Latest poll shows Obama would be our strongest candidate against McCain

[mckeown1128]

I have seen a lot of people here on DU saying that only Hillary can win in November and so if Obama were to be the nominee, we would be "SCREWN" (i.e. John McCain would cruise to an easy victory).

I have been looking in various places for recent polls that compare how Obama and Hillary would perform in the general election against John McCain. The only updated polls I could find are the polls from Washington Post-ABC News. The pattern since Feb 5th is very interesting.

Around 4 weeks ago (Late-January), Obama was beating McCain by up to 3 points. Hillary was losing to McCain by up to 3 points. So it was looking like only Obama could beat McCain!

But now, Obama beats McCain by 11 points, and Hillary is statistically tied with McCain at +3. So maybe Obama is the strongest candidate to go up against John McCain?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_030308.html

This information has been posted here already during the past few minutes but still a lot of folks seem to believe that Obama cannot beat McCain. So the point of this thread is to let folks know that Obama's numbers have been improving over recent days, leading up to March 4th.

I know Obama has more pledged delegates and it's very hard to see how Hillary could catch him. But the fact is that neither can become the nominee without the support of superdelegates. I expect that the SDs will take a number of factors into consideration, including the results of national opinion polls.

It will be interesting to see the results of polls done after March 5th. If Obama's numbers continue to improve, it will undermine Hillary's claim that she is the most electable candidate.

[leftofcool]

1. Check date on Poll

February 28-March 2

[democrattotheend]

2. That's 4 days ago

Your point?

[redqueen]

3. Are the dates sexist, too?

SORRY! Kidding! :)

I know what you mean... it's before Hillary's wins, so... yeah.

[Altair]

4. What's the point of registering a momentary uptick in Hillary's momentum?

It's long term trends that matter in deciding who is more electable in November- not some temporary momentum Hillary got from Ohio and Texas.

[mckeown1128]

5. I agree.... n/t

[Apollo11]

7. Hillary's numbers were improving in the lead-up to March 4th

As you can see if you look at the Rasmussen numbers which are updated every day.

So it's not just a reaction to folks hearing about the results from Ohio and Texas.

In fact, we don't yet know where the candidates stand following the March 4th results.

If you are right, then Hillary can expect to benefit from an extra bounce! :bounce:

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history

[Apollo11]

6. Thanks for the tribute, but that's NOT the latest poll.

The Washington Post poll is based on data collected up until last weekend.

Rasmussen Reports has a rolling poll, with new numbers published every day.

They have Obama losing to McCain by 5 points, but Hillary is almost tied with McCain.

Back in mid-February, Obama was beating McCain, but Hillary was losing to McCain.

So even if you don't want to believe the numbers, you cannot ignore the trend.

Here's the link to the poll numbers:
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history

Here's the link to my original thread:
www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4923299

Once again, thanks for the tribute! B-)

[mckeown1128]

8. Your welcome....

I just thought people would like to know what poll results looked like with a decent polling sample... as opposed to the low polling sample don on rolling polls.