campaign in PA yet..

[jaysunb]

16. Groundhog Day ????

Gotta be, cause I saw this same picture before Ohio & Texas......:evilfrown:

[John Q. Citizen]

17. So are you saying if she wins by less than 19% she should drop out?

[pbca]

19. I'm saying she should have dropped out already n/t

[Coexist]

35. absolutely - 19% or say goodnight, Gracie.

[pbca]

18. Just wait

It's a long time before the PA primary: Between now and then Obama is doing a short global good will tour, then he'll start campaigning - with former Clinton Admin. military leaders. Once the Obama machine is up and running fully in PA her lead will erode by the day. She'll probably still win it, but I'd be suprised if it was better than 55-45%

[alcibiades_mystery]

20. Bookmarking

[meow mix]

43. me too, bookmarking for future comparisions

:bounce:

[Cant trust em]

21. She needs to win practically every other state by the same margin

to stay in the game. Then she needs for MI and FL to revote and to win those too.

[Bonobo]

24. Sexist.

If we said "Obama was 'pounding' Hillary" -oh the shit we'd hear!

[Leopolds Ghost]

61. Well the NY president of NOW did say Obama was "gang-raping" her...

:yoiks:

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

25. Playing right into Rethug hands. Nice goin' Hillary!

[ORDagnabbit]

28. I think she'll have a strong case because of she

supports and voted for using cluster bombs in civilian areas

and

supports and voted for use of landmines


or maybe not..

[sniffa]

30. That's been debunked

[AlinPA]

31. We don't have early voting in PA and absentees are not counted this early. How so?

[Avalux]

32. Pounding? 6 weeks out? I don't think so.

She had a 20 point lead in Texas 2 weeks before the primary and she lost the state.

[jackson_dem]

52. Obama was in a dead heat in PA before 3/4. He now trails by 19

The trajectory is going the wrong direction for Obama. I thought Obama inevitably gains ground?

[Avalux]

68. Show me the dead heat in a SUSA poll. n/t

[amborin]

33. She will Win Penn and Win the Nomination

[Hawkeye-X]

36. by aboiut 0.000000001% would be my guess

and she hits YET another brick wall.

She should have dropped out already. I'm hoping a SD bomb will happen this week to force Hillary out when Obama leads by 200+ SD's by tomorrow.

Yes, I know Mississippi has like 33 delegates, but I'm talking about superdelegates.

I've had enough of Hillary, and I wanna focus on tearing down that cancer-ridden flea-bitten old fart named McCain, which we seem to forget is the REAL enemy.

Hawkeye-X

[amborin]

71. don't you realize

the war chest of sleaze and slime the rethugs would launch against Obama?

they will shred him

[milkyway]

34. Umm...in November it won't be a closed primary. Indies and repugs all get to vote, and Hillary says

open primaries are unfair because indies and repugs don't like voting for her.

She's up 19 now, so if she ends up winning the state by a few points and a few delegates it will be a disastrous failure for her. But that won't stop her from taking another confetti shower.

[Vinca]

38. The primary isn't for a couple of years, is it? It seems like it.

Highly unlikely any poll taken today will have any relevance then. But if it keeps your hopes up . . .

[meow mix]

41. bookmarked. i better see her win PA by 19

we'll see then.

[GarbagemanLB]

42. The time SINCE Iowa is the time we have UNTIL PA. Yeah, I'd say there is plenty of time to narrow th

at gap.

[OzarkDem]

44. But Obama folks say we don't need PA

They think they can win with Mississippi, Iowa and Wyoming.

[Leopolds Ghost]

62. "they (Obama) think we can win in Iowa" -- Dems won Iowa in 2000 and expected in 2004

:shrug: so much for your DLC continually lowering expectations... you now want to paint Iowa and Pennsylvania red.

[HeraldSquare212]

45. We'll see, I guess. I doubt that's the final spread, whoever wins.

[shadowknows69]

46. Long time until PA

[stray cat]

48. wasn't that what it was last week as well ie no change

[goldcanyonaz]

50. It was a 15 point lead last week, and 4 points the week before.

It's going up.

[robertpaulsen]

51. Could someone put this "pounding" in perspective in terms of delegates?

How many more delegates does Clinton get if she beats Obama by 19% compared with, say, 9%?

[VolcanoJen]

53. And if polls taken six weeks before an election actually reflected the eventual result...

... wouldn't we be trying to beat Republican Nominee Rudy Giuliani right now? Right after Hillary's coronation nomination?

Bizarro World.

[AtomicKitten]

54. ARG has it at 11%, but who's counting?

;)

[mculator]

55. k

[SoCalDem]

56. When Obama was polling at 15%, she only got 36%.. I guess she's making up some ground

:rofl:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1117

November 8, 2007 -
Giuliani Close To Clinton In Pennsylvania Pres Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Despite Big Primary Lead, Clinton Has Big Negatives


Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani has narrowed the gap with New York Sen. Hillary Clinton among Pennsylvania voters, getting 43 percent to Sen. Clinton's 45 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 48 - 42 percent Clinton lead over Giuliani in an October 10 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University. If Clinton is the Democratic candidate for President, 36 percent of Pennsylvania voters say they would support her, with 21 percent who might support her and 41 percent who say they would not vote for her under any circumstances. If Giuliani gets the Republican nod, 27 percent say they would vote for him, with 36 percent who might vote for him and 33 percent who say they won't vote for him under any circumstances.

snip...

"Sen. Hillary Clinton has had a rough couple of weeks on the campaign trail and her numbers show it, dropping slightly in Pennsylvania. But she is still the strongest candidate in the field and holds the slimmest of edges among voters that both 9/11 hero Rudolph Giuliani and War hero Sen. John McCain will have a hard time overcoming," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"This poll shows that there is a hard core of just over 40 percent who are unlikely to vote for Sen. Clinton under any circumstances, but it takes just 50 percent plus one to win the election."

snip...

* Clinton gets 45 percent to 43 percent for Arizona Sen. John McCain.


snip...

Clinton is running away with the Democratic primary, leading Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 48 - 15 percent, up from 41 - 14 percent October 10.

snip...

Pennsylvania voters give Giuliani a 45 - 28 percent favorability rating. Clinton gets a 47 - 43 percent favorability rating.
Clinton has the Democratic nomination "locked up," 36 percent of Pennsylvania voters, including 34 percent of Democrats, say.

[grantcart]

57. woe all is lost all is lost

except he started 30 points down and the campaign there hasn't even started. if he gains 2 points a week he will win.

[jazzjunkysue]

58. Moving the goal posts. From "winning" to "making a strong case."

Keep trying. There are still 3 people on this board who are unwilling to see the obvious.

[rodeodance]

60. is that you got?

[rocktivity]

63. There is more than a month to go

and she'll have to get 62% of the vote in ALL the remaining contests in order to have a legitimate case to take before the superdelegates.

:headbang:
rocknation

[anonymous171]

65. LOL!

:rofl: After all, PA is the ONLY state that matters.

[TheZug]

66. WOW! There's NO WAY he'll make this close!

Just keep raising expectations, Clinton people.

[Medusa]

67. A month is an eternity in politics

but keep on dreaming

[Cha]

70. We'll remember this when the actual

election takes place..but thanks for your prediction. hilary being one of the biggest LOSERS in modern history and that's just her personality.

[Mooney]

72. And god knows it will stay that way for six weeks.

Yup, six weeks in politics goes by in the blink of an eye.