War Support Drops; Bush, Kerry in Dead Heat (Gallup Poll Shows Bush up 4)

[mobuto]

Gallup once again fails to mirror the results of any other polling organization. Hmmm...

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new Gallup survey finds a significant worsening of Americans' attitudes about the war in Iraq, with a large majority now saying that things are going badly in the war and nearly 3 in 10 willing to withdraw all troops from the country. The poll also shows that Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and President George W. Bush are essentially tied in the presidential contest, with Kerry enjoying a two-point lead among registered voters, and Bush a three-point lead among likely voters -- both leads within the poll's margin of error. Bush's approval rating of 52% is not much changed from the 53% he received two weeks ago.

The poll, conducted April 5-8, shows that 64% of Americans believe things in Iraq are going either "very badly" (33%) or "moderately badly" (31%) for the United States, up from 43% who felt that way a month ago. Just 35% believe things are going either "very well" or "moderately well," down from 55% in March.

--continued--

http://www.gallup.com/content/?ci=11260

[RoundRockD]

1. Did you notice that Bush is ahead in the "likely voter" category but

Kerry is ahead in the "registered voter" category, 48 to 46?

[mobuto]

2. No I hadn't

I should read polls before posting.


Among registered voters, Kerry holds a two-point lead, 48% to 46%. Bush had a three-point lead two weeks ago, 49% to 46%. These changes are not statistically significant.

The changes may not be statistically significant beyond the margin of error, but they still represent a five-point shift.

Note also that 64% of Americans say the war is going badly.

[59millionmorons]

4. weird

They polled 500 likely voters and 900 registered voters. Seems the more people they poll the more Kerry is up.

[atre]

3. Which begs the question: how do they define "likely voter?"

I always thought the trends tended to go the other way. More of them, but we're more likely to vote.