For Obama Supporters Only ****Latest Delegate andSuper Delegate Update 3/5*****

[grantcart]

Actually there is nothing in here in terms of advocacy that is pro either Obama or Clinton. However in previous posts Clinton supporters objected to the label "camapaign neutral" even though it simply reported the facts.

Also only 2 posters on DU who have identified themselves as Clinton supporters have acknowledged the reality of the numbers so it seems fair to put the "Obama Supporters Only" in the subject line to save them the time of studying facts they are going to ignore anyway.


1) The number of delegates needed for nomination 2024

2) The allocation of delegates from March 4th primaries and caucuses

. . . . .Obama . . . . Clinton . . .Net Gain for Obama


Vemont . . 9 . . . . . . .6 . . . . . . .3

R. Island. 8 . . . . . . .13 . . . . . . .-5

Ohio . . .64 . . . . . . 74 . . . . . . .-10

Texas. . .62 . . . . . . .64 . . . . . . .-2

T. Caucus .8 . . . . . . .14 . . . . . . . 48 left to allocate Obama won the caucuses and is expected to go up +8/9


NBC's projection is that Hillary will have a net of + 8 Delegates from all four states


3) Obama's magic number for nomination 489 (Clinton 578)

4) SuperDelegate update for March +6 for Obama

3/1 DNC Weinike (WI) and Burkhalter AL for Obama +2
http://www.madison.com/tct/news//index.php?ntid=275115
http://www.al.com/newsflash/regional/index.ssf?/base/politics-0/120440335147910.xml&storylist=alabamanews

3/4 DNC Fowler (SC) Long (GA) Brooks (TX) +3
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/gGgBWr
http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/news/stories/2008/03/04/obamadelegate_0304.html
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/gGgBCZ

3/5 DNC McLin (OH) +1
http://1290whio.com/includes/news/indepth/5279860_Dayton_Mayor_Endorses_Barack_Obama_104020.html



5) Delegate Total

Obama 1472

Clinton 1390

6) Endorsements by Office

Senators Obama 11 Clinton 10
Govenors Obama 15 Clinton 12
Congress.Obama 69 Clinton 72

7) Upcoming Primaries


3/8 Wyoming 18 Delegates
3/11 Mississippi 40 Delegates

4/22 Pennsylvania 188 Delegates

5/3 Guam 9 Delegates

5/6 Indiana 84 Delegates
North Car 134 Delegates

5/13 W. Virg 39 Delegates

5/20 Kentucky 60 Delegates
Oregon 65 Delegates

6/3 Montana 24 Delegates
South Dakota 23 Delegates

6/7 Puerto Rico 63


Total Primary Delegates Left to be Decided in Primaries 747

Percent needed in all wins to get the confirmation 65% Obama 77% Clinton


Sources DemcomWatch http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/ohio-texas-vermont-and-rhode-island.html

NYTimes http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/index.html

[spotbird]

1. This is going to the convention

I hope President McCain's VP isn't a nut, at McCain's age and health he likely won't serve out his first term.

[bitchkitty]

21. Huh?

Maybe I need to get out more...

[grantcart]

32. im thinking an unhappy clinton supporter

[grantcart]

39. why do you think that?

[CountAllVotes]

2. thanks for posting this!

:dem: :kick:

[grantcart]

12. thanks

[mirrera]

3. Could you check Ohio I think you typoed... thanks for the info.

[grantcart]

7. thanks

[AtomicKitten]

4. I heard this A.M. the threshold was 77% for him and 94% for her.

Either way, winning this is a virtual impossibility for her.

[grantcart]

10. This is based on DemcomWatch's numbers and they have not

yet allocated TX caucus numbers which will show a pick up for Obama.

Also please realise that every day another super delegate comes out for Obama his % will go down and hers will go up.

[AtomicKitten]

11. rumor has it he has a 50 superdelegate bomb to drop

w00t

[grantcart]

18. we will see it could just be a superdelegate drip

3 drips yesterday
1 so far today

[book_worm]

5. I think several of the upcoming contests favor Obama:

Wyoming
Mississippi
Guam
North Carolina
Oregon
Montana
South Dakota

I think with a concentrated effort he can win Pennsylvania and Indiana. Indiana borders Illinois and Obama should run well in Gary, Indianapolis and other cities and hopefully in campus areas.

Obama is going to come out of the primaries I think with wins in between 34 and 36 contests. It's going to be difficult for the convention to turn him down with such a lopsided record. He will lead with pledged delegates and I think super delegates will go by that more than anything. Finally if he can win Pennsylvania, a big blue state, it's over in April for Hillary.

[thereismore]

8. PA is a lot like OH. She will win it. He will have more pdgs, but HC and BC will

twist hands at the convention to give her the nomination under a promise that she will take BO under her arm as VP (he is young, after all, he needs to learn from her, ...:puke:) It'll be disgusting.

[grantcart]

19. I'll take a duplication of Ohio she only netted 10 votes and it brought

his magic number closer. Once his number gets down to a couple of hundred there is going to be immense pressure on some superdelegates from African American superdelegates to do the right thing

[anigbrowl]

24. She could win PA...but so could Obama:

Let's face it, the campaign fucked up in a few ways in Ohio - primarily over the NAFTA thing.

First, his campaign sent out those flyers that had an error in them. A small error to be sure (quoting a news report summary of Clinton's position rather than Clinton herself), but one that allowed the Clinton campaign to accuse them of distorting the facts. A trivial argument you might say (compared to Clinton's 'I was aganst NAFTA the whole time, I just had to keep my mouth shut because evryone else was for it') but since their positions are lose small differences got magnified.

Second, the picture of Obama in Somali clothes. The campaign would have been better to just laugh it off and say they didn't care who sent it - and use the opportunity to hand out some other photos of Obama, eg a cute baby picture or something. Alternatively they could have mailed back one of Hillary's less successful wardrobe choices :-)

Third, the Golsbee-Canada issue. this was the most serious failing: it showed poor communication within the Obama camp. Paul Begala, a Clinton supporter was on CNN last night, and although he's supported Clinton he's actually been a pretty fair commentator. He argued that the smart thing to do from a political point of view would have been to say that Golsbee wasn't authorized to go speaking for the campaign with Canadians regardless of whether or not he was misinterpreted, and publicly fire him for exceeding his authority. He could always be forgiven later.

Fourth, the Rezko thing - I know it's a non-story in every way because I dug into it last year when I first heard about it, but that hasn't stopped Clinton surrogates talking about it like it was the scandal of the century, in the hopes that by giving it enough attention it would eventually grow some legs. The good news is that it will quite likely be over by the time PA rolls around anyway, or if not everyone will have got bored by then waiting for some fireworks which are never going to come. Meantime it might be worth Obama giving a TV interview on the subject. The way to defuse this story is to deluge people with the boring details.


In the meantime, now that the media have had their free news extended by several weeks (because it's relatively cheap to cover this stuff - 2 field reporters and some studio talking heads allows them to fill 12 hours a day on CNN), I think the next thing they'll do is switch their attention back to Clinton and ask some pobing questions in the other direction. They seem to be feeling they were manipulated into an Obama pile on last week by a guilt trip, and will be wanting to reassert their independence next.

[grantcart]

25. Obama only needs 46% of remaining delegates to get the nomination

I don't know how you can fault him on the Canadian thing as the Canadians now admit that they were completely at fault and have apologized. It took them a little while to figure out what the facts were but on whole Obama has been moving at lightning speed.

The only problem on Ohio and even Texas is that they let the expectation game get out of hand. They should have kept saying that she had 20 point leads in these states and they were going to get wiped. Then bringing it close would have been a victory.

[anigbrowl]

28. I don't blame them for the Canadian thing...

but just because it wasn't their fault and the Canadian side were stretching the truth doesn't alter the fact that it hurt a bit. In a fluid situation it is sometimes better to give strategy priority over integrity. Repairing minor damage after a win is preferable to being a beautiful loser.

On a related note, I see this morning the Canadian press is raking their government over the coals for having alienated the possible next President. If I were Obama I'd despatch Prime Minister Harper a dozen yellow roses from Texas.

[grantcart]

14. My understanding is she is conceeding Wyoming and Mississippi and not even going there

[thereismore]

26. Hell, I'm sure she is hugging some nice old ladies in WY as we speak! nt

[bigbrother05]

33. interesting

[thereismore]

6. Q: How many % of remaining pdg does she need to win to tie BO in pdgs?

Since you've done some calculations this should be easy for you to figure out. I want to have a clear picture of pdgs going into convention, without sdgs mixed in. Thanks.

[grantcart]

9. In order to tie Hillary would have to win 60% of the vote in all of the remaining elections.

Of course every time she gets less than 60% that percentage would go up for all of the remaining elections.

[thereismore]

15. Right. The % will grow a lot after next Tuesday. Talk about impossible odds. nt

[grantcart]

29. it will take a bit for the media to do the math

in a week they will all be talking about it.

[Sir Jeffrey]

13. "Clinton supporters objected to the label "camapaign neutral"...

...even though it simply reported the facts."


:rofl:

[grantcart]

17. well no law saying you can't have some fun

[Sir Jeffrey]

22. I know...this is really getting ridiculous...

This is not the behavior of a group of supporters acting rationally. If they want to steal the nomination from the candidate with the most votes, most pledged delegates, and most states, at least they should be honest and admit they just want her to win so bad that they don't care about how far ahead Obama is. At least I could respect them for being honest about it.

[grantcart]

20. all right all right it was only one

[Scurrilous]

16. K & R

:thumbsup:

[grantcart]

27. thanks

[grantcart]

23. Also there are 284 undecided superdelegates

[grantcart]

30. afternoon kick

[grantcart]

31. add one more sd Kidd (GA) for Obama

http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/news/stories/2008/03/05/kidd_0305.html

[writes3000]

37. How many superdelegates has Obama received since last night? n/t

[HooptieWagon]

34. Nice Job k&r

[grantcart]

35. tks

[usregimechange]

36. That ruled! Thank you! k/r

[grantcart]

38. add Burnett (TX) for Obama

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/illinois-superdelegate-williams-burnett.html

[grantcart]

40. Add Thurman (IN) for Obama

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080306/NEWS05/803060462/1008/LOCAL19

[grantcart]

41. Add Boxer (CA) for Clinton

This should not be considered very surprising as the Clinton/Boxer relationship is a very old one and their families even married. What is unusual about this is that Boxer will not make a public endorsement and says that her vote is based solely on the fact that Clinton won the CA primary.

[grantcart]

42. Obama's campaign Tuesday = net loss of 4 delegates

Our projections show the most likely outcome of yesterday's elections will be that Hillary Clinton gained 187 delegates, and we gained 183.

That's a net gain of 4 delegates out of more than 370 delegates available from all the states that voted.

For comparison, that's less than half our net gain of 9 delegates from the District of Columbia alone. It's also less than our net gain of 8 from Nebraska, or 12 from Washington State. And it's considerably less than our net gain of 33 delegates from Georgia.

The task for the Clinton campaign yesterday was clear. In order to have a plausible path to the nomination, they needed to score huge delegate victories and cut into our lead.

They failed.

It's clear, though, that Senator Clinton wants to continue an increasingly desperate, increasingly negative -- and increasingly expensive -- campaign to tear us down.

That's her decision. But it's not stopping John McCain, who clinched the Republican nomination last night, from going on the offensive. He's already made news attacking Barack, and that will only become more frequent in the coming days.

Right now, it's essential for every single supporter of Barack Obama to step up and help fight this two-front battle. In the face of attacks from Hillary Clinton and John McCain, we need to be ready to take them on.

[grantcart]

43. Obama's new magic number 464 - Clinton's is 563