What if the superdelegates ended up split down the middle?

[dansolo]

A lot of the arguments seem to suggest that the superdelegates should swing decidedly for one candidate or the other. The reality is that they will very likely end up being split very closely right down the middle. The way things stand right now, that would mean that Obama, with the pledged delegate lead, would become the winner. If you support Senator Clinton, would you be bothered if this happens? And if so, could you politely explain why?

[frogcycle]

1. or the split could be such that

neither wins, and Edwards holds all the marbles with his pledged delegates!

[tekisui]

3. It would have to be very close for Edwards' 26 to effect it.

There are a few more Uncommitted's as well. But, still, it would have to be super tight. In that unlikely scenario, it goes brokered.

[dansolo]

6. That wasn't what I asked

I was only talking about superdelegates.

[frogcycle]

19. you made the flat statement that

Obama, with the pledged delegate lead, would become the winner.

That is not necessarily the case. He could be one short, with her 25 short.

When you write sentences you should pay attention to what words you use and what order you put them in. It helps make them accurate.

[thunder rising]

2. What if the moon where made of cheese?

[dansolo]

5. I asked a legitimate question.

Looking at the dynamics of the race, a split superdelegate tally is extremely likely. Why are you so afraid to answer the question?

[lapfog_1]

4. If they split down the middle, Obama wins.

he gets to 2025 much faster than Hillary does. For Hillary to win, they MUST break to her, something like 75-25 depending on the outcome of the rest of the primaries.

[Kahuna]

7. Obama wins. nt

[dansolo]

8. I realize that

I was just curious how Clinton supporters would respond if that happened.

[AlGore-08.com]

9. Obama wouldn't win just by getting the most delegates, he (or Clinton) has to get the magic number

If, after including the super delegate support, Obama and Clinton are both still short of the magic number, there's still no nominee. (Super delegates can stay "undeclared" if they want to.)

I believe pledged delegates are free to vote for anybody they want after the first ballot. Then they are free to vote for whoever they think would be the best nominee, and that may have nothing to do with who arrived at the convention with the most pledged delegates. There are already negotiations by both campaigns to get delegates - - super and vanilla - - to change sides. A deadlocked convention would kick this into overdrive. The convention would keep voting until there was a nominee.

There is a small chance that if the convention remains totally deadlocked - - if neither Obama nor Clinton can persuade enough delegates to back them, and neither will conceded - - that the convention will have to pick another person to be the nominee, whether that person ran in the primary or not.

[featherman]

10. Then Obama wins on the first ballot - simple math

[XemaSab]

11. Play with the numbers

http://www.forbes.com/2008/02/27/obama-clinton-election-oped-cx_jb_0227delegates.html

[OzarkDem]

12. Then they won't have done a very good job

and they will have to take another vote.

You do realize, don't you, that at Conventions they take many votes.

[Lucinda]

13. The Kennedy supporters for each candidate will have one of their famous family football games

with a "winner take all" outcome, of course.
:hi:

[CTyankee]

14. We can't surmise until we have more states voting and

we have resolved the Fl/MI issue. THEN we can talk about this. I think the superdelegates are feeling strongly that they should let the primary voting play out. To make dire predictions now is a natural thing to want to do, but we must restrain ourselves. It is unfortunate, I know, for us to be in this predicament and I wish we weren't. But we are and fate will play with us Dems the way it always does...sigh...I wish this were different, too!

[XemaSab]

16. There are only 9 states, Guam, and Puerto Rico left

She doesn't have a lot of room for play here....

[CTyankee]

18. I know, but what you hear the superdelegates saying is "Let the process play out."

The last thing we want to do is turn off our own voters anywhere who would feel their vote didn't count anyway because it has all been worked out...

[frogcycle]

21. damn, maybe Guam (my birthplace) can be kingmaker! n/t

[XemaSab]

15. If the delegates went right down the middle

She'd have to get 66% of the vote in EVERY remaining contest. Bear in mind that she's only broken 60% in Arkansas, and she's only broken 55% in Oklahoma, New York, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. I think she could realistically hit 55% in Kentucky, West Virginia, and even Pennsylvania, but she's not going to do that well in the western and southern states at all.

Obama, on the other hand, could lose all the remaining elections with 45% of the vote and still reach 2,025, if half of the superdelegates went his way.

[kentuck]

17. If the Superdelegates split down the middle?

That means Obama would have half of the 50 Superdelegate lead that Hillary has at present and would receive 300 of the remaining delegates. That means he would be much closer than Hillary to the nomination.

[annie1]

20. i would be ok with that. that's how it goes.