Ohio's Incredible Significance: Must Win Ohio to Win the GE

[amborin]

from Wikipedia:

"Ohio's demographics cause many to consider the state as a microcosm of the nation as a whole. A Republican presidential candidate has never won the White House without winning Ohio, and Ohio has gone to the winner of the election in all but two contests since 1892, backing only losers Thomas E. Dewey in 1944 (Ohio's John Bricker was his running mate) and Richard M. Nixon in 1960. Consequently, the state is very important to the campaigns of both major parties."

Hillary Clinton's big Ohio victory is highly significant.

Thanks, Ohio, for moving her along toward the GE!!!!!!!!!!

[slick8790]

1. This is a primary.

Not a general election. Hillary Clinton's victory is significant of nothing more than republican crossover, racism, and easily duped voters.

[amborin]

3. winning the Ohio primary is essential to winning the GE

and as for your nasty comment.....

that can be said of Obama: his supporters are crossovers, racists, and easily duped voters with no knowledge of US history

[slick8790]

8. Hmmm, except the difference is

You're just talking bullshit.

It's been posted numerous times that RW radio encouraged republicans to crossover and vote for hillary to prolong the primary.

It's been posted numerous times that in a CNN exit poll, out of people who said race was an issue, they broke decidedly for Hillary.

And the idea that Hillary is any better on the economy or trade is ludicrous as they have almost the same positions and records. These are duped voters.

[SeaLyons]

16. Excuse me

but you are wrong. I don't care what the radio hacks are saying, the exit polls have shown that the crossovers are independents and repuks to Obama.

[Nexus7]

31. Easily duped voters

Yeah, easily duped voters. You meant Obama voters, of course? The ones who think he had better judgement on the war without a legislative record to actually back it up?

And of course, right wing radio controls the Democratic primary elections; they pick who to vote for. The voters then merely echo that directive.

[skipos]

11. Yes, when Dukakis won the Ohio primary, he knew the general election was in the bag

Question: If our dem nominee wins all the Kerry states and Virginia and Iowa, will they become President?

[Hepburn]

32. Tell that to FDR, OK?

:rofl:

[Cha]

44. They don't care about FDR!

mahina (1000+ posts) Wed Mar-05-08 05:20 PM
Original message
"If you can't win Ohio, you can't win the Presidency, unless you can."



http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4912476

[aquarius dawning]

15. that's obviously the standard Obama talking point but it doesn't fully measure the significance

of Hillary's winfor at least two reasons that I can think of immediately: 1.) Ohio almost never gets to cast a vote for a primary candidate that hasn't already been basically declared the winner. That was not the case this time and it's a significant fact worth pondering at greater length; 2.)Ohio is a swing state. You can not assume that Ohio will support Barack obama simply because he is the nominee. The fact is, it was apparent last night that the only support Barack Obama had in Ohio came from a handful of large metropolitan areas with disproportionately high numbers of AA voters. That will not be enough to secure the state in November and, as such, will cost the Barack Obama the presidency.


and as an afterthought: 3.) Ohio will listen to McCain on national security issues.

[slick8790]

20. We don't need Ohio.

In fact, they and Florida are lost causes. Too many voting irregularities, too many crazies for us to win an election, especially a Diebold run one. We need to win other ways. Which is one reason I support Obama, because polls have shown he could flip states like Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia, as well as others.

[sandnsea]

2. Missouri is a bellwether too

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missouri_bellwether

[amborin]

4. but Ohio has legendary significance

[sandnsea]

10. Click and read the link

so does Missouri.

[Dawgs]

5. Hillary lost all of the major cities. Does she expect to only win the conservative rural areas?

[Independent-Voter]

9. Ohio rednecks sure as hell aren't going to vote for HRC in the GE if it comes to it

Spend some time around Zanesville, Portsmouth, Nelsonville and feel the love for HRC!

[amborin]

13. you disparage Ohio voters

[LisaL]

23. But they will just be lining up to vote for Obama. Right.

[amborin]

12. Hillary won Ohio by a large 12% margin

[aquarius dawning]

17. looking at the map, it's clear that Obama can count on winning about 5 counties in Ohio

and that will be about it. He'll lose in Ohio and, if history is any predictor of the future, he'll lose the Presidency in Ohio. ohio is a swing state. Don't assume that it won't swing for John McCain over Barack Obama. Ya'll need to be asking yourselves some different questions I think.

[LisaL]

25. Well, winning the conservative rural areas is how Bush won

OH. Kerry was way ahead in Cleveland.
I am just saying.

[underpants]

6. +12 yesterday for Hillary

Late-breaking numbers out of Texas’ odd two-phase voting system put an asterisk on Hillary Clinton’s Tuesday night victory speech, showing gains made by Barack Obama in the delegate grab race had all but numerically canceled out her big win in Ohio.

Although Clinton got a major boost in morale by winning more raw votes than Obama in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island (she lost to Obama in Vermont), an Associated Press count of the delegates shows Clinton only reduced her opponent’s lead in delegates by 12.



http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/03/05/democratic-nomination-battle-now-focuses-on-wyoming/

[RBInMaine]

7. In the general election, Obama will get her votes.

You can't compare a primary win to a general election win. This is where you are going wrong. (i.e. in CT, Lamont beat Lieberman quite handily in the Dem primary, and lost quite badly in the general because Lieberman got the I's and crossover R's.) Hillary also edged out to win TX. Do you think she'll carry that HEAVILY red state in the general just because she won the Dem primary there? Not likely. If Obama is the nominee, he will get Hillary's general election OH votes, and probably even more I's and crossover R's. Don't confuse the primary with the general election.

[amborin]

14. historically, you need to win the Ohio PRIMARY to win

that's why the special significance of Ohio

its PRIMARY has special meaning for a candidate's ability to win the GE

[Hepburn]

34. Hint:

Apparently you need to fact check ~~ the follwing Democrats LOST in the Ohio primary:

JFK
FDR
Woodrow Wilson

Recognize any of those names....or are you relying on that IDIOT and LIAR Hillary Clinton for historical facts viz the Ohio primary? Hey, she is either stupid or lying....I think most of us know what she said is NOT factual.

Egg on your face much??? :eyes:

[aquarius dawning]

18. No he won't. I've lived in Ohio for 27 years. Ohio sent Obama a message last night.

Haven't you figured that out yet?

[Hepburn]

35. I am a native Ohioan....

...you think you have dibs on Ohio or something?

[arewenotdemo]

39. I agree. The message was clear: don't waste too much time, energy or money

on me in November when you're running against John McCain.

You should instead spend it on battleground states that aren't so backward...Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, New Mexico, Iowa, etc.

[LisaL]

22. Look where Obama lost. He lost by a huge margin in rural

counties.
I doubt he will get her votes there.

[Xero1]

19. How many?

How many of you actually debating it live in Ohio?

I do. I hate to tell you this but the counties Hillary won in the Primary 90% of them will go heavy for McCain. The areas the candidate will need to win will be the urban areas and they will need to win them heavy. This will be the only way to win Ohio.

Hillary did well by drawing on conservatives who had no need to vote in the Republican primary to vote for her and extend the race. I know this because my Neighbors who are life-long Republicans did and two of the Republicans in my office did. Hillary can't count on all those voters from yesterday to vote for her in November.

I'm an independent and I will fully admit I voted for Obama. But in November I can see myself voting for McCain like many like-minded independents who swung towards Obama. Which will further hurt her chances.

Cuyahoga county had some issues last night. Part of it was poor weather and the other part was poor planning. That area holds significant numbers of votes the nominee will need and many of them will feel alienated towards Clinton if she is the nominee.

I hate to break it to you guys but from living in Ohio for 30+ years and my experiences in Republican heavy rural and suburban areas a victory in a primary does not constitute a win in a general election. If you doubt me ask some Gentlemen named Kerry, Gore and Dukakis just to name a few.

[Nexus7]

28. Oh, is that so? How about the southern states?

By the same logic, most of the southern states that Obama padded his lead with, won't go Democratic in the general, so we should discount them immediately.

[Jonathan2000]

21. The Ohio bellweather argument is just spin

Ohio is much less important in electoral votes than it historically was. Texas and California didn't pass Ohio's electoral votes until the 1950s and now California has 3 times as much. Ohio has lost 5 electoral votes since 1976 and should lose 2 more in 2012.

[amborin]

26. is this how obama supporters dismiss a century of history? spin?

[Hepburn]

37. Before you continue to make a fool of yourself...

...look up some things about US History, OK?

[jenmito]

27. Spin is all they have left.

They won't win the delegate math.

[jenmito]

24. The beauty of Obama is he will win states Hillary wouldn't be able to win. Ohio will NOT make

Hillary our nominee. Do the math.

p.s. Obama will get more delegates out of TX than Hillary.

[amborin]

41. like small red states, like Idaho? where there are so few dems that it won't matter a rats

[jenmito]

45. No, like Missouri, Virginia, Wisconsin, and others.

[WVRevy]

29. She won by lying about his NAFTA stance.

And in the general, he'll be running against an unabashed Free Trader in McCain.

Next?

[amborin]

42. he tried to smear her nafta stance, and it backfired on him, cause they both have the same stance

[Hawaii Hiker]

30. I think Ohio is a must win if Hillary is the nominee, if it's Barack no because

I think he can win Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, & Nevada....I don't Hillary does well in these aforementioned states, so Ohio is a MUST if she's our nominee....

[snappyturtle]

33. Seems to me Ohio couldn't get it's act together for the last presidential

election....therefore, I could care less what the record previously was. Has Ohio got all that straigthened out?

[usregimechange]

36. This is true for Missouri too, oh wait, Obama won Missouri

[NMMatt]

38. Except Hillary will not win Ohio, nor Missouri - guaranteed

She won the primary by appealing to the racists, but the flip side is that she alienated the African American community. Her tactics make Ohio doubtful for either side, by reinforcing racist views about Obama making his appeal to ignorant whites much more difficult than had he only Rove-Republicans to deal with. However, the flip side is that she made it impossible for her to get enough African American votes to beat McCain in Ohio or even Missouri for that matter.

[amborin]

40. Hilllary won Ohio! She'll win the GE also!!!!

[Kukesa]

46. This Buckeye says "not a chance." n/t

[mudesi]

43. Are you Clinton supporters incapable of rational thought?

This is a primary, not a general election.

First they can't do math, now this?

[amborin]

47. no candidate, rep or dem, has won the GE w/o winning the Ohio primary

an exception was Kennedy in 1960, whose name was not on the Ohio ballot