MS: Obama's lead Arg +22, IA +6

[adoraz]

http://www.pollster.com/08-MS-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

wow have the polls been all over the place. can anyone figure out what is the cause of the big difference? there must be something they do differently with polling.

[NMMatt]

1. They both suck. But ARG is closer to reality on this one. -nt

[adoraz]

2. yeah but can you figure out why?

is one over/under sampling blacks? I can't find the ARG crosstabs.

[gabeana]

4. IA underrepresents Obama's #'s by a avg of 13%

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/articles/insider-advantage-primary-grade-022808004.html

[NMMatt]

5. If you have 65% of blacks supporting Obama in MS and a 6 point lead

You have to figure that his actual lead is closer to 20 than 6. It's a simple demographics that shows 20% is closer to reality. Obama won neighboring Alabama by 14 and Mississipi has a higher African American percentage than any of the southern states.

[mohc]

3. The biggest difference I see is the non-Democratic numbers

Both ARG and IA are predicting the independents and Republicans to make up a little over 20% of the primary vote, but the margin of support for Clinton is different. ARG has Clinton ahead 13% among Republicans and Independents together (they do not break them down) while IA has Clinton ahead 34.5% among independents and Republicans. That is a pretty large swing.

[Herman Munster]

6. you think white indie/republicans in mississippi are going to vote for Obama?

Frankly, I'll be amazed if Obama breaks 20% in the white vote in Mississippi. They all probably think he's a muslim.

[NMMatt]

7. Thanks to Clinton's Rovian tactics. Congradulations if you are right - scum -nt

[MadBadger]

8. I'm ready to let ARG back in to the Not complete bullshit pollster Club

They've done decently well since Iowa and should be allowed back in.