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Has any Democratic President ever been elected without huge support from black voters?

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Skwmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 03:04 PM
Original message
Has any Democratic President ever been elected without huge support from black voters?

Haven't blacks always played a MAJOR role in electing a Democratic President? If that support isn't there in November can the Democrats win? And if they stayed home in LARGE numbers how would that impact down ticket races? Has anyone analyzed this?
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ayeshahaqqiqa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 03:06 PM
Response to Original message
1. They didn't contribute to the election victories of
Jefferson, Madison, Monroe, Jackson, Van Buren, Polk, Pierce, and Buchanan. :) (Sorry, I couldn't resist)
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MADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 03:11 PM
Response to Reply #1
5. Democrats USED to be the party of segregation. We weren't always the Big Tent crowd.
Hell, back in the day, most of us probably would have been ... REPUBLICANS!
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Skwmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 03:14 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. Well you know how "history has a way of repeating" itself.

The Clintons are the Democratic Party's nightmare.
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MADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 03:43 PM
Response to Reply #6
11. What an ignorant and offensive remark. You're suggesting "the Clintons" are segregationists?
I always thought Democrats, as a rule, were more intelligent than those of other persuasions. I see you're one of those famous exceptions.
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librechik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 03:08 PM
Response to Original message
2. I don't really think the black vote has ever been a decisive factor, AFAIK.
Edited on Fri Mar-07-08 03:09 PM by librechik
Nowadays, tho, Latino votes might be.
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Skwmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 03:17 PM
Response to Reply #2
7. Oh, so Latino votes can win OH and PA for the Democrats?

Furthermore, maybe some of those Latino voters will wonder if the Clintons would treat their most loyal voters like that...hmmm... I wonder how they would treat me? Oh wait, I'm sure the Republicans will be more than happy to point this out in November....
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MADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 03:49 PM
Response to Reply #2
12. It's definitely a factor in primary contests. It is a factor, though less decisively, in general
contests as well. Take away the black vote (assume, for sake of argument, they all decided to boycott the election), and we surely would have had Term Two of George H. W. Bush in the 92 contest.



You can take any grouping--ethnic, racial, gender--and find them to be decisive. It all depends on the margins when you're counting the votes.
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democrattotheend Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 04:16 PM
Response to Reply #2
21. Without African Americans, Kerry would have lost the popular vote by 14 points
Edited on Fri Mar-07-08 04:16 PM by democrattotheend
Just did a crosstab. Kerry would have lost 56-42 if African Americans were omitted.
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MADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 03:08 PM
Response to Original message
3. Yes.
Once upon a time, most blacks were....REPUBLICANS.

Abe Lincoln, and all that?

Get thee to a history book....
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Skwmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 03:22 PM
Response to Reply #3
9. My favorite subject was history.
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ayeshahaqqiqa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 03:22 PM
Response to Reply #3
10. Didn't change until FDR, if memory serves
and his social programs put more and more of them into the Democratic camp.
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MADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 04:03 PM
Response to Reply #10
17. Precisely. FDR turned that tide, or at least started it. There were still, especially in the south
an awful lot of black Republicans up to the JFK era (who didn't have any trouble crossing party lines when the candidate suited them--all politics is local, as Tip used to say). Completely understandable, too.

FDR lit it off, and LBJ signing key civil rights legislation sealed the deal, I'd say.
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ayeshahaqqiqa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 04:05 PM
Response to Reply #17
19. You are correct
LBJ's Civil Rights Act sealed the deal with blacks, I think. It also caused the racists in the party to leave--good riddance. I find it ironic that the Party of Lincoln welcomed them with open arms. My abolitionist ancestors must be spinning in their graves.
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movonne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 03:50 PM
Response to Reply #3
13. When did they get to vote....
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MADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 03:59 PM
Response to Reply #13
16. Well, which "they" do you mean? Are you talking about MALE or FEMALE voters, here?
Those men got to vote when Lincoln freed the slaves, practically speaking. The women didn't get their rights until the suffragettes got it for them in the earlier part of the 20th century.

Of course, as we well know, in the southern states, there were vicious and unconstitutional barriers erected to prevent blacks from excercising their right of franchise that weren't mitigated until voting/civil rights legislation passed.
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smiley_glad_hands Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 03:10 PM
Response to Original message
4. In the past 40 years? No. eom
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BrklynLiberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 03:18 PM
Response to Original message
8. oops..nevermind.
Edited on Fri Mar-07-08 03:19 PM by BrklynLiberal
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anonymous171 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 03:51 PM
Response to Original message
14. Apparently black voters aren't "true" democrats.
According to some Hill supporters who say only true democrats support Hill.
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MADem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 04:04 PM
Response to Reply #14
18. That's a pretty dispicable comment, "apparent" only to you. NT
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deaniac21 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 03:55 PM
Response to Original message
15. Andrew Jackson, Martin Van Buren, James Polk,
Franklin Pierce, James Buchanan and Andrew Johnson.
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Nine Donating Member (472 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 04:13 PM
Response to Original message
20. Why do you assume blacks won't vote for Clinton?
(not in OP but downthread)

You must be very young or new to politics if you aren't aware of the strong support the Clintons have always had from black voters. Remember how Bill was called "the first black president"? That support may have been damaged somewhat by Obama's race-baiting, but I'm thinking (hoping) his negative tactics won't have a lasting effect. (And people here complain about the relatively innocuous "experience" comment!)

http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=aa0cd21b-0ff2-4329-88a1-69c6c268b304

Misleading propaganda is hardly new in American politics --although the adoption of techniques reminiscent of past Republican and special-interest hit jobs, right down to a retread of the fictional couple, seems strangely at odds with a campaign that proclaims it will redeem the country from precisely these sorts of divisive and manipulative tactics. As insidious as these tactics are, though, the Obama campaign's most effective gambits have been far more egregious and dangerous than the hypocritical deployment of deceptive and disingenuous attack ads. To a large degree, the campaign's strategists turned the primary and caucus race to their advantage when they deliberately, falsely, and successfully portrayed Clinton and her campaign as unscrupulous race-baiters--a campaign-within-the-campaign in which the worked-up flap over the Somali costume photograph is but the latest episode. While promoting Obama as a "post-racial" figure, his campaign has purposefully polluted the contest with a new strain of what historically has been the most toxic poison in American politics.

More than any other maneuver, this one has brought Clinton into disrepute with important portions of the Democratic Party. A review of what actually happened shows that the charges that the Clintons played the "race card" were not simply false; they were deliberately manufactured by the Obama camp and trumpeted by a credulous and/or compliant press corps in order to strip away her once formidable majority among black voters and to outrage affluent, college-educated white liberals as well as college students. The Clinton campaign, in fact, has not racialized the campaign, and never had any reason to do so. Rather the Obama campaign and its supporters, well-prepared to play the "race-baiter card" before the primaries began, launched it with a vengeance when Obama ran into dire straits after his losses in New Hampshire and Nevada--and thereby created a campaign myth that has turned into an incontrovertible truth among political pundits, reporters, and various Obama supporters. This development is the latest sad commentary on the malign power of the press, hyping its own favorites and tearing down those it dislikes, to create pseudo-scandals of the sort that hounded Al Gore during the 2000 campaign. It is also a commentary on how race can make American politics go haywire. Above all, it is a commentary on the cutthroat, fraudulent politics that lie at the foundation of Obama's supposedly uplifting campaign.

(snip)

It has never been satisfactorily explained why the pro-Clinton camp would want to racialize the primary and caucus campaign. The argument has been made that Hillary Clinton wanted to attract whites and Hispanics in the primaries and make the case that a black candidate would be unelectable in the general election. But given the actual history of the campaign, that argument makes no sense. Until late in 2007, Hillary Clinton enjoyed the backing of a substantial majority of black voters--as much as 24 percentage points over Obama according to one poll* in October--as well as strong support from Hispanics and traditional working-class white Democrats. It appeared, for a time, as if she might well be able to recreate, both in the primaries and the general election, the cross-class and cross-racial alliances that had eluded Democrats for much of the previous forty years. Playing the race card against Obama could only cost her black votes, as well as offend liberal whites who normally turn out in disproportionally large numbers for Democratic caucuses and primaries. Indeed, indulging in racial politics would be a sure-fire way for the Clinton campaign to shatter its own coalition. On the other hand, especially in South Carolina where black voters made up nearly half of the Democratic turnout, and especially following the shocking disappointment in New Hampshire, playing the race card--or, more precisely, the race-baiting card--made eminent sense for the Obama campaign. Doing so would help Obama secure huge black majorities (in states such as Missouri and Virginia as well as in South Carolina and the deep South) and enlarge his activist white base in the university communities and among affluent liberals. And that is precisely what happened.


* http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/10/17/poll.blacks.democrats/index.html

Poll: Black support helps Clinton extend lead

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Sen. Hillary Clinton's lead over Sen. Barack Obama, her chief rival for the Democratic presidential nomination, is growing among African-American voters who are registered Democrats, and particularly among black women, a poll said Wednesday.

Among black registered Democrats overall, Clinton had a 57 percent to 33 percent lead over Obama.

(snip)

Clinton maintained an overwhelming lead among black registered voters when pitted against former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, besting the leading GOP presidential candidate 86 percent to 13 percent.

But when the same question was asked of white registered voters, the senator from New York's lead vanished, with Giuliani outpolling her 57 percent to 40 percent.
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mrreowwr_kittty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 04:20 PM
Response to Reply #20
22. Um, stuff has happened in that last few months.
That has tarnished the Clintons in the A/A community.

It's not that Black people will vote for McCain, but they are less likely to turn out in droves for Clinton as they are for Obama.
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galaxy21 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 04:23 PM
Response to Reply #22
23. 'hey, barack. We know you technically won the nomination and ...
are the first black person to ever do so, but we've decided to give the nomination to this white lady even though she's got less delegates and less of the popular vote.'


Yeah, African Americans are going to love that. Most will leave the democrats for ever. And they're certainly not going to vote for Hillary.
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Nine Donating Member (472 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 04:25 PM
Response to Reply #23
25. He won? I must have missed that headline. (nt)
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galaxy21 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 04:28 PM
Response to Reply #25
27. The Clinton campaign has even said they can't overtake his delegate count, so he has won, techincall
Hillary's just sticking around so she can cheat somehow.

So, yes, if the rules about florida and Michigan stick, he's won.
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ncrainbowgrrl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 08:29 PM
Response to Reply #27
28. Welcome to DU, galaxy21
:hi:
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Nine Donating Member (472 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 08:42 AM
Response to Reply #27
29. That's a lie.
Do you even understand how a nominee wins?
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Ravy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 08:59 AM
Response to Reply #27
31. You can't win without getting to 2025 delegates.
Superdelegate votes count as much for that total as pledged delegates do.
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Nine Donating Member (472 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 04:24 PM
Response to Reply #22
24. Yeah, trumped-up stuff from Obama
Did you read the link?

The Clintons built their support among black voters over decades. You think they got it from being racists?
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mrreowwr_kittty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-07-08 04:28 PM
Response to Reply #24
26. Can't even disguise it, can you?
So the African American community went from supporting Clinton 60-30 to an almost overnight reversal where they were supporting Obama 85-15. And you expect us to believe it was because they were duped by Obama.

Way to diss an entire community, ace. :thumbsup:

Tell you what, I'm going to defer to their judgment, not yours.
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Nine Donating Member (472 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-08-08 08:47 AM
Response to Reply #26
30. Oh please...
How many times have I heard from Obama supporters that voters were "duped" by the 3am phone ads or the NAFTA thing or whatever their excuse du jour is. Yes, I believe Obama's race-baiting strategy worked temporarily - not just on black voters but white voters as well. And if you really want to defer to the judgement of the African American community, how do you explain both Clintons' historically high approval numbers over decades. Were they "duped" then?
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