Here's a first, at least recently... Clinton leading Obama vs. McCain

Kurt_and_Hunter

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Wed Mar-05-08 01:01 PM
Original message

Here's a first, at least recently... Clinton leading Obama vs. McCain

Edited on Wed Mar-05-08 01:26 PM by Kurt_and_Hunter

This polling does NOT include any post-Ohio/Texas polling, so two days from now it seems likely that Clinton will have a lead outside the margin of error among Dems and Dem-leaners, and will reach the point of beating McCain in this tracking poll while Obama trails McCain. The margins are close, and polls are just polls, but the psychology is powerful. This is the sort of thing that will freeze super-delegates for a while.

Prior to the past three days, Clinton had trailed Obama every single day for three weeks (edit: Today's number is Clinton 48%, Obama 43%.). Clinton has regained a solid lead (twelve percentage points) among women nationwide. That margin that expands to twenty points among white women. Yesterday�s victories for Clinton mean there is a growing likelihood that the campaign could stretch on in to the summer without a winner. Rasmussen Reports will be polling the Democratic Primary Race in Mississippi, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and other states this week.

It is important to note that while Clinton had a very good day on Tuesday, Rasmussen Markets data still shows Obama with a 71.9% chance of winning the Democratic nomination. That�s down from a recent high of 87%.

Looking to the general election, John McCain has a slight lead over both Democrats. McCain now leads Obama 48% to 43% and Clinton 46% to 45% (see recent daily results). A Rasmussen Reports video suggests that the Clinton victories in Texas and Ohio are good news for John McCain. In Washington State, McCain leads Clinton and is essentially even with Obama. The Governor�s race in Washington is also a dead-heat.

Nationally, McCain is viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 45%. Obama�s numbers have slipped a bit recently and he is now viewed favorably by 50% of likely voters nationwide, unfavorably by 48%. Clinton earns positive reviews from 49% of Likely Voters nationwide and negative assessments from 50% (see recent daily results).

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history

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ADDED ON EDIT: Gallup just confirmed the Rasmussen move. Again, this polling does not yet include any bump from Ohio/Texas:

"For the first time in nearly a month, Hillary Clinton outpolls Barack Obama in national Democratic preferences, 48% to 44%. The latest three-day average primarily reflects Democratic attitudes before the outcomes of Tuesday night's primaries were known. National Democratic preferences began to shift in Clinton's favor on Sunday, gained momentum on Monday, and remained favorable to her on Tuesday. Any impact her success in Tuesday night's elections may have on national preferences will be reflected in tomorrow's Gallup Poll Daily election tracking report."

http://www.gallup.com/poll/104788/Gallup-Daily-Clinton-48-Obama-44.aspx