Obama and The Myth of Pledged Delegates

[rodeodance]

Its the process that counts folks:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/stephen-schlesinger/obama-and-the-myth-of-ple_b_89977.html


Obama and The Myth of Pledged Delegates

Posted March 5, 2008 | 10:15 AM (EST)


There is no rule in the politics of Democratic Party conventions that says that the contender with the largest number of pledged delegates short of the total required for nomination should automatically, by dint of that achievement, be handed the party's designation. This argument is now being put forth by Senator Obama's campaign.


Such a contention is belied by the modern-day history of Democratic conventions. In 1912, the Democratic Speaker of the House of Representatives, Champ Clark, went to the Baltimore convention with the largest number of delegates, around 440, Woodrow Wilson was second with 324, trailed by a few others -- with two thirds of the convention vote required for nomination. Champ Clark was not then allowed to proclaim himself victorious simply because he led the pack. Rather the proceedings went through almost 50 ballots over a week's period that, after much maneuvering, resulted in Wilson accumulating enough delegates to secure the nomination.

In 1932, Franklin Roosevelt arrived at the Democratic Convention this time with the most delegates -- having won them through some primaries and some Democratic state organizations -- but still short of the requisite two-thirds majority. Despite this lead, the party did not hand him the nomination. He had to proceed through four ballots to achieve it.

….Read this omitted paragraph for another good example………

Now today some in the Obama campaign and in the media are dismissing the importance of Hillary Clinton's victories in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island as unimportant. For they argue that, by any careful analysis of the delegate selection process under the present Democratic Party proportional representation system, whatever delegate totals Senator Clinton wins through the end of this year's primary season, will not be able to overcome Senator Obama's current unsurpassable lead over Senator Clinton and therefore Obama will deserve the support of the so-called "super delegates" and should gain the nomination. But that is not how it works as we have seen in past Democratic conventions. A lead in pledged delegates is not enough. You still have to convince your party that you are the best nominee. That is what the next stage of this election is all about.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

1. Yup. But Some Are Too Closed Minded And Naive To Get That.

We've got a longgggggg way to go here.

[rodeodance]

2. Hillary will do it --that we can count on.

[rodeodance]

4. come back and give it a REC please:-)

[LulaMay]

65. Obama & supporters feel entitled, which is not a plus in a GE. She has been the Dem choice...

in every closed primary.

I don't want a candidate chosen by Repubs or even IN. The party ought to be able to choose it's own nominee.

I want a fighter, not somebody who reacts with anger at a loss because he feels the office somehow belongs to him (a reaction encouraged by the media and certain party leaders with agendas of their own)

It is that sense of entitlement pushed by him and his supporters down everyones throats, to the point of bullying people, that has become a turn off, as it should....


This is an ELECTION!

[RoadRage]

3. YES - YOU ARE RIGHT... BUT......

Hillary won't win the General Election if she gets the Dem. nomination this way. Obama supporters hate Clinton. Clinton supporters hate Obama. If the super delegates go AGAINST the will of the people - it's perfectly legal to do so. It's also perfectly suicidal for the entire party.

My ass will sit at home in November if that's how she gets there. If she wins fair & square - even with some mud slinging.. i'll vote for her.

But, Hillary can't win a general election if 70% of Obama supporters dispise her winning this way, and choose to stay home in protest. Childish? Yes.. but if the rolls were reversed, i don't for a second doubt that Clinton supporters would do the same thing.

[redqueen]

7. Yup.

I bet many progressives would love for the powerbrokers to do just that... go against the popular vote. They'd be helping to achieve Nader's dream of destroying something in order to try to build something better in its place.

[rodeodance]

9. then it will be up to Obama to unite his followers

[RoadRage]

15. If you're banking on a GE win for Clinton by having Obama do her

work for him after she punched him in the teeth for the past 3 months.. you need to keep on dreaming.

The truth is, it won't matter what Obama says - I make my own decisions.. and if she steals it this way, she won't win in November.

So, mathmatically - the decision becomes Obama because he mathmatically wins this, or McCain, because he is who wins by default in the scenario of the Super Delegates picking Clinton if she doesn't have the popular vote.

[rodeodance]

19. ha ha--BO was dishonest--she caught him. But he will do it for the party--for his future.

[democrattotheend]

26. Dishonest about what?

The Canada thing has been retracted, if that's what you are referring to.

[rodeodance]

40. RW canada is parsing words--in full damage control as Obama was yesterday.

[redqueen]

27. "it won't matter what Obama says - I make my own decisions"

Exactly.

Many neophytes that are energized by Obama's campaign aren't going to get in line for the DLC establishment just because Obama says they should. There are many reasons millions of people don't vote... this kind of backroom shit is one.

[RoadRage]

36. Exactly.. The Ohio Unions endorsed Obama..

and obviously those people also think for themselves, and a small majority voted for Clinton.

I'm happy to see that many voters make up their own minds - and don't blindly follow what their candidates say to do. Clinton supporters do it - and so will I!

[rodeodance]

47. Ohio Unions wrote Obama a letter a few days ago telling him to come clean on NAFTA

and he ignored him to his peril

[nonconformist]

76. Wait - isn't Obama a Democrat? Isn't the ultimate goal to get a Democrat in the White House?

See, this is the problem right here. Obama isn't the messiah. But you guys act like he can unite the entire country, but he can't unite his followers to vote Democrat?

[RoadRage]

78. He can't unite his voters to rally around

a person who embodies the type of politics that he himself dispises. The politics of old, mudslinging, win at all costs no matter what the outcome. The backroom dealings with Superdelegates to give the primary nomination to the person who didn't actually win the delegates or the popular vote.

No, he can't "unite" us - and frankly, I don't think he wants to. Hillary has her chance to unite us.. but she can't control herself or her ambition any better then her husband can. Win at all costs.. no matter who it destroys in the process. I can't win the math, but I can win the back-room politics, so i'll take that at any cost.

So, i'm going to have no problem making her pay the price - which is a loss in November.

[lojasmo]

58. I won't vote for a 'backroom deal' candidate.

If clinton wins a majority of PD and gets the nomination, she'll have my support.

If she twists arms and wins by SD with a minority of PD, she gets nothing from me.

[RoadRage]

79. You & I are voting the same way... and I think we have a lot of others with us.

[Sparkly]

61. I think the question is which "will of the people" if the popular vote is different

from the delegate total.

And, which delegate total -- with or without the superdelegates?

It would be nice if all those things lined up together.

[rodeodance]

80. let the process play itselfs out them instead of so many Obamafolk demanding she step down!

[Horse with no Name]

5. I have seen an onslaught here this am of obamafans who want US to vote for their candidate

yet state they won't vote for Hillary.
Sounds like they want it all...and they want it NOW.
Obama lost his momentum yesterday, I am sure their worst fear this morning is that he won't regain it.
So now they are going to threaten.

[AX10]

8. As you said!

:thumbsup:

[redqueen]

11. Sorry, but the Obama campaign predicted these losses months ago.

Any "fear" you perceive is... well I don't know where that's coming from.

[Horse with no Name]

17. with all due respect redqueen

There are MANY political neophytes here that do NOT understand this process. There is fear in many of them this morning---take a look around.
This round of battles is over...but the war has just begun.

[redqueen]

22. What does it matter what people here feel?

:shrug:

I know this round is over... I also know Obama's campaign seems to know exactly what they're doing. Hillary's, on the other hand, seems to be flailing around desperately.

I mean come on... offering the candidate with more wins & more delegates a VP spot? Seriously? How is that not immediately recognized as the desperate (and just silly) attempt that it is?

[RoadRage]

12. That's not true..

I'll vote for Hillary if she wins the popular vote & the most delegates (not super delegates). If she does not, yet wiggles her way into this nomination because of back-room politicing.. i won't vote for her. But you don't need to worry about just me.. you need to worry about the millions of others who feel the same way.

[rodeodance]

43. yes, the MO is lost for Obama at this moment in history

[Radical Activist]

6. Hillary would be just like Humphrey in 68.

I've been saying that for a year. Yes, Hillary can be nominated against the will of the voters. It will also split the party and guarantee a loss in November.

[rodeodance]

14. You are buying into RW slime.

[RoadRage]

18. Nope.. i'm buying into my OWN motives if this scenario plays out..

Frankly, the republicans (minus Limbaugh to a limited extent) have had nothing to do with this.

[Radical Activist]

20. Nope. Just common sense.

Nominating a pro-war conservative like Hillary will also guarantee Nader or some other third party candidate gets at least 5% of the vote. Add in the black and young voters who will stay home. She's a sure loser in November.

[rodeodance]

23. "comon sense"---ha ha--that is out the door in this primary (aka conventional wisdon)

[LulaMay]

55. Yes. It's amazing how many people claim it isn't important to win key states! HRC is DEMS choice..

She has won the primaries where only Dem's voted. He has won delegates by getting added voted from Repubs and conservative IN.

That does not represent the Democratic party.

[mirrera]

50. No he is not! It is the reality on the street. This blindness is scary.

People who say Obama supporters are cultish, I see a tone deafness and willful blindness among some Hillary Supporters and hillary herself. She is DISPISED by the far right stupids. I mean irrationally hated. In my own life I only know well a very few Republicans and the hatred is 100% no talking to them. It is like how we feel about Bush but with no facts just the way they like it. hillary is the GOP's ONLY chance.

[LittleClarkie]

10. Well, everything Hillary lost was "unimportant" so I guess there's some tat for that tit

Both sides do the same thing.

But didn't she sort of need to win bigger in Texas to get a bigger percentage of delegates?

[rodeodance]

13. I think the historical examples--read all- in this piece say differently

[katty]

16. it is the process and some have already broken their

pledge to Hillary in support of Obama-that is how it works.

[rodeodance]

21. as you say--they can break their pledge and go back to Hillary--thats how it works

[katty]

24. yes, my point is that a pledge can be broken either way

[rodeodance]

28. yes. that is exactly what I said. I am glad you agree.

[katty]

34. yup

[rodeodance]

45. :-)

[TheDoorbellRang]

25. I'm trying to follow these examples' logic

In 1932, Franklin Roosevelt arrived at the Democratic Convention this time with the most delegates... and went on to become president.

Finally in the 1952 Democratic race, Senator Estes Kefauver ... entered the Chicago convention with a lead of 257 votes, with four other contenders trailing behind, including Adlai Stevenson. ... ultimately Stevenson grabbed the designation from Kefauver on the third ballot -- all of this, despite his failure to contest a single primary, with no accumulated Democratic votes compared to those of Kefauver's, and in spite of his late entry into the race. But the party thought he would be the better nominee.

Ah, yes. President Stephenson, how well we all remember him...oh, wait...

Why are we not supposed to go with the people's choice again?

[Nederland]

29. Ancient History

You have to go back to 1952 to come up with an example, and a bad one at that?

Nice try.

[rodeodance]

38. Hillary is smart--she will do well. And it is not wise to diss history

[LulaMay]

52. Ronald Reagan came to the convention behind Ford. Obama is not ENTITLED

[Nederland]

81. Of course he's not entitled

The person with the most delegates should win. It's called the Democratic Party for a reason.

[oasis]

30. Let the truth be told. Thank you. k&r

[OzarkDem]

31. Obama reminds me of Bush

The ease with which he dispatches lies and relies on the ignorance of his supporters to advance his agenda.

We've had enough of Bush, we don't need 4 more years of someone who operates the same way.

[weezy2736]

51. Which lies? n/t

[MojoMojoMojo]

64. "No Lobby Pac money"

He misrepresents his source of campaign financing.
"No Lobby or Pac money" is meant to deceive the public into believing he has no corporate influence,when in fact he does take lobby and Pac money ,and takes as much corporate money as Hillary.

[weezy2736]

67. Is that the only one?

That's not all that impressive, really, every candidate ever has taken money wherever they can get it. Yes, it is shitty stance, but HRC isn't the perfect candidate, either.

[MojoMojoMojo]

71. For me its a major deal breaker ,as I find that the most important issue in politics

Thats why I admire Kucinich and Nader.
Hillary and Obama both take corporate money.
But to pretend like you have no corporate influence is just evil.

[weezy2736]

72. I wish that it was possible for Dennis to make it

but.... yeah. People more or less suck.

[OzarkDem]

82. Clinton's health care plan

the lies about requiring people to buy insurance they can't afford from private insurance companies.

[weezy2736]

83. How exactly does her plan compensate for that?

I'll be honest, healthcare was at about #8 on my priorities, so I'm not that informed as to her plan.

[long_green]

32. If that's the case, why raise and spend all this money?

I'm not knocking everything about the old system(s) of selecting nominees, but if voting does not matter in the process, why have it at all? No question the party needs to reform some of its nominating practices.
Of course, everyone is too chicken to initiate my first reform: unseat the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary and start rotating the opening slots among all 50 states.

[rodeodance]

41. cause one has to "get" to Denver before the process starts.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

33. Keep telling yourself that.

:rofl:

[CyberPieHole]

35. Kick and rec for another great post from rodeodance...

Let's hope Senator Clinton keeps getting her message across and that Obama is subjected to the scrutiny (by the MSM) that should have been there all along.

:kick:

[rodeodance]

39. thanks--hope some Obamakids settle down (wishful thinking I know)

[totodeinhere]

37. Translation:

It doesn't matter what happens in the primaries and caucuses. Clinton should get the nomination anyway. So why did we even have primaries and caucuses? You quoted some ancient history, but times have changed.
The Dem party is supposed to be the people's party, not the party of back room deals. The smoke filled room went out a long time ago.

(Edited for typo.)

[MojoMojoMojo]

66. " not the party of back room deals"

Do you mean like an Obama Caucus team

[totodeinhere]

70. No, the caucuses are held in the open for all to see. Any Dem can attend.

[npincus]

42. Would pledged delegates be a myth if HRC were leading in them?

Or, is that what you call 'tweaking' election results for your candidate? Perhaps the Supremes will help HRC in the way they helped Chimpy in 2000.

[rodeodance]

44. the process is their for all who show up in Denver--

[aquarius dawning]

49. Yes. Obama's people would make it abundantly clear without a doubt.

if the situation were reversed.

[npincus]

62. The Obama campaign has more honor

they have certainly run a more dignified campaign. But after last night, i suspect the party's over.

[RiverStone]

46. If either the SD's or regular delegates...

...go against the will of the popular vote:

We will lose the GE.

We may lose our majorities on The Hill.

And 1/3 of voting Dems would walk away from the party in disgust.

Too many remember how the SCOTUS stole the 2000 election from Gore when he had a 1/2 million vote lead in the popular vote; currently, Obama leads nationally by 600K.

I can't fathom the party leaders letting this happen. It could derail our party from power for another decade - or longer. The people MUST decide the nominee - not a few elite party players!

And BTW, every WIN is important! Hillary's were last night as were Obama's prior 12. No candidate or pundit should dismiss or ignore any state.

[rodeodance]

59. well those little sour grapes best get some sunshine then. and stop whining.

[RiverStone]

69. I'd Love to get some sunshine --- up to 63ish in rural WA state today!

And I will be hiking later today :hi:

But rodeo, I assure you this is not sour grapes. Your a dedicated Clinton fan - that's cool - and if she wins fair and square, she has my vote!

But if she wins by other means that does not reflect the popular vote, there will be a mass exodus. Many, many more folks other then I have stated the same thing. Our challenge as a party is to prevent a convention fight - that happens, and the Dem nominee won't win - be it Hillary or Barack.

Just being realistic.

[LulaMay]

48. Thanks 4 posting this! Last night was a HUGE victory, GO HILLARY!

[jefferson_dem]

54. Yay! 7-12 net gain in delegates for Hillary.

Only 130(ish) to go. Good luck.

[rodeodance]

57. BO lost his MOJoe last night. good luck

[totodeinhere]

60. She probably didn't even gain that much.

Final results are not in yet. Your estimate is Clinton's best case scenario.

[LulaMay]

68. Read the OP. A slim delegate lead is not a win. She has key states, the DEM vote. On to convention!

He is not entitled! He has not proven himself at all because he hasn't won the crucial contests. Winning red states we have no hope of carrying, like Nebraska, doesn't mean much in the final analysis. Winning Ohio and FL DOES.

[jefferson_dem]

74. What's going to happen at the convention. Just say it.

You want the largely unelected, unaccountable establishment supers to overturn the will of rank-in-file Democratsin order to install Hillary as the nominee. Just say it.

...Best be prepared to deal with major blowback.

[rodeodance]

63. you betcha!1

[jefferson_dem]

53. "The process"? Cute.

You'll know what "the process" really looks like if the establishment Supers try to leverage Hillary toward the nomination against the will of the rank-in-file Democratic voters and caucusers.

[rodeodance]

56. Hillary is a smart woman---you will be foolish to underestimate that fact.

[LulaMay]

73. They keep underestimating her, and she keeps winning....

Last night when she was giving her speech, my husband got this look in his eyes and said "Oh my god, she's going to be President!"

He has been my bedrock through all this, and keeps telling me she is going to win, not to give up, not to worry....keep fighting.

It made me smile.

I'm married to a great guy.

and my sons and future daughter-in-law were all jumping up and down :)

Even the dog is wearing a Hillary scarf. haha

[not_too_L8]

75. Yet she continues to lose the supers

[Tom Rinaldo]

77. The reversal of Obama's momentum hasn't hit the national polls yet

If Hillary has a resounding victory over Obama in Pennsylvania, if she closes out the primary season strong, if the national polls swing toward Hillary over Obama convincingly, if polls show her matching up better against McCain stronger in key battleground states than Obama, and if both candidates are far short of the majority of delegates needed to win prior to dealing with Florida and Michigan and the Super Delagates all weighing in, Hillary Clinton will be our nominee and the reasons for it will be solid ones.