http://www.burntorangereport.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=782F46D1AAB0965D1A08BAEB91702778?diaryId=5298Obama Campaign Declares Delegate Victory in TX
by: Phillip Martin
Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 02:59 PM CST
From their release:
"By fighting the primary to a near-draw and earning a resounding victory in the caucus, the people of Texas have moved Barack Obama one step closer to claiming the Democratic nomination for president," said Adrian Saenz. "Texans in both parties and of all ages sent a clear message that the American people are ready for the kind of change that Barack Obama will bring to Washington, DC as our 44th President."
Because of the close finish, Senator Clinton will likely net only two delegates up-for-grabs in the Texas Primary. Based on a large sample of caucus results in all 31 state senate districts, Senator Obama is projected to post a substantial victory in the Texas caucus and, thereby, net at least seven delegates. This means that Senator Obama will win at least five more pledged delegates from Texas than Senator Clinton.
I contacted the campaign about their math in the primary -- my chart (and the Secretary of State) has it 65-61 in favor of Clinton. However, I've also received several reports that the Secretary of State is off on a few of their numbers (once you compare the county pages to the reported results on the Secretary of State page), so that may account for the other 2 delegates the Obama camp has.
Either way -- he's still up 55/45 out of the 38% of precincts that have reported. Whether she won by 2 or 4 in the primary, Senator Obama is still going to have a net delegate victory in Texas. It doesn't change the political perception of the Clinton victory -- a very real force -- but it also is a fact we should recognize.
Follow the caucus precinct returns here: