1968, AGAIN? How an Obama-Clinton Ticket Can Stop the Next Nixon and Put 2 Dems in the WH

[leveymg]

I woke up this morning afraid - this is too much like '68. Remember that year, that Convention, THAT Presidential election? I do, and I never, EVER want to go through THAT again.

A bitter Democratic campaign and election fought out in the midst of a divisive war and a wartime recession. A divided country, divided party going into a violently contested convention, winner-takes-all. Nixon wins.

Not again. Fortunately, there’s a way out of this nightmare.

Let’s discuss that, below . . .

Here’s the deal, one that gives Obama and Hillary each a key to the Oval Office. They would have to agree to a two-key system, like the launch controls on a nuclear submarine, on the powers of the Presidency.

Would that be acceptable to both sides if it avoided the sort of intra-party bloodbath and brokered convention that denies both the election? Perhaps, but is it possible?

***

First, we have to ask and answer a base-line question: What will happen if both sides push the button during the primaries, and go nuclear in the remaining Denocratic primaries before the convention?

For that, we have to take a cue from the Cold War Doctrine of Mutually-Assured Destruction. A mutual scorched-earth campaign risks poisoning the Democratic candidate, whoever that might be, in the general election.

Whatever the themes of attack are, those that seem to work best will surely be amplified by the McCain noise machine. Should we really give the GOP a head start and manual for nuking the Democratic candidate?

That raises a couple more questions: What would be the likely outcome if the party big-wigs end up deciding the candidate in a deadlocked convention. Seems like a prescription for disaster.

• What are the chances of a brokered convention, decided in the back rooms at the Denver Pepsi Center by Supers? Seems pretty high at this point, actually. If things continue as they are today, neither side will have sufficient delegates – pledged and supers – to achieve the magic 2025 needed to take the nomination on August 25. The whole thing may then come down to the decision made in the following three days about how the delegates from the disallowed Florida and Michigan primaries are split up. There’s no way that such a process is going to not set off a riot by those who lose that power struggle.

• What are the delegate totals at this point?
(lizardbox did part of the math).

Pledged Delegates
Obama: 1384
Clinton: 1230
----------------
Diff: 154 (Advantage Obama)
Super Delegates:
Obama: 198
Clinton: 243
-----------------
Diff: 45 (Advantage Clinton)
Total Delegates:
Obama: 1582
Clinton: 1473
-----------------
Diff: 109 (Advantage Obama)

Here's what's still up for grabs: http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/primaries/democraticprimaries/index.html
WY - 18 delegates
MS - 10
PA - 188
Guam - 9
IN - 84
NC - 144
WV - 39
KY - 60
OR - 65
MO - 24
SD - 23
PR - 63
________
727

Wildcards:

FL (redo? proportionate?) - 210
MI (redo? proportionate?) - 156

There are 794 (not including Michigan and Florida) total Democratic superdelegates.

Bottom line: If they split the remaining primaries 50/50, neither side will come anywhere close to the number of pledged delegates needed to nominate.

Then, if they split remaining supers, that still doesn't decide it. That moves the final, deciding decision to what to do about FL and MI, which may not be decided until the convention. Or, the issue may go to federal court. That sort of thing surely won’t go over very well with voting public.

A brokered convention will be a base-killer, no matter which side wins. A convention decided by party insiders would be the worst possible outcome, particularly if it follows a scorched-earth primary campaign. Expect a sharp drop-off in manpower and money to the Democratic candidate. By at least 20 percent. Given the high negatives carried around by both candidates, that would likely have the effect of handing the election to McCain.

If things continue on the same trajectory as last night, the result will be Mutually-Assured Destruction in Novemember. Both camps might, therefore, consider a co-Presidency deal, while such a deal can still be struck.

What is a Co-Presidency?

A co-presidency agreement is a legal contract signed by both candidates that lays out the terms of the relationship, assuming a Democrat wins the election, between the President and Vice President. Without changing existing constitutional arrangements, they could agree to give the Vice President effective veto power over virtually all key Executive Department decisions:

• joint-selection of Cabinet officers, Ambassadors, Supreme Court nominees, and other appointments;

• mutual agreement on the language of Bills submitted or signed by the President;

• and inclusion of the Vice President on the National Security Council and any other significant national security or domestic policy bodies

***

Is the prospect of an Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama ticket really so-fetched? Apparently not, as neither would rule the possibility out when asked about it by the moderator during the debate on January 31: See, http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=18599483

Moderator Wolf Blitzer of CNN asked the rivals whether they might wind up forming a "dream ticket." That seemed out of the question after the bitterness of the last few weeks — but maybe not:

"Would you consider an Obama-Clinton or Clinton-Obama ticket going down the road?" Blitzer asked.

"Well, obviously there's a big difference between those two," Obama replied. Clinton joined in the laughter that greeted his response.

Obama tried to sidestep the question, saying it was premature and presumptuous to speculate about vice presidents. But pressed further, he allowed that "Hillary would be on anybody's short list."

"Well, I have to agree with everything Barack just said," Clinton added, to more laughter.

After the debate was over, Obama and Clinton huddled on stage, whispering into each others' ears — and their body language seemed to suggest that these two candidates really liked each other.

It was as if both Clinton and Obama had decided there was too much to risk by repeating the harsh attacks of their last debate in South Carolina.

Do they still like each other enough two months later to consider really trying such a thing. One thinks they would, if they both recognized that either of their chances of occupying the White House may very well depend upon it.
________________________________________________
Cross-posted at Daily Kos: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/5/121330/2081/246/469610

[Sulawesi]

1. Co-presidency? I suppose the Clinton's may as well float this, seeing as they cannot win.

[leveymg]

10. The point is, neither side looks likely to win. That's because

of the disqualification of the delegates in MI and FL.

Looks like Lose-Lose at this rate, unless both candidates agree to some sort of substantive power-sharing arrangement.

Run the numbers yourself, and tell me if you come out different. 2025 cinches it.

[Sulawesi]

14. I did run the numbers. You can give HRC a big win in PA, splits the rest down the middle, and BO is

wins with 25 or so more of the remaining supers.

[leveymg]

17. Please show us the exact numbers, adding up the states.

If you're right, it would make me feel MUCH better.

[Sulawesi]

18. Do it yourself here...its fun...

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/delegate.counter/index.html

You have to add the TX caucuses...

[leveymg]

23. Please cut and paste or give us the readouts for scenarios? Thanks.

[Sulawesi]

26. I did...have HRC get +20 from PA, split the rest down the middle...allocate TX caucus 50:50 and

adjust the supers...

[leveymg]

27. Here are some updated numbers from AP/NYT. You may be correct

Total delegate count, including supers, according to AP/NYT this afternoon: http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-Campaign-Delegates.html

O - 1562
C - 1461

I believe number of supers remains 441 (not including FL and MI)

Split remaining supers 50/50 yields:

O - 1782
C - 1681

Remaining pledged delegates: 727

Split 50/50 yields:

O - 2145
C - 2045

Assuming everything from here on is an even split, Obama would enter the Convention with 120 more delegates than he'll need to wrap it up. As someone else pointed out, Hillary would need a 54/46 advantage to win. That seems about right. That would be about a 10 percent shift in her favor during the remaining primaries (and supers), which is possible, if not likely. Clinton could gain a lead if she is credited with delegates in the disqualified early Florida primary.

Conclusion: A brokered convention isn't actually likely, but that outcome is possible, and the contest is still too close to call.

[LulaMay]

2. It would have to be Clinton/Obama, if still possible.

[Warren DeMontague]

4. Why? He's winning.

What is the basis for arguing she should be on the top of the ticket? :shrug:

[LulaMay]

5. She is carrying key states, and I doubt he'd ask her......ego. She would have, but now I don't know

[Sulawesi]

7. Key states?! wtf. He is winning. Why is this fact so difficult to grasp?

[Warren DeMontague]

9. "Key States" are in the eye of the beholder. He's still winning.

Where do you get that he's got an ego? She's the one who erroneously based her entire early campaign on the inevitability of her nomination- that's not according to me, that's according to pundits who have consistently supported her.

I think if she manages to eke it out through connections to party pooh-bahs, she HAS to put Obama on the ticket because, like I said, as it stands now, he's winning. Obama putting Hillary on the ticket is more problematic, not because of his "ego" but because a great deal of his support derives from people who are unhappy with Hillary for her unapologetic IWR vote and a desire to turn the page on the tiresome bullshit this country has been through for the past couple decades, which she is a part of.

But the bottom line is, they're pretty much tied. There's going to have to be a way to reconcile both sides, if we -that's Democrats- are going to win in November.

Because THAT is what matters, not whether or not Baby boomers feel old because President Obama is younger than them, or whether or not Obama supporters feel cheated by Hillary getting the nom.

[LulaMay]

12. Really? Send that bit to Howard Dean and party leaders. It ain't a beauty contest.

[Warren DeMontague]

13. No, it's a numbers contest. Delegates.

And Obama is winning.

[Warren DeMontague]

3. Personally, I'd like to see Spider-Man swing down onto the stage and save the day.

[Mz Pip]

6. I remember 1968

I was there for the music in the park in the afternoon and the riots in the streets after 10pm. We were pretty naive back then. In retrospect I don't doubt that all that chaos shown on national television helped elect Nixon.

I hope this is resolved before the convention. I am not that optimistic, though. Riots in the streets will not be a good thing for the Democratic Party.

[Beregond2]

8. Co

Why waste time on such fantasies?

I am getting tired of people comparing the current situation to 1968. I was there, and believe me, this is nothing like that. America was on the verge of complete social breakdown, there was revolution in the air. Clinton's pathetic attempts to fight the tide of history are not in the same league. Thank God.

[NDambi]

11. Hillary and Bill any where near the WH again makes me as ill as Bush being there..sorry..no thanks

[grantcart]

15. Obama only needs 46% of remaining delegates to get the nomination

727 PD
284 SD
1031 total delegates left


Obama's magic number is about 464 (won't know until final Texas delegates are decided)

464/1031 = 46%

Obama has 80 % of the superdelegates announced in the last 4 weeks

Obama will secure the nomination well before puerto rico. Last night helped him although it would have been nice to won Texas



Clinton knows this. This is no longer about the nomination. Anyone who can add knows that. Clinton is raking in $ 1,000,000 and

only spending a fraction of that. Now she continues and will bring in more money, pay back the loan and pack away 20-30 million for

a future war chest- just like she did when she ran for Senate. In the meantime she may be able to so weaken Obama that he will lose

the GE and open it up so that she can run again in 4 years.

[leveymg]

20. If HRC continues to hold momentum, she will get >54% of remaining

One has to do a State by State. She'll probably take PA, Obama MS, both by big margins. After that, harder to say what proportions will be. It's going to be close. HRC still has an edge in supers, and the remaining are likely to tilt with the flow.

Too close to call, really. MI and FL could screw everything up. That's the problem.

[grantcart]

25. There is no way that Obama will not get the nomination

She is going to lose the following states


Mississippi
Wyoming
Montana
South Dakota
Oregon
Gaum (territory and caucus)
North Carolina

and everytime she loses her number goes up.

As for SD in the last 4 weeks 82 have endorsed and only 16 have endorsed Clinton 20%

Please remember that her one night of great victories ended up with maybe a net +15 delegates. Texas is going to give Obama more delegates than Clinton.

[LaPera]

16. What a nightmare: Clinton/Obama or Obama/Clinton ticket, talk about an easy exploit .....

these two losers are for the republicans......not even 30% of the all the registered voters in this country even voted in these past primaries....Man, the republicans are happy as clams rubbing their hands what an easy ticket to turn for them and get those voters out to vote....the racist, the sexist and the moderate voters and there are plenty....to go along with all their republican & Libertarian voters.

This ridiculous Dem sideshow for republicans entertainment is going all the way to the Dem Convention undecided, that's a fact. And the Dems will come away, either way, a divided party....Oh yes, they'll put up a great front, saying they are together and let's kick McCains ass...but it will be a divided party in this country....just as the republicans want & like it....people are just too fucking stupid to see it...or is it their egos, so many see this like a football game yea for MY team!

Just think, we are going to have to have these two losers around for the next two or three more presidential elections in the future...sticking their face in at every opportunity for many years to come....

The republicans and their media really know how truly easy it is to manipulate the American minds and put the candidates they want to face....not only that they have infiltrated the Dem party so thoroughly through the DLC, people like Lieberman, moderate & conservative democrats (Dems in name only) and corporations.

This is truly a nightmare for many years to come and with the republicans easily stealing presidential elections through their 85% in place electronic voting machines....it'll be a snap to fix it for McCain all he has to do if behind is stay close.

[frazzled]

19. Hillary Clinton has made your scenario impossible, and here is why

She can neither chose him for her VP nor serve as his for the following reason:

She has based her whole campaign on the idea that Obama is not ready for the presidency. That he is inexperienced. That he can not be trusted to pick up the phone at 3am. Her recent bounceback is largely attributable to this idea.

Now, the main and foremost qualification for the vice-presidency is that he or she be prepared immediately to take over if something should happen to the president.

Hillary Clinton, by her own logic, can not choose someone she has lambasted time and again as being unprepared and not up to the job. Nor can she work for someone she has deemed unqualified for the job. If she even tried, the Republicans would be playing her words back in wall-to-wall ads the whole campaign season.

So forget that. Hillary has made any kind of "dream ticket" impossible. Or at least impossible to win with.

[leveymg]

22. That's just one lame TV spot. She'll shift her rhetoric, if she has to.

eom

[Eurobabe]

21. Not after they've trashed each other about lack of FP experience

They'll have just about handed November to the Pukes.

[Bobbieo]

24. THank you for the 1968 shot. it may open some eyes as to what can happen

if the Demo radicals take over the convention.