Obama only needs 46% of remaining delegates to get the nomination

[grantcart]

All of the media pumping up of the Clinton campaign (so much for an Obama bias) overlooks that Obama took a huge step forward in closing out the delegates he needed to win the nomination.

The most conservative number that Obama will pick up from last night is 175 delegates (could much higher based on TX caucus and Ohio primary delegates not yet assigned 48 total)

His magic number starting this week was 644

Because of superdelegates and last night that number is 469.


There are 284 undeclared superdelegates

and 747 undeclared primary delegates for a total of 1031 undeclared delegates

469/1031 = 46%

Oh and since starting this I had to change the numbers. Another superdelegate announced for Obama.

[cloudythescribbler]

1. I would calculate the remaining PLEDGED delegates separate from the SDs ...

With 747 unpledged primary delegates, we could speculate:

If Obama gets half of the remaining total from ALL states, even though possibly losing Pennsylvania (a closed primary in a state where HRC is heavily leading) by a hefty margin, that would give him 370+ additional pledged delegates.

With that number, he would be only about 100 delegates from the nomination. There are a variety of possibilities at that point:

(1) a good number (say 100) superdelegates could rally behind him on the notion that he WOULD be the nominee in a contest that followed party rules that was SuperDelegate-free. This alone could give Obama the nomination, avoiding a brokered convention.

(2) Many of the delegates pledged to other candidates (eg Richardson, Kucinich, etc), and the 'uncommitted' delegates from MI could decide (under pressure of public opinion, and the Democratic Party key figures), to sign onto Obama -- these could easily come close enough to 100 so as to make a much smaller "en masse" gathering of previously uncommitted SDs sufficient. Once Obama clinches the nomination (hopefully BEFORE Pennsylvania) the pressure on HRC to withdraw or 'suspend' her campaign will grow.

-------------------------------------------------------------
But pressure coming from Obama partisans would only alienate an essential constituency that the Democrats need in November -- HRC's backers.

So there is a problem. Obama supporters (such as myself) could probably focus at this point NOT on urging withdrawal by HRC, but on winning over SDs, winning over the OTHER contestants for the nomination and their delegates, and trying to secure support from MI's uncommitted delegates. As Obama approaches the 450 mark, the point should be emphasized that a vote OTHER than for Obama is a vote for intra-party conflict.

[grantcart]

2. well thats what makes it fun we can all use the facts to work it out

but the bottom line is that there really is no math that supports a Clinton nomination

Oh and by the way in the last month Obama has taken superdelegates at a rate of 80%

In one week we will be beyond the 450 mark.

[zarath]

3. Clinton may not be counting on math to win this

She is counting on a back-room superdelegate deal.

We've already known for weeks that mathematically this would have to be decided by SD's.

Yes, there is a strong argument to be made for the SD vote to reflect the pledged delegate vote.

That doesn't mean Clinton won't try to make other arguments, and there is no rule that SD's MUST follow pledged delegates.

[grantcart]

4. The fact is that superdelegates have been abandoning Clinton like a sinking ship

for a week

Obama now has more elected Senators and Govenors than Clinton.

The more contentious it gets the more superdelegates will go to Obama to shorten the campaign. Since she started with the 3 am ad Obama has added 11 superdelegates.

[zarath]

5. While I hope that's the case

It remains to be seen. Unfortunately this slug-fest will continue for at least another couple of months, if not longer. I doubt the super delegates as a group will intervene as a group before the convention. I hope they do, and think they should, but that remains to be seen.

[grantcart]

6. In the last month 80% of the superdelegates went to him 66-16

one more today - from Ohio

[Kukesa]

13. Dayton's Mayor, Rhine McLin, announced

her support for Obama today.

She was on CNN and on the front page of "USA Today" because she wouldn't be swayed by the candidates themselves. She refused to take their phone calls or to return their calls and waited until Dayton went for Obama to make her announcement today.

BTW, grantcart, I think I'm in love with you . . . or maybe I'm just in love with your posts.:loveya:

[grantcart]

19. this is ackward because I am in love with your daughter lol

in the last 4 weeks supers have been super breaking 66-16 to Obama

[Kukesa]

22. OMG - we sound like those in-bred repubs! n/t

[underpants]

7. +12 yesterday for Hillary that's all

Late-breaking numbers out of Texas’ odd two-phase voting system put an asterisk on Hillary Clinton’s Tuesday night victory speech, showing gains made by Barack Obama in the delegate grab race had all but numerically canceled out her big win in Ohio.

Although Clinton got a major boost in morale by winning more raw votes than Obama in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island (she lost to Obama in Vermont), an Associated Press count of the delegates shows Clinton only reduced her opponent’s lead in delegates by 12.



http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/03/05/democratic-nomination-battle-now-focuses-on-wyoming/

[grantcart]

8. the hysteria is unbeliveable

for a group that hates the MSM the people in here sure have a hard time thinking independently

[underpants]

9. No I hate the MSM as much as anyone

but if I just stated that without something (yes even Fox) to back it up someone would ask my source on that. That was what I was doing giving you my source.

[grantcart]

10. sorry my answer was ambiguous I was saluting your factual approach

versus everyone including Obama supporters running around thinking the sky was falling. Last night Obama secured the nomination. It would have been nice to win the primaries but it is about the delegates and he did what he had to do.

[surfin]

18. It will be far less than +12

by this weekend when Tx and Ohio are done counting.

Mark it down.

She needs they said, to win 97% of all the delegates left to win. Obama needs 77%. So, it will be the supers who decide it.

[mahina]

11. Thanks grantcart,

your analysis is always reasoned and helpful. Mahalo.

[grantcart]

30. thanks for the aloha candidate

[NMMatt]

12. Great post

This is really the number that counts - delegates needed. I am pretty optimistic that he'll fight back harder in coming weeks and win the delegates needed (between super delegate commitments and electoral wins) to wrap it up probably by May, possibly June.

[grantcart]

14. thanks but it has no chance with the hysteria in here lol

[Scurrilous]

15. K & R

:thumbsup:

[book_worm]

16. I would say that Obama is probably going to win these states in next couple of months

Mississippi
Wyoming
Montana
South Dakota
Oregon
Gaum (territory and caucus)
North Carolina

I think he also has a good chance in Indiana in which some of the state borders his Illinois and should do well in cities of Gary and Indianapolis.

Plus I'm sure he will make it a good fight in Pennsylvania.

[grantcart]

20. very likely

[PseudoIntellect]

28. What do you think of his chances in Puerto Rico? Good?

[NMMatt]

17. Why I am optimistic

If he were to split the remaining pledged delegates giving him 374 he would only need 95 more super delegates or only 33%. At the rate he has been picking up super delegates he may be able to have a winning margin by May - after delegate rich NC and PA vote.

[grantcart]

23. correct

[bigbrother05]

21. kick

[grantcart]

24. today add 2 super delegates

[grantcart]

25. Obama's new magic number 466

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

26. good news. Kicked and Recommended

thanks for doing the math for us each day!

:yourock:

[grantcart]

29. thanks

It seems like nobody gets it but slowly people are getting the message that Tuesday was a big step forward for Obama. He faced Hillary's best primary day and neutralized it.

[grantcart]

27. add Burnett (TX) for Obama