HRC the choice of the mathematically challenged

[Hawkowl]

I think that by now it is obvious to anyone who has even casually looked at the remaining delegates to be won and how they are proportionately awarded, that neither candidate can win the nomination out right on delegates won thru primaries and caucuses alone. However, it is obvious that Obama will, at the end of the primary season, have accumulated a plurality of delegates thru the primary/caucus system.

So in order to win, HRC will have to win the biggest caucus of them all--the super delegate caucus at the convention. And she will have to do it by about a 3-5 margin (since Obama will have significantly more delegates from the primary/caucus process). She has yet to win a single caucus in any state at all. Yet her supporters think that she will be able to win the convention caucus of super delegates? At this point HRC's campaign most resembles Huckabee's flat earth, anti-evolution, anti-book learnin', ignorant and proud to stay that way campaign.

Blather, rant, throw tamper tantrums, do whatever makes you feel better--but it won't change the arithmetic. She. Can't. Win.

[grantcart]

1. lol great

reminds me of the senator who was advocating for some nimrod to be on the supreme court and said something like "well sure he is mediocre but even the mediocre deserve representation on the Court". lol

[grantcart]

4. by the way over the last month Obama has won the SD battle 80% 67-16

[WheresMyVoice]

2. YOU ARE ENTITLED TO YOUR MATH

BUT YOU DO NOT POSESS THE MATH!

[HCE SuiGeneris]

10. I know a tech that can fix that CapsLock problem.

[FlyingSquirrel]

23. I possess the math.

Pledged: Obama 1360, Clinton 1220

Best case scenarios for HRC:

WY: Obama 8, Clinton 4
MS: Obama 16, Clinton 17
PA: Obama 62, Clinton 89
Guam: Obama 2, Clinton 1
IN: Obama 34, Clinton 32
NC: Obama 44, Clinton 47
WV: Obama 10, Clinton 16
KY: Obama 22, Clinton 25
OR: Obama 20, Clinton 28
MT: Obama 7, Clinton 8
SD: Obama 7, Clinton 7
PR: Obama 21, Clinton 30

Subtotals: Obama 253, Clinton 304

Totals: Obama 1613, Clinton 1524

A few extra tossed in there that haven't been awarded yet, give each another 50.

Totals: Obama 1663, Clinton 1574

By this time the superdelegate lead will be gone, possibly in favor of Obama.



Give Obama just 50% of the superdelegates (398) and he has 2,061 (36 more than needed)

This is all best case scenario for Clinton without MI and FL.

Add in MI and FL, totals would be:

Obama 1785, Clinton 1752

She still loses Pledged delegates by 33. BEST CASE SCENARIO for her.

Obama wins a plurality of states and delegates; superdelegates would have to split 55%-45% or so in favor of Clinton to overturn this result.

Not. Gonna. Happen.

[msallied]

3. I see Prozac sales skyrocketing in coming weeks.

[tritsofme]

5. Barack will have no mandate walking into the convention.

Especially if Clinton leads the popular vote.

This race is at a statistical tie right now.

[grantcart]

6. yeah its a tie

except for

Obama has a million more votes
150 more elected delegates
100 more net delegates
more money
more donors
more primaries
more caucuses
more dem senator endorsements
more dem govenor endorsements


other than that its just about even lol

if you guys can't count can you even read?

Obama's magic number is 465 and only needs 45% of the remaining 1030 delegates to win.

[WheresMyVoice]

7. LOL Statistical tie

More Rovian math.

[grantcart]

11. sorry now I got it - a 'statistical tie'

[Hawkowl]

8. Al Gore won more votes than anyone. EVER.

Yet he is not the president. One doesn't become president by popular vote. Not at the general election and not at the primary level. It may not be fair--but this is the USA.

[Gore1FL]

9. Ok.. But how cxan she do that?

He leads the pop vote, and the delegates. Most of the upcoming contests lean his way.

She is going to have a hard time caliing 60%+ of the super delegates by saying, "but it will be the best pyrrhic win ever!"

[grantcart]

14. He doesn't need a mandate he just needs the nomination

and here is the only statistical tie in this race

[Rageneau]

12. You mean: She. Can't. Lose.

Doesn't matter whether Obama is ahead in delegates -- or by how much. So long as he falls short of the total needed, he is no closer to being the nominee than Hillary is.

We will go into the convention effectively tied. But by that time, the brevity of Obama's resume, the realization that he is more GQ model than statesman, and the broadening Rezko scandal will cause people holding Obama stock to sell short.

[Gore1FL]

15. Effectively tied?

that isn't how it works. Super delegates will decide the outcome, but Hillary needs a vast majority to claim a pyrrhic victory.

[WheresMyVoice]

16. Define "effective"

A 100 PD difference?

She's toast. Hill yes!

[Hawkowl]

17. Ahhhh you prove my point

See by your logic 1500 = 1000 and therefore if you add 510 delegates to both 1500 and 1000, both candidates win! Awesome! (To those with rudimentary math skills I'm being general and facetious, or ironic and satirical to those english majors out there.)

Stay in school! Do math not drugs!

[emilyg]

20. That's exactly what news outlets saying tonight.

[Gore1FL]

13. Hey now!

Give Huckalree RondPaulm Clinton a break!

[AJH032]

18. Do not think

that the superdelegates will automatically vote Obama just because he has a slim (yes, that's right, slim. Look at his percentage lead in pledged delegates and it's very small--insurmountable, yes, but still quite small) lead. It could easily go either way. To think she cannot win and that Obama has this wrapped up is to live in denial.

Oh, and I'm a math major. Another lecture on mathematics will not be necessary.

[Hawkowl]

22. Well then...

Did you take any courses on probability? Or are you stuck on the limit theorem? I would you suggest you review your game theory and then re-evaluate your estimations of the probability of the moon being made of green cheese in square against the probability of HRC winning the nomination.

[AJH032]

24. There is absolutely no need to be nasty

and I find your post extremely distasteful. Have you run simulations of each coming primary/caucus and subsequent convention possibilities enough times to come up with a hypothesis (ie, Obama winning) that cannot be rejected at any reasonable significance level? I doubt it. If you could drop out with a "payoff" of 0 or stay in with an expected payoff greater than that, which strategy do you choose, game theory specialist?

goodnight.

[ExFreeper4Obama]

19. Clinton supporters majored in miracles, not math

:rofl:

[emilyg]

21. You mean like Hope and Change. Eh?

[ClayZ]

25. K and R

[Scurrilous]

26. Great post!

K & R :thumbsup: