Mississippi is a real test for Obama.

[cali]

It's the first primary following Mini Tuesday. And I don't care how much my fellow Obama supporters try and spin it, it wasn't a good day for him. No he didn't lose his lead, and yes she only picked up a handful more delegates than he, but it changed the narrative precipitously. And though he may have technically won TX the perception is that she won TX and OH and RI.

I'm not counting tomorrow's contest in Wyoming because it's a caucus and such a small state, though that may tell us something too. But Mississipi is a state that Obama should win and win big- by 20+ points. If he doesn't, you'll be sure to hear about it. The MSM will speculate ad nauseum about how he was just a fad candidate and how the bubble is bursting. I don't believe that, but many other people will.

Whether you think it's fair or not, Hillary has done some damage. How much? Well, that's what Mississipi will tell us. If Obama wins by 20 or more points, I think he'll recover just fine. If he doesn't, he's in real trouble, in my opinion.

I'm not fond of Hillary Clinton and I never have been a big Clinton admirer, but Obama has to be able to deal with attacks to be a viable candidate. If his campaign fails it won't be chiefly due to Hillary's tactics.

[Maddy McCall]

1. I'm pretty sure he'll win Mississippi.

[cali]

6. Yeah but that wasn't my point

If he doesn't win it big, he's hit a real rough patch. Mississipi should be a huge win for him. If he loses Mississipi, it's all over for him.

[Steeler1623]

9. He won't lose, but it's an open primary so Republicans can do damage to him

[Maddy McCall]

13. I think that he'll win big in Mississippi.

Demographically, it's his to lose.

The only thing that could impact a big win for him is that we have open primaries here, a highly contested Democratic nomination, and the Republican candidate has already been chosen...

So there'll be a lot of cross-over voting by Republicans.

[papau]

21. working class non AA voters plus aged will not be enough to keep Obama from 20+% win

[ingac70]

2. Mississippi is an open primary...

and since McCain has already been crowned nom, dittoheads will have nothing better to do than fuck with the Mississippi primary.

It will be close.

[Cant trust em]

37. "dittoheads". That's pretty clever. nt

[NightWatcher]

3. I think Obama is winning the 'perception game

Hillary is looking more and more shrill to the general public. She will lose any shot she had of a sympathy vote. I think that she will fall further behind in the polls and get hammered by the voters- even in her newest firewall of Pennsylvania.

[Captain Hilts]

7. I just love hearing men describe Clinton as "shrill." nt

[NightWatcher]

11. what the fuck else do you want me to call it? Ok, she's been acting like a jerk

how's that. Clinton is being a jerk.

[Phillycat]

12. Yes, it's my favorite thing too.

[NightWatcher]

22. the definition of shrill

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/shrill

shrill adjective, -er, -est, verb, noun, adverb
–adjective 1. high-pitched and piercing in sound quality: a shrill cry.
2. producing such a sound.
3. full of or characterized by such a sound: shrill music.
4. betraying some strong emotion or attitude in an exaggerated amount, as antagonism or defensiveness.
5. marked by great intensity; keen: the shrill, incandescent light of the exploding bomb.
–verb (used with object), verb (used without object) 6. to cry shrilly.
–noun 7. a shrill sound.
–adverb 8. in a shrill manner; shrilly.

In a page full of definitions, I have yet to find the sexist base for the word that the Hillary supporters seem to love to complain about.

[Cant trust em]

39. Definitions 4 & 5 seem to be about right.

The sexist base comes from it being a word used typically to describe women, not men. It's just a big semantics game to avoid the point that people don't like Hillary personally. Bitch, for all intents and purposes, means the same thing as asshole. But to the Clinton Sexist Defense League (CSDL) it makes a big difference. Calling someone sexist is another way to avoid the point. It's the ad hominem logical fallacy.

[Captain Hilts]

40. #6 NEVER used in reference to men. n

[KittyWampus]

46. that has been proven untrue so many times. Google man/shrill.

[BOSSHOG]

16. I've yet to find her shrill

Both candidates are doing fine, their supporters are raving shrill lunatics.

[Captain Hilts]

41. I wish both candidates would be given a week on a beach in the Caribbean.

They're both holding up astonishingly well. Much to their credit.

[TwilightGardener]

4. Don't blame Obama alone for not being able to "deal with attacks"--

the press has either been running Hillary's smears against him unchallenged, or shutting him out in terms of his appearances and speeches lately. There's little he can do if the media decides not to cover him fairly.

[Bake]

44. Good lord, Obama has gotten a complete pass from the media

Until only about a week ago! Now that he's actually getting critical attention, the O-bots just can't take it.

Bake

[Captain Hilts]

5. He will win Mississippi. Large % of Dems are black and he's gotten 9outof10 of their votes. nt

[BOSSHOG]

8. She had a good turnout yesterday

at a State Dem meeting and Bill is campaigning in the state tomorrow. There is some fondness for her in the state for her activities as Arkansas' First Lady Mississippi's neighboring state. She also hit all the Katrina buttons yesterday and one of Bill's stops tomorrow will be two towns on the gulf coast.

[thevoiceofreason]

And Barack had big turnouts in Ohio

Proves nothing. Let's see. I heard there is an IA poll showing her 6% down. Let's see how that plays out.

[BOSSHOG]

18. I'm attempting

to be the voice of reason here. I did not infer that it proved anything just passing on news from the state I live in.

[tekisui]

10. It is up to Obama and his campaign to get back the perception game.

If he has what it takes, he will. If not....you know the rest.

I think that he played this mess with Power well. Let's see how the storyline goes into the weekend, what the buzz is on the talking heads.

[cali]

15. Yep. That's it in a nutshell. He'll either do it or he won't be able

to. And if he can't, it's better to find that out now.

[rug]

These point spread expectations have been hype all along.

A win is a win no matter who gets it.

[Dawgs]

14. Uh, over 50% of the Dems in Mississippi are black.

If he gets 80%+ of the AA vote, and 30%+ of the white he wins big.

Don't worry.

[cali]

17. that's true, but as someone pointed out, it's an open primary

and he's only polling around 20% with white voters.

[Bullet1987]

47. Unless Rethugs come out en masse...it won't matter much if they vote for Hillary

Besides, if the voting demographics are really 50%+ Black...he'll win those handily and Mississippi will be called for Obama as soon as the polls close. It's common sense, if over half the people voting are Black and Obama is winning the Black vote 80-20 or 90-10 in one case...it's a gimme. I'd like to see that Insider Advantage poll, and how they have it broken down. I seriously don't see her sniffing 10% within Obama.

[Maddy McCall]

26. Open primary, though.

[scheming daemons]

19. He doesn't have to win by 20%.... just by a solid number.

[CoffeeCat]

20. Cali, I completely agree with you...

Obama needs to demonstrate that he can be strong and stand up to Hillary. He must answer her attacks and
he must deliver very rich and substantive retorts to Clinton's shenanigans.

If he doesn't, he will lose this.

He doesn't have to attack her. He just needs to hit her back--as hard as she hits him. Otherwise, he looks
like a wimp. Then, it's easier to argue that he's not tough and that he'll be soft on national security.

I remember reading an article about a reporter who was covering the debates. He was hanging around backstage during
a break and he saw Edwards say to Obama, "What are you doing? Get in there and fight! You've gotta get in this thing
and fight back!" That's probably the sole reason Edwards hasn't endorsed Obama. He first needs to see that Obama's
got the toughness to fight for Americans and fight off the special interests.

We know that Obama is honest and a man of integrity. We know he's not politics as usual. However, if he thinks
that polite responses to Hillary stealing this campaign away from him--is appropriate--then he's making the same
grave errors as John Kerry.

I'm really tired of seeing Obama constantly make these wishy-washy statements from his campaign bus (or is he on
a plane?). It takes him a minute to say 10 words and he's not speaking directly and concisely. She sounds weak!
Someone needs to step in and deal with this! Why is he constantly sequestered in his bus/plane? Get out and
be with the people! That's his strength. If he's avoiding rallies and speeches just because Hillary mocked them,
then that's a horrendous blunder on Obama's part.

He must fight and show us how he fights...damnit!!! He needs to come out swinging AND smiling!

[Skwmom]

28. It's called Republican Voters playing dirty tricks - just like they

did in OH and TX - so give me a break.

[Dogmudgeon]

23. Let me put on my Wonk hat for a moment ...

First, Mississippi should be a cakewalk for Obama. It's an open primary, and there are a large number of African-American voters (65%) who will be going to the polls. It should be something like a 70-30 win, given 90% of the A-A vote and even one-half of the non-A-A Democrats.

If he gets LESS than that, it will mean that Hillary has cut deeply into the African-American base.

Second, and I hope I can say this without initiating a fire fight: way too many of Obama's supporters are extremely thin-skinned and react to the least little thing. I think that's the REAL reason why Hillary is making so many little petty-inflammatory statements. Most people don't care about the stuff that gets the campaign and the press outraged, but they do see them losing their cool constantly. The majority of the Obama supporters here are in various stages of nervous breakdown, over some incredibly minor issues. It's a lot like the Republicans in the late 1990s, and people will remember it.

There are some pretty enraged Hillary supporters, but they are far fewer in number, a relative imbalance that exists simply because of the much larger Internet organizing effort of the Obama campaign.

Perhaps Team Obama will give this some thought, but I doubt it. They will claim conscience, that they must "speak truth to power" and oppose the Evil One, but message discipline will be completely lost.

But who am I kidding? This is DU GD-P!

--p!

[cali]

29. In your analysis you've forgotten something

that in all honesty I didn't think of either: Mississipi is an open primary. The repug primary is settled. The concensus among trouble making pukes is that the best way to fuck with dems is to keep this process going as long as possible. It's not at all unlikely that repubs will turn out to vote for Hillary in order to accomplish this.

Insisting that if he doesn't win by 30+_ is absurd.

Oh, and as far as I can see, there are actually MORE inflamed Hill supporters per capita here. There are far more Obama supporters, but the ones posting over the top threads are given a good run for their money by Clinton supporters.

[Dogmudgeon]

42. The 70/30 figure ...

65% of the Mississippi Democratic electorate is African American. They have tended to vote for Obama:Clinton in a 90:10 proportion. That's an absolute precentage of 58.5% for Obama. (90% x 65%)

I then assumed that the non-African American electorate was evenly split. 50% (the split) of 35% (non-AA Dem voters) is 17.5%

90% x 65% of African Americans = 58.5% of Mississippi Democrats.

50% x 35% of non-African Americans = 17.5% of Mississippi Democrats.

58.5% + 17.5% = 76%

If he gets one-quarter of the non-AA vote, instead, he will still be at 67%. (58.5% + 8.75% = 67.25%)

The interfering effect of Republicans coming out to vote for Hillary is not borne out by exit polling. Most of the "crossover" voters in every state have voted for Obama, whether they were trying to destroy Hillary's chances or were bona fide Republicans and Independents For Obama. Rush, who wants McCain to run against Hillary, had little or no influence in Texas according to pollsters who studied his effect.

I'm sure that if I made any incorrect assumptions or math mistakes, someone will point it out.

The real driver of the campaign is the press, which calibrates its coverage to keep the race as close as possible. It did that to a great degree in 2000 in the general election.

--p!

[semie_21]

48. Yes we have an open primary

but, the first and third congressional districts are holding primaries for open seats. The third congressional district is heavily Republican and is being heavily contested since Pickering is retiring. The Governor appointed the republican house member from the first district as senator for Lott's seat when he retired. So, that leaves two open seats both of which are in republican districts with multiple candidates on the primary ballot. Some Republicans may not cross over to vote in the primary as some people are speculating just because the presidential part of the primary is settled. Just another thought.

[shraby]

24. Cali, how can he be in trouble when he's ahead

in delegates and p.v.? Do I need to remind you that Hillary is trailing badly? If he gets the 50 super delegates that Brokaw and others spoke about, that puts her even farther behind. Any kind of win in both states can only be good for him. He can even lose one and still come up smelling like a rose.

[Skwmom]

25. Wasn't Hillary supposed to win by HUGE margins in OH and TX?

[Skwmom]

27. It's an OPEN Primary. So winning at all will be a BIG win.

[anigbrowl]

30. The OP is right - Obama should push for a big win

You that even if he does win big her campaign will spin it as 'what did you expect, there's so many black people down there' or something along the lines of what we've seen already. Too bad. But a strong victory there will reassert his front-runner status.

[grantcart]

31. I love your posts but disagree with your premise

Obama performed very well on Tuesday given how far he had to come back in the polls. What was lost was the perception game. By expecting him to win every single primary it made even a single loss look like a set back.

Last Tuesday was Hillary's last stand she had to make some kind of gain on his huge delegate lead and Obama worked to to slightly less than a tie.

We shouldn't let our expectations go so high that when he only performs very well that we think that it wasn't a good day.

[LeftCoast]

32. He does have to fight the expectation-game a little

I really wonder though, if Clinton hasn't lost any of that momentum she gained on mini-Tues with her McCain comments. A lot of Dems are telling me offline that they were very unhappy with this strategy.

[Steeler1623]

34. If the whites vote for Hillary and the blacks vote for him, people nationwide will think ..

"that's just business as usual in Mississippi." And they would be right. I really don't see this as being much of a bellweather race.

[Lucinda]

33. I agree. Its very quick, but if she makes up ground I think it's telling.

[David__77]

35. I don't agree.

Even if it's close, he can still easily become the nominee. Clinton cannot win.

[Zachstar]

36. He will be fine as long as he keeps up the efforts to expose her.

The tax returns ought to be big news to the voters there. Her decisions for the IWR vote and the rape trial she was involved in ought to be on the news for them to see.

Her statements about the state ought to be on the news her record ought to be on the news.

On and on and ON..

The Hope and Change message ought be work well when people see Clinton politically exposed.

Also keep in mind that unless she wins these next 2 states BIG time the percentage she has to win in ALL the remaining states will grow even higher. These last few days giving Obama a net gain of one delegate was an absolute disaster for her campaign and GREATLY set the bar higher.

[thevoiceofreason]

38. He needs to win by 6% to beat the most recent poll

Above that, and it's an unbelievable landslide.

[aquarius dawning]

43. Right. Finally we'll find out if he can win 90% of the black vote in a state

I think he can do it.

[Bullet1987]

45. She damaged him...but more and more people are looking critically at her now

especially after the quasi-endorsement of John McCain. Does anyone know the voting demographics of Mississippi? If it mimicks SC...this isn't even a debate.

[VolcanoJen]

49. Being in Ohio, my biggest concern is the Dittohead Vote.

It's a reality. I've seen it with my own eyes. My workplace is full of gloating wingnut asshats who can't stop crowing about their clever crossover vote for Hillary.

It should concern us all. It's amazing how many sycophants are willing to follow Rush Limbaugh and Bill Cunningham off Lemming Heights.