Pennsylvania is a closed democratic primary filled with downscale older white democrats

[Herman Munster]

If Clinton Country would be a state, it would be Pennsylvania.

Not only does Hillary have the demographics, she has Ed Rendell's statewide machine behind him and Philly mayor Michael Nutter's machine.

She's probably going to win going away by 20 points or more.

Then she'll ride that momentum wave to win North Carolina and Indiana a couple weeks later.

The math won't matter at that point. Hillary will look like the winner and the superdelegates will flock to her. If she can pull out a nationwide popular vote victory, that will give the superdelegates any cover they need. They'll say they are putting forth the one man, one vote principle. Something that doesn't happen in caucuses which are biased against working people, families with children, older people that can't get around to caucus.

[ingac70]

1. Her momentum wave...

is going to get cut off in Wyoming and Mississippi.

Oh, that's right, they don't count.

[Omega3]

3. 2 more RED states for O? real impressive :)

[ingac70]

9. As opposed to states that will vote Dem anyhow...

yeah, it's impressive. To win we need a couple of red states to flip. Hillary isn't going to get them to.

[Tellurian]

101. Isn't Pennsylvania, a second home state for Hillary?

Her Mom and Dad were born there and she spent her childhood vacations at their summer residence.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

10. Red states like Texas and Ohio?

[Omega3]

31. red states like KS, NE, ND, ID, AK, LA, AL, GA, SC,

[ingac70]

13. Loved those numbers for Obama in Wisconsin, BTW. n/t

[Omega3]

44. it was you "Dane county Latte drinking snobs" that were behind it :) LOL

seriously, if the MSM would have stopped treating him with kid gloves before the Wis. primary it would've been different.

[anonymous171]

22. lol I guess Texas is a blue state now.

[Omega3]

37. well it's certainly becoming more liberal with Californians moving to Austin, however that's not the

point, look at the dem states he's won and they will all go dem with Clinton as the nom.

He's won alot of red states with open primaries and a repuke contest already finished. He, nor Hillary, won't win them no mater what.

[girl gone mad]

62. Huh?

Austin was liberal long before the californiacators invaded.

[Obamaniac]

33. Hey Omega...

Red states count and give up delegates.

Maybe your idiot candidate might be winning if she weren't so dismissive of the red states.

[Omega3]

42. sure they count but see #31, they won't go for him in the GE, he's a paper tiger being propped up by

indies and repukes that largely will vote for McLame in the GE. When it comes to Democratic voters HC is in the lead, I'm not convinced he's the Dems true choice. Sorry

[Maddy McCall]

14. I live in Mississippi...I won't say that it doesn't count...Hillary's here tomorrow night.

But in the grand scale of things, as far as delegates, it's not as significant as PA.

[ingac70]

21. It's significant enough..

to help make a victory for Hillary in PA moot in terms of getting any where with delegates. All Obama has to do now is keep the race close.

[UALRBSofL]

58. Maddy, you live in Mississippi?

I was trying to find someone that could inform me what was going on. I couldn't find an office there. I was trying to find out about the caucusing and didn't hear back. Do you know anything?

[MadBadger]

2. Wanna bet?

20+ points my ass

[WinkyDink]

35. Yes, I will bet.

[greyghost]

55. You'll lose.

[usregimechange]

4. And then there is philly

[WinkyDink]

38. Do you not know Big Ed was MAYOR of Philly?! It's hers.

Ed Rendell is BELOVED in PA!!

[PM7nj]

50. Highly doubt that.

Philly is also almost 50% black and has a many active young people (included huge amounts of students). I'm sure she'll do well in the working class white neighborhoods and some immigrant neighborhoods, but I doubt she'll win this city. The Obama team is already on the ground here.

[Snarkturian Clone]

64. Rendell is HATED in philly right now...

between forcing casinos on us and destroying historical buildings for the state convention center expansion, that corrupt pile of shit Rendell has no friends here... being a former philly mayor makes him even less trusted... our last non-corrupt mayor was Richardson Dilworth.

[PCIntern]

76. Well.....

maybe...sort of.

the only people who REALLY care about the casino issue - a legitimate one, I might add - are the folks in the neighborhoods where they're being/stopped being built. After 8 years of Street, who remembers Rendell enough to hate him? No one's too interested in the historic buildings torn down on the E side of Broad...not enough to swing elections, at least.

It's a new day with Nutter, and as McCain would say, the past is the past...

:sarcasm: for the last sentence at least... :hi:

[Snarkturian Clone]

78. I probably have more of a problem with the convention center

expanding at all than the historical bldgs being destroyed (except for that firehouse.. that place is beautiful). We've had enough trouble filling up the place as it is because of all the extra costs involved in having a big convention in the city... most groups rather go to Cherry Hill or Fort Washington to save a ton of cost. Shit, the company that does Star Trek conventions won't use the PA Convention Center and always ends up in Cherry Hill. That grinds my gears 'cause I'd be able to walk 4 blocks to it instead of driving all the way out to that wasteland. I also have a problem with expanding BEFORE the casinos are in (if they will come at all) and BEFORE Market st. east is revitalized... the tourists are scared of market st. between 11th and 6th... this causes the ones from the conv. center to not go to Old City and vice versa.

As far as philadelphians having a short memory, you're absolutely right. I've had high hopes for Nutter but he's already managed to piss me off slightly (holding a private screening of the Wire at City Hall??? ugh!).

[goclark]

89. My cousin lives in Philly and he said

they can't wait to vote.

They are Fired Up and ready to go AND they hate Rendell with a passion.

[WinkyDink]

99. Well, if your COUSIN said it...........

[WinkyDink]

98. Please. Yeah, that's why he's now GOVERNOR.

[PaDem]

90. ah, Rendell is not "beloved" in PA

and to suggest that Hillary will carry Philly is ludicrous.

[WinkyDink]

100. Time will tell.

[eggman67]

80. And in Philly there is very popular Clinton supporter

Mayor Michael Nutter. Rendell mey helpe her elsewhere, but Mayor Nutter's support will be big in Philly. Mayor Nutter, being the honorable man he is, is not jumping ship, but campaigning aggressively for the candidate he supports. She probably won't win Philly, but Mayor Nutter can help her keep it close enough.

http://www.philly.com/philly/home/20080306_Mayor_Nutter_says_hell_campaign_hard_for_Clinton.html

[BumRushDaShow]

85. Mixmaster Mike

was elected mayor by one of the lowest turnouts for mayor in the city's history - only 27% of the eligible voters. He has no say for anything here and he is by no means "popular". His primary run against a large slate of candidates who half-heartedly threw their hats in the ring was a joke and his eventual repuke opponent was an unknown put up there just to have someone on the ticket. The D.J. is nothing but a wooden puppet with Fast Eddie's hand up his ass moving his mouth.

The 2 candidates' representatives (Bill Clinton for his wife and Rep. Patrick Murphy for Obama) were here in the city today to make their cases before the city's Ward leaders. The Ward leaders have agreed to NOT make any endorsements for the top of the ticket - specifically because of the nasty split in support at that level.

So there is no "Ed Rendell Machine" nor is there any "Michael Nutter Machine" - at least here in SE PA. Even the head of the Democratic Party here in the city - Rep. Bob Brady (who is a Super Delegate and congressman for PA-1) has yet to endorse a candidate apparently acknowledging the split.

[eggman67]

91. You keep telling yourself that

there is no "Ed Rendell Machine" nor is there any "Michael Nutter Machine", though Nutter is more of an influence than a machine per se.

As far as turnout it was 33% in the primary, which the city's election watchdog "Committee of Seventy" described as heavily contested. You couldn't swing a cat around here without hitting a Tom Knox ad, so half-hearted my ass. Knox spent a ridiculous 12 million trying to buy that office and Nutter won spending less than half that. Evans, Brady and Fattah also ran serious campaigns and the debates were good. Low GE turnout is what happens when you run unopposed, unless you're going to try to make the argument that Taubenberger actually presented serious opposition when he lost 83%-17%

Also, again according to the Philadephia Inquirer (2/10/08): "The new mayor has high approval ratings and polls especially well with the younger, better-educated professionals to whom Obama appeals."

And from the Feb 2008 Keystone Poll:
"Hillary Clinton continues to be very popular among the state’s Democrats,
with more than six in ten (62%) having a favorable opinion of the candidate.
Clinton’s favorability ratings among Democrats have barely changed since last
summer."

Spin it any way you like but PA is Clinton country and you'll find that out in seven weeks.

[BumRushDaShow]

92. Do you

live here? Apparently not! :rofl: Keep believing the M$M crap and smoking that funny stuff. I happen to have knowm Michael Nutter for over 25 years so time for you to move along Shillerat. He was stuck in office here as a filler for his predecessor John Street.

This city is not Shillery territory and never will be. Neither Fast Eddie or Mixmaster Mike have a say here when it comes to that and they know it. Don't forget too that all of these pundit-spun polls aren't including the college and university students, of which there are many many here and across the state and these folks are energized just as they were when Bill ran in 1992. In fact, during that 1992 election, the city posted its highest turnout (72%) on record to help the state go dem. Imagine the same demographic of the young going for Obama.

[WinkyDink]

102. I live 50 miles to your north, and let me say that college kids' voting is VASTLY over-rated.

It's the UNIONS that will carry this state, as they did for Gore and Kerry, and the UNIONS are Old School Democrats.

[eggman67]

107. Yep.

They'll learn in 7 weeks.

[eggman67]

106. As a matter of fact I do

30 years in South Philly 10 just outside, and I still work in center city. So you just go ahead and keep on dreaming.

[NJSecularist]

5. Pennsylvania is much more favorable to Obama than Ohio

Hillary isn't going to win the state running away.

[polichick]

20. If she wins at all, it'll be by less that 5 points. nt

[surfermaw]

49. Don't think so!

[BringBigDogBack]

6. won't be enough.

thanks for playing.

k. bai.

[leftofcool]

7. 60 % lead is the prediction

[SoCalDem]

93. the same people who predicted "it would all be over on Feb 5"

Those people?

[usregimechange]

8. PA polls, how many delegates will Hilary get?

[grantcart]

87. hundreds and hundreds and Brazillians

[BeyondGeography]

11. Clinton Country = Depressing White People

Run with it, Herman.

[bigtree]

16. nice. Obama supporters trashing Pa.

[BeyondGeography]

27. No, just Herman's description of The Base

[lumberjack_jeff]

57. Nice. Remind me again why your guy should be my flag bearer. n/t

[peoli]

12. Finally, after almost 40 states, HILLARY GETS A FAIR PRIMARY!

Damn the rest of the United States for not looking like fucking Pennsylvania!

If only there were 50 Pennsylvanias she would have it in the bag already!

Why does Jesus hate her?!!

[BringBigDogBack]

18. lol!

Nice.

[writes3000]

39. This was kind of funny.

Thanks for the laugh. Hopefully no one else takes offense.

[SoCalDem]

95. Because she might be a Hindu?

I'm not sayin' she is.. as far as I know......but...you'll have to ask her....

[thesubstanceofdreams]

15. She has won only one state by more than 20 points

Namely Arkansas. She didn't win NY by 20 points. She didn't win OH by 20 points, where she also had the support of the governor and hugely favorable demographics.

She will probably win PA (though it's not a given), but by 10 points max. And this is the most favorable state for Hillary remaining, so in all probability she will end trailing in popular votes, pledged delegates and total delegates.

Nice try though, but the number of goalposts is finite, and the end of the field is near.

[rodeodance]

74. too bad--a win is a win

[Shine]

17. There was some guy on msnbc last night saying even the Obama camp

think they'll lose PA....but it won't matter b/c of "the math".

"The math" vs "the perception" of winning.....

it's interesting.

[spooky3]

43. I don't think it's wise for the Obama camp to assume that FL and MI won't count

which is what it sounds as if they are doing - but I realize that this may be a misperception.

If those delegates are seated, the race is much closer. The state Dem. leadership in both states is currently negotiating with the national party about seating their delegates, vs. conducting a do-over primary or something else (see my poll, which includes a link to an article discussing this). I would be VERY surprised if some sort of compromise is not reached, and I don't think Obama can count on at least half of these delegates even with a "do-over". The national Dems. need for states to respect their rules, but the last thing they would want to do is to alienate Dem. voters in two big swing states.

on edit: if they were seated (which I don't think will happen, without a do-over of some type) Clinton could pick up more than 200 delegates:

http://www.nevadaappeal.com/article/20080126/ELECTIONS/136565177

"At stake: 185 delegates in a state where Clinton leads almost 2-to-1 (Florida).

The presidential candidate said Friday - just four days before Florida's primary - that she wants the convention delegates from Florida and Michigan reinstated. The national party eliminated all the delegates from those states - more than 350 in all - because they broke party rules against holding their primaries before Feb. 5. All the major Democratic candidates also made pledges not to campaign in those states before their primaries.

Clinton could claim most of the Michigan delegates because she won that state's primary after the other major candidates pulled their names from the ballot."

[polichick]

19. You WISH - that's not the Pennsylvania I live in...

:rofl:

[WinkyDink]

It is where I live, and have lived for 58 years. HRC will walk away with this one.

[polichick]

75. Not if the Philly suburbs have anything to say about it...

Obamamania is HUGE here ~ and the campaign has an amazing team that's working beautifully with the local boots on the ground. It will be very close in PA!

[WinkyDink]

104. Close is no, pardon the unfortunate pun, cigar.

[Alhena]

23. Latest poll had her leading by 6 points. Obama campaign said 9 delegates at most

would be won by Clinton there and they've been very conservative in their predictions along those lines.

The closed primary is an advantage for Clinton, but Obama's ground game has been working very hard to register new voters favorable to him.

[eggman67]

24. Yep, PA is Clinton country

They're very popular here, and I think your analysis is dead on. So many Obamabots don't seem to understand the mechanics of the convention process. She doesn't need to catch him, she just needs to keep it close, show some MO, and at worst just keep him from getting 2025 on the first ballot. After that, ALL delegates are free to vote however they wish. That's when the real politickin' starts and there's nobody better at that than the Clintons. This has brokered convention written all over it.

[philk17088]

69. PA isn't a lock for hillary

The Clintons are not well liked in PA. Our state is 2 blue metro areas spanned by a red state.
Ed Rendell doesn't hold sway the way he used to. Philadelphia will be Obama's and he will do well in the Allentown areas. Pittsburgh will be pro hillary. The rest of the state won't give a shit, its like alabama in between.

[eggman67]

70. Where in PA are you?

I'm just outside the Allentown area and I beg to differ. As a matter of fact the most recent Allentown Morning Call poll, just under 3 weeks old, has her up 14 points. The middle of the state, however red, still has dems and they still vote. Somebody's going to win those districts. Since even the dems in that area lean right, they'll likely break for Hillary. Don't underestimate Rendell's popularity, he's not in his heyday anymore, but he's still influential in many areas.

Then there's the Bob Casey factor. Casey is hugely popular in PA - God bless him for ridding us of Scrotorum - and he has yet to endorse anyone. You can bet that his phone will be ringing off the hook for the next seven weeks. Hillary helped him out in his 2006 Senate campaign so she may have an edge there; wouldn't surprise me a bit.

And what's the basis for the assertion that the Clinton's are not well liked in PA? Frankly, I think you're in for a surprise in about 7 weeks.

[WinkyDink]

105. Heh. I'm with you. Philly and environs think they're "it". But the Lehigh Valley, Carbon/Schuylkill

counties, W-B/Scranton area will be the deciders, NOT Lower Merion and Bryn Mawr!

[mirrera]

25. bull.

[Beregond2]

26. Pennsylvania

It is six weeks until the Pennsylvania primary. Look at the damage Hillary managed to do to Obama in only two. With his huge financial advantage, vastly superior organization, and endless number of damaging points to bring up about her, she won't know what hit her.

[msallied]

34. Yep

She is down to a single-digit lead and her funds are dwindling just as quickly. 7 weeks is almost like a year from now in political time.

[juajen]

66. Yeah, I bet.

Of course, it could look like he's ganging up on a woman and make people think he's a misogynist pig. Oink, Oink.

[robbedvoter]

28. Open primary = oxymoron. What is the fucking point of it anyway?

[mmonk]

29. I believe Obama is up in North Carolina.

[Zynx]

30. 4 points according to the most recent poll.

That ain't much.

[surfermaw]

51. Many women in N.C. for Hillary

[Obamaniac]

32. Only Clinton supporters don't think the math matters...

There are two more primaries between now and Pennsylvania: Wyoming and Mississippi. Obama will win both easily and will erase any delegate advantage Hillary may have won on Tuesday. If anything, he may come away with a lead if one puts all 6 contests together.

Keep spinning Clinton supporters.

[mudesi]

36. So was Ohio, and she only won by 10 points

And she only won Texas by 3.

[jefferson_dem]

40. Good. A closed primary means that Limpballs can't send his thugs over to vote for your girl.

That's the dirty little secret -- much of this latest surge in support came from Repug shenanigans in the Dem primaries.

[rodeodance]

46. as opposed to Republicans who crossed over to vote for BO.

[jefferson_dem]

47. Right.

n/t

[surfermaw]

52. Don't you realize that Limball and rep. Fear Hillary Clinton more than any one

[jefferson_dem]

59. Well, I would stipulate that they HATE Hillary more than any one.

[PM7nj]

63. Then why do they still want the in the race?

[AGirl]

41. caucus:

"Final point. The Obama campaign is proclaiming they won the Texas caucus by double digits. Indeed, that seems to be the case. Nevertheless, they need to be careful not to proclaim this too loudly. How will it look if Clinton wins a majority of the more than 2.5 million Texans who voted in the primary, but Obama wins the caucus in which about 100,000 people participated?"

[JimGinPA]

45. She's Currently Up 4 Points In PA - She Was Up 16 Two Weeks Ago

And by the way, Pa is filled with a lot of kinds of people, not just poor old people.

[rodeodance]

48. REC

[greyghost]

53. I see it playing out EXACTLY this way. Good post.

[Hoof Hearted]

54. Her national poll numbers continue to rise, Obama's continue to fall.

Hillary has the big mo!


:woohoo:

[greyghost]

56. Indeed

[rodeodance]

60. Hillary has the MOJO~~

[Hoof Hearted]

103. I think this is what's really driving them nuts. His poll numbers are dropping.

They can feel it slipping away.

[Little Star]

82. W00T!

[Bigleaf]

96. Well, unfortunately for her, her delegate numbers are falling also

with Obama beating her in Texas, grabbing 6 (I think) more delegates in CA, and netting himself 14 Supers in the last week alone.

[JPZenger]

61. Excellent Analysis projects Hillary with net 3 to 7 delegates from PA

The following is an excellent analysis of the current situation in PA looking at each congressional district that will provide pledged delegates. The conclusion is, that based upon current conditions, Hillary would win a net of only 3 to 7 pledged delegates from PA.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/5/124452/9353

Eastern PA has a large Latino population, but it is mostly Puerto Rican. Therefore, stereotypes about Mexican-American voters don't apply.

The suburbs of Philadelphia include well-educated persons who have been shifting from Repubs to Dem in recent years, and where Dem congressmen have been elected who are similar in viewpoints to Obama.

A high African-American turnout in key parts of Philadelphia could result in a lower gain by Hillary.

A 45-55 split in the popular vote in a congressional district would still only result in an even distribution of pledged delegates in that district. Therefore, neither candidate is likely to receive a huge net increase in delegates.

[kevin881]

65. Philadelphia, largest city in PA, 43% African American population.

2nd largest city, Pittsburgh, 27% African American.
Large cities = more delegates.

[rodeodance]

67. Gov. Ed Rendell, PA, Press Release

Forum Name General Discussion: Primaries
Topic subject Gov. Ed Rendell, PA, Press Release
Topic URL http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4915036#4915036
4915036, Gov. Ed Rendell, PA, Press Release
Posted by susankh4 on Wed Mar-05-08 06:15 PM

3/5/2008
Statement from Governor Ed Rendell on Yesterday’s Election Results
"Last night made clear that there has been a momentum shift in this race. Despite being outspent two-to-one, despite Sen. Obama benefiting from outside political funds, and despite all of the glowing press coverage he received leading up to March 4th, voters ultimately chose Senator Clinton. I am confident that Hillary is heading into Pennsylvania with momentum and a new energy.

"The people of Pennsylvania are focused on the two largest issues facing our nation - the state of our economy and national security. On both counts, Pennsylvanians understand how important it is to elect someone who is truly ready to become President and Commander-in-Chief. Hillary is ready to lead our nation, returning us to both prosperity and peace.

"We look forward to making our voice heard in the coming days and playing our part in determining the Democratic nominee. And when we do, the people of Pennsylvania will send a clear message - we want a President who is ready, not one we hope will one day be ready."

[NMMatt]

68. Haha that about sums up what it will take for Hillary to win the nomination

She'd have to sweep the remaining primaries, including PA, NC and IN. Unfortunately she's off to a very bad start by not even campaigning in WY and MS.

But you can always dream, I suppose :).

[laugle]

71. If her momentum continues, I think your analysis is very plausible!

The fact that Obama has done well in caucus states and mostly red states and only 1 big state, Illinois, should be of concern to everyone. People want to rely on silly polls that say he can beat McCain by 2 points, when we are not even in the GE yet, is a big mistake!

Hillary has shown that she can win all the large states and the democratic stronghold states and this bodes well for us, if we want to win the GE!

[DrFunkenstein]

72. I Thought Wisconsin Was Clinton Country

You also forget that the superdelegates backed Clinton out of FEAR OF RETRIBUTION. They don't need cover to support her, because the fact is that they are not thrilled about appearing on a ticket with her at the top.

If given an anonymous choice, the superdelegates would go to Obama. And they are.

[Robbins]

73. Pennyslvnia

Reality Is she will likely win her however there Is a chance to keep the win In Single digets.
That will keep her from getting much delegates.

As for the talk the only state Obama won that matters Is Illnois remember he won the Blue states of
Washington,Hawaii,Minnesotta,Wisconsion,Vermont,Maine,Maryland,Connectuit Plus the states that
could be In play Colorado,Missouri,Iowa,Virginia.

[David Zephyr]

77. Rush Limbaugh can't get his listeners to help Hillary as he did in Texas.

Hmmm.

[Avalux]

79. That statement might have been true 20 years ago.

PA is quite diverse now; especially the metropolitan areas. As a native from rural PA, those "downscale older white males" of which you speak (those left in the state), at least the ones I know, are going to vote for Obama.

[Hazelrah]

81. I live and work on the Main Line

very close to Valley Forge Park and all the dems I know are telling me they are going for Obama. I even know one independent who told me today that she has decided to register as a democrat so she can vote Obama in the primary.

I can't speak for western PA but from my small sample of eastern PA and my knowledge of Philly, which I grew up in, it seems eastern PA will go Obama.

I don't know if the two sides of PA will end up canceling each other out but if it doesn't go Obama I would bet good money (if I had any) that it would be a near tie.

Just one MainLiner's opinion, don't flame me. :hi:

[BumRushDaShow]

86. On KYW today

I heard that there have been a large influx of people who were changing registrations from independent and Republican to Democrat so I think you are spot on. :hi: I know that Montco has been slowly going from red to blue over the past 20 years and it's wild to see that a congressional district like PA-13, that was once the bastion of red has now become easily blue without barely a fight. Alot of people have had it with the mismanagement of this country and are looking for a change.

[babylonsister]

94. Great news-thank you!

:hi:

[Jersey Devil]

83. Ah, the clever plan revealed

"The math won't matter at that point. Hillary will look like the winner and the superdelegates will flock to her."

There's only one problem with that. If the superdelegates overturn the lead in elected delegates that Obama will go into the convention with half the Democrats will get up and walk out in protest and Hillary will have guaranteed herself a loss in November. Obama can come back in that scenario in 2012. Hillary can't - she'll be finished.

Basically, you're screwn

[avrdream]

84. Yeah, the numbers in PA look pretty good for her, last I looked.

Go the MO!

[grantcart]

88. lol The math won't matter at that point lol idiotic as usual

[WinkyDink]

97. Exactly. Precisely. I'm in the Lehigh Valley, and I'm taking virtual bets!