Slate Delegate Counter (try it!).

[ozone_man]

http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/

Using approximate March 4 results, and estimating percentages of remaining primaries, I get:

Delegates ..........................................Obama Clinton

Subtotal, Ohio (Mar. 4) through Puerto Rico..487 494
Pledged delegates to date (Mar. 3)...........1,192 1,036
Total pledged delegates (by convention)....1,679 1,530

Obama has the pledged delegate lead, but will need at least 346 superdelegates to reach 2,025.

So, his lead in pledged delegates of approximately 150 does not change significantly, barring some unusual turn of political events.

There are 796 superdelegates, so in order to deny Obama the win, they would have to split 345/451 for Obama/Clinton. In other words, they would have to go against the will of the voting public. I doubt this would happen to that extent.

If the SD’s divide proportionately according to pledged delegate count, then Obama would retain or increase his total delegate count. Let’s say they split evenly, especially considering that Hillary already enjoys a lead in SD’s. So, if they split evenly, each getting 398 SD’s, then this would give Obama 2077 total delegates to Hillary’s 1928. Obama exceeds the necessary 2,025 number by 52 delegates.

Try running your own numbers, maybe a worst case example, and/or a variation in superdelegate split at convention. Include rationale for why will they split that way.