So Obama will likely win the Mississippi primary

[Bake]

Given that he has typically carried 85% or more of the African American vote, it is extremely likely that he will win the upcoming Mississippi primary.

Does it matter? Does anybody here think that he can win what is most likely the reddest of the red states? Here's a hint: he can't. Nor can Hillary. No Democrat can.

Obama has shown a real ability to win primary states that no Democrat can win in the general. What he has yet to do is win a big BLUE state.

Bake

[NYCGirl]

1. So do you think those big blue states are going to go GOP? NT

[Bake]

I certainly hope not! And I don't think they will.

BUT -- in those big blue states, Obama is not the first choice of Democrats. That's one reason I think Sen. Clinton makes a strong case for the nomination. She's the popular choice in Democratic bastions.

Bake

[Growler]

27. Right....

Because you only need Democrats to win the general election....

[movonne]

41. I don't think so anymore....seeing the ones defecting to Obama..

[KittyWampus]

52. keep pretending only Clinton can or has won "big blue states". Keep ignoring purple states.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

65. MISS Secretary of State Plans Big Voter Purge

Burning Voters in Mississippi

By: Rebecca Wakefield Project Vote- February 26, 2008

Not since the civil rights era have minorities and young adults exercised their right to vote in the numbers seen thus far in the presidential primary season. But the battle for enfranchisement never ends. Currently, the voting rights of vulnerable groups are under attack in Mississippi, in a faint echo of the Jim Crow era.

A new Secretary of State, Delbert Hosemann, is championing a bill (SB 2910) in the state legislature that, if passed, would likely strip thousands of poor, elderly, and minority voters from the voting rolls, simply for missing this year’s federal election.

Whether or not that was not the intended effect of the legislation, the threat was real enough that Project Vote wrote Senator Terry C. Burton, the bill’s sponsor, a letter pointing out the bill’s flaws and its contradiction of a federal voting rights law, the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA).

Touted as a package of generally positive election reforms, the bill includes a provision that would throw citizens off the voter rolls if they do not cast a ballot between Nov. 3, 2008, and Dec. 31, 2009. Purged Mississippians would then have to re-register to vote. Not only would this disproportionately affect minority, young and low-income voters, it also runs counter to the NVRA. And because of the wording of the bill, it is possible that even absentee voters, who are primarily elderly or disabled, could be kicked off the rolls.

read more at the link

[557188]

Its all about Ohio

McCain would beat Obama in Ohio

Hillary would win Ohio against McCain

[RamboLiberal]

44. Wait till McCain gets in to Ohio and scares the crap out of them

One issue I bet he runs on is Hillary's health care plan will garnish your wages or make you pay a fine! And they will remind voters that the Clintons were responsible for the Assault Weapon Ban and the stupid "Clinton Magazines(10 round limit)". Watch the blue collar run from her!

[WVRevy]

71. Yeah, 'cause all those anti-NAFTA people...

...will suddenly fall all over themselves to support the biggest free trader in the race?

A mind is a terrible thing to waste.

[nonconformist]

19. Ohio might. So might Florida.

And, frankly, I think other states will be in play for the GOP if Obama is the nominee. I know that people in Michigan are really pissed off about their votes being disenfranchised, and many are very upset that Obama is saying they shouldn't count.

[democrattotheend]

35. OH and FL are blue states?

If they were, wouldn't we be in the 8th year of the Gore Administration?

[nonconformist]

42. They better be this time, or say hello to President McCain. nt

[adoraz]

2. of course it matters

his lead there will probably offset Ohio's delegates.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

3. Nothing. Nothing.

It's uncontested.

[Alhena]

10. Hillary is speaking at a dinner in Mississippi tomorrow- it's contested

[Bake]

16. Yes, it is contested.

I've gotten several campaign emails discussing the MS primary. If I recall correctly, she will be opening a campaign office here shortly.

Obama, by the way, opened his MS office over on State Street in Jackson a few days ago.

Bake

[theboss]

Except Illinois and Wisconsin and Maryland and Minnesota and Washington and maybe Virginia

But you are right...he has no record in the Blue States.

[ingac70]

4. You think California would go to McCain?

Guess again.

It's the broader appeal that we need to win in November.

[Deep13]

11. It went for Reagan in 84 and Nixon in 72.

[ingac70]

22. Two home state boys... n/t

[book_worm]

34. Survey USA last poll of CA had Obama doing better than Hillary in California.

[Deep13]

48. oh well...nt

[NJSecularist]

5. He has won Illinois.

And it really doesn't matter if he hasn't won any big blue state, New Jersey, New York, California and Massachusetts will all go to Obama if he is nominated.

[Bake]

21. Of course he won Illinois, it's one of his "home states"

And since he's a sitting Senator from Illinois, had he LOST that state he should've packed it in and gone home.

Bake

[MadBadger]

28. Most recent poll from SurveyUSA out of NY shows Obama up 21 over McCain and Hillary up only 11

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=b86ce8ea-720b-4ac1-9c03-b7e41e2988fd

[RunningFromCongress]

6. Reagan won the bluest of blue

[ingac70]

30. And Reagan is the reason alot of blue states...

are now blue... from the damage he did.

[book_worm]

7. We're back we're we began. Oh well he will also win Wyoming

another red state. Who cares? they have delegates and it will keep advancing him to the nomination.

Polls also seem to indicate that Obama runs better than Hillary in states like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, Oregon and even in her own NY. He also has a shot at winning Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia and other states while Hillary loses.

p.s.
Keep discounting all those "red states" because that is why Obama continues to be ahead of Clinton in pledged delegates because those states didn't matter.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

8. Do you think Clinton is going to win Texas?

:rofl:

[aquart]

68. Yes. The Democrat will win Texas.

Did you bother to look at the turnout? At the votes cast for Democrats vs Republicans? Do you think crossover was frivolous? Just something to do till they vote for McCain?

Banks will be failing by November. Nobody wants a Republican in office when we are faced with breadlines.

[tekisui]

9. He PRODUCES Blue states: MO, CO, VA, IL

[Deep13]

15. Let there be blue states! And Obama saw the states...

...and saw that they were good.

[nomorewhopper]

17. exactly!

red state vs. blue state is a totally different game under an obama nomination

with hillary, its the same old red vs. blue

[knixphan]

55. that's exactly right.

[aquart]

69. He had so much less to do with it than you think.

These states were turning before he entered the race. Yeah. The rage has been building.

[tekisui]

72. I'll take that.

They will still have a better chance at turning blue with an Obama Nominee.

[cali]

12. Yes, it matters. Let me explain it to you in really simple terms

since you have trouble grasping basics: This is the primary, not the general. The point is to win as many delegates as you can. There are 33 pledged delegates in Mississippi. If Obama can win by a 25 or 30 pt margin, he will get quite a few more of those delegates than Hill. He will pull even further ahead in the pledged delegate count. See? Simple.

[Bake]

25. Cali, I really am tired of your condescending bullshit.

You used to be a respected DUer. What the fuck happened to you?

Bake

[ingac70]

45. You are an idiot...

For suggesting we stick with a candidate that can only win states we won in the past. We need to turn a couple of red states blue, and Hillary can't do that.

[cali]

47. I don't like stupid game playing

about this stuff. YOU know damn well that Obama will win, in the general, the blue states that Clinton won in the primary, just as Clinton will win the blue states that Obama won in the primary.

Furthermore, he won Illinois. Yes, it's his home state but it surely counts, just as NY counts for Senator Clinton. And there are a lot of medium size states that he's won, as well.

You used to not engage in this sort of nonsense. Now you do. And I don't have much respect for that. I don't post gotcha threads- tempting as it sometimes is.

[MadBadger]

13. State that matter to dems in the GE that Obama won.

Colorado, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Missouri, Washington, Vermont, Connecticut, Deleware, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, DC, Minnesota,

[Exilednight]

14. Mississippi is not the reddest of red states, that honor goes to......

Utah, where eve the Democrats elected to office are repugs.

Second, yes Obama can carry Mississippi in the GE if he can get a huge proportion of the African-American vote to turnout in for the GE.

[ingac70]

33. %36...

that is the percentage of blacks in Mississippi.

[Exilednight]

40. That's pretty high. The number that really matters is how many are registered voters.

[Maddy McCall]

62. Unfortunately, in Mississippi, felons lose voting rights.

Wish it were not so, but it is. This has a huge impact on the numbers of African Americans who vote.

I've seen the Republican party here use dirty tricks...putting out fliers in the black communities that if people who have warrants even for traffic violations, they'll be arrested at the polls.

I hate this kind of politics. But the Republican party and CCC use it to the hilt.

:(

[Maddy McCall]

63. We have more black elected representatives than any other state.

And that can only happen if blacks and whites vote for black candidates. So that's a good thing...unfortunately, there are many negatives in Mississippi politics, too.

A judge just ordered that Mississippi require voter ID. Republicans in Mississippi would like nothing better than to return us to the day of poll taxes and literacy tests.

[ingac70]

70. The literacy tests would help get rid of the Republicans.

:evilgrin:

[Maddy McCall]

61. No, he won't carry Mississippi in the GE. No way.

Just won't happen. Sad to say.

[TomClash]

18. Who cares?

Don't the Dems in those states have voting rights? More people have voted for Barack. And he has more delegates.

Here's a flash: Illinois is a big BLUE state.

[sandnsea]

20. Obama Has Won More Blue States

He has won WA and IL which are big blue states. Hillary has won MA and CA by winning the RED RURAL voters.

Obama's blue states:
WA, HI, MN, WI, IL, ME, CT, MD, DE, VT

Hillary's:
CA, MA, NY, RI, NJ,

Based on BLUE States, Hillary still has no basis to claim she can beat Obama.

[democrattotheend]

32. Forgot DC

Not a state but 3 electoral votes, and the bluest voting bloc in the country.

[Perky]

23. Illinois? Virginia/ Connecticut? Wisconsin?

Do you really thin that folks in deep blue states who voted for Hillary would not vote for Obama?

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

24. yawn

[totodeinhere]

26. Voters in Mississippi should be able to state their preference...

regardless of whether it's a blue state or a red state. Are you suggesting that we should only count results from primaries and caucuses held in blue states? That would sure disenfranchise a lot of voters wouldn't it.

[Bake]

57. Of course they should, and I never suggested otherwise.

Bake

[Maddy McCall]

29. Here's one scenario I see playing out...and I do agree with you...

But with the nomination of McCain sealed, Mississippi Republicans will do what they ALWAYS do. They'll cross over to vote in the Democratic Primary. MANY of them will.

And when they do, no one can even begin to guess whether they'll vote for Clinton or Obama.

The Republicans will influence our primary. How, I don't know.

[Capn Sunshine]

37. They ALWAYS influence our primaries

Remember Rove saying Howard Dean was they one they wanted ?

It will be interesting to see what's left in the grab bag

[FrenchieCat]

31. He won Big Blue States........

and I guess you are saying that Black people votes don't count. I'll make sure to let my family and friends know this.......cause that just helps us understand that it won't mean anything if we stay home in November if Hillary was the nominee.

[Maddy McCall]

38. You are so full of shit. He never said that black people's votes don't count.

[Bake]

58. Maddy said it better than I can: You are so full of shit.

I did not say that!!

This is what fucking KILLS me about Obamatons: you are so quick to throw the race card out there, when race was never mentioned or implied originally. YOU are ones, along with Obama himself, who have injected race into this campaign, and YOU do it when it suits YOU.

My ignore list is growing.

bake

[Starbucks Anarchist]

36. I forgot Illinois, Washington and Wisconsin were tiny hamlets.

[saracat]

39. He didn't win Arizona

[ingac70]

46. He won Virginia though...

a state that went for us in '06, but not in '04. Hillary won't win Virginia.

[saracat]

59. Don't bet on that Mark Warner won Virginia. So can Hillary.

[ingac70]

60. Keep deluding yourself. n/t

[saracat]

74. Mark Warner didn't win in Virginia? I could have sworn he was Governor !

And isn't he running or thinking of running for the Senate? how am i delusional? In a GE Hillary is a lot closer to Warner, who is very popular.

[Mass]

43. We know - The Clinton camp decides what matters, what we should think, ...

Worse than Soviet Russia. In addition of what you said being patently false. Obama won as many Democratic states as Hillary, as many big states than Hillary. The rest is the lies you have accepted.

[Cha]

49. Obama has..you need to do the

math.

[DrFunkenstein]

50. Based on Small Black and Youth Turnout. Obama Is Rewriting The Text Books.

I'm hardly saying that he will sweep the South. But it is ridiculous to claim that Obama cannot sneak one or two extra states with massive turnout on his side (which was the decider in 2004).

[thoughtcrime1984]

51. He would defeat the GOP in states like CA, NY, MA, NJ

just like Hil would. He is the one with a chance of turning purple states blue, not Hillary. The electoral college advantage is to Obama.

[goodgd_yall]

56. He can also turn blue states red

I'd say Ohio is one of them.

[thoughtcrime1984]

75. You mean the Ohio that was red last time? nt

[Alexander]

53. He'd win Michigan in a fair vote.

Lots of people didn't turn out in Michigan, and those that did voted for "Uncommitted" by 40%. Hillary ran in a Soviet-style primary and she couldn't top 55%.

I say let them re-vote. But then Obama would win, so you can't have that, can you?

[Lucinda]

54. I'm not going to discount Mississippi just yet.

Though Wyoming seems a lock for him.

[LiveLiberally]

64. Aside from the issue of whether Blue versus Red States are relevant in the Primaries....

Hillary is simply not winning "the big blue states" (outside of New York and Mass and the former was a gimme) by large enough margins to argue that she convincingly has won the "popular vote" in democratic strongholds. Any win of by 10 points or less (i.e. California and New Jersey) is hardly a blow-out and the vast majority of these democratic votes will vote Obama if he is the nominee.

What is much more striking is how well Obama has done in swing states such as Missouri and Virginia. The best way to win in November is to EXPAND on the democratic state base rather than simply count on the same old standbys and then agonize over Florida and Ohio.

Finally, the state "head-to-heads" polls are most reliable indicator now of national election trends in states that have already voted. Here head-to-heads (McCain v Obama, McCain v Clinton) consistently show that Obama is the stronger candidate in BLUE states against McCain. For example, in the latest California head-to-head Obama leads McCain 61-34% while Clinton leads McCain 58-35%. http://www.surveyusa.com/electionpolls.aspx

[Splinter Cell]

66. Hillary...

Before anyone gets all excited and starts the whole "she can win the big states" crap, know this: Hillary could NOT carry Texas or Ohio in a general election. Barack wouldn't even carry Texas for that matter.

She can't win in the south, she can't win in the southwest. Obama has proven that he can bring people together, including the all important independents and stray republicans. He can win more ground in November, that's a fact. He is the stronger candidate.

I live in Butler County, Ohio. It's as red as it gets here, but Obama is exciting people. I've heard many say, however, that they would 100% support McCain if he were running against Clinton. There are a great number of voters out there ready to vote for our party, but won't if we make the wrong choice.

[zulchzulu]

67. Post-Katrina Mississippi is certainly pissed at Repugs

I see it as a chance to make Mississippi blue. Why the hell not?

:shrug:

[Maddy McCall]

73. No it's not. Haley Barbour was re-elected overwhelmingly in the recent election.

Post-Katrina.

YOu know very little about Mississippi politics.