Pew Research: 20% of white Dems would vote for McCain if....

[featherman]

"Overall, 20% of white Democratic voters say they would vote for McCain if Obama is the Democratic nominee. That is twice the percentage of white Democrats who say they would support McCain in a Clinton-McCain matchup. Older Democrats (ages 65 and older), lower-income and less educated Democrats also would support McCain at higher levels if Obama rather than Clinton is the party's nominee."

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/750/obama-lead-problems

[Wayjose]

1. What if McPain picks Mike Steele for VP?

[ingac70]

7. Then the Bubbas will just stay home on election day.n/t

[loveable liberal]

2. Peeyooo!!! ha ha ha!!!

[xultar]

3. Dixicrats' still fuckin kickin. I see those mutharuckas whenever I leave my house.

They are like cock-a-roaches minus the teeth. Cuz you know the dixicrats ain't got no fuckin teef.

[groovedaddy]

4. My guess is that most of that 20% is in the South. n.t

[Bok_Tukalo]

8. My guess it that you are wrong

<OPE>

[9119495]

10. And neither of our candidates are going to carry the south so

who cares. I think it says something about regions, not about the nation.

[Alamom]

13. Nationwide sample of 1,508 adults, 18 years of age or older,

Results for this survey are based on telephone interviews conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a nationwide sample of 1,508 adults, 18 years of age or older, from February 20-24, 2008.

[Medusa]

18. Oh yes, I'm sure you're right--the North and West just don't have bigots do they?

:eyes:

[Jacobin]

27. um OHIO, cough

I'm an older white southerner. I'm for Obama. I know a lot of other older white southerners who usually vote republican who have told me they would vote for Obama but would NEVER vote for Hillary.

I have no idea how this will all break in a general election, but among at least some older white people in the south, those who might be voicing whatever prejudice they might have, there is a stronger prejudice against this particular woman than this particular African American.

Who the hell knows how it will all end up. :shrug:

[supernova]

5. So 20% is the

Dem Party white flight # if Obama is at the top of the ticket?

Ugh.

[seabeyond]

6. how many dems wouldnt suport hillary because she is WOMAN

and dont tell me there are no sexist in the party only racists.... that is pure bullshit.

[underpants]

9. So glad the MSM asked this question so they could inject race directly into this

you are being manipulated

[Igel]

31. Race was injected long ago.

I was beseiged by Obama phone bankers and automated phone calls, all asking me to help "make history" by voting for Obama. Yesterday afternoon I breathed a sigh of relief when I realized all the phone calls asking for me to vote would stop; I voted last week, and the 5-10 phone calls/day were a bit much on Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and half of Tuesday. Four pro-Obama calls Monday night alone. Then at 6:40 pm on Tuesday, yet another "let's make history, go to the caucus and support Obama" phone call. (So I went out into Houston Rodeo traffic and spent 30 minutes sitting in traffic to go the 1/2 mile to my caucus location.)

What "history" what Obama himself referring to? Getting a 46-year-old elected? An Illinoian? Having Texas vote dem? Voting for a man? Electing a Xian for the first time?

"Making history" is a bad reason to vote for somebody. Yet there it is, the appeal, one founded mostly on race--not one actually pointed out any policy, just "making history"--an appeal crafted to avoid using the term. Manipulation?

[whatchamacallit]

11. We'll have to do it without them then

I don't believe in choosing a candidate to appeal to the soft-headed.

[Pirate Smile]

12. I wonder what the Black Democrats will do if the superdelegates overturn the pledge delegates to

chose Clinton? Hmmmm

[Stand and Fight]

15. This Black Democrat will still vote and so will the rest of my family.

We had this discussion last weekend at a gathering...

[jwirr]

17. That is a VERY good question. I think that the 20% w/males would

easily be replaced by new Black voters for Obama but if the Black vote drops because Hillary is pushed into the lead by superdeligates then the question is will they vote at all. I believe that many will stay home.

[gabeana]

14. This is what Obama is up against

He is a registered Republican, but he voted for Bill in '92 and '96, for Kerry in '04. He said he's never done worse than he's doing now and wants someone who can "bring down the costs of this goddamned healthcare." Really, though, he said he wishes he could vote for Bill a third time. Entrepreneurs have capitalized on this, selling buttons saying, Bring Back Peace and Prosperity and The Clintons over an image of the two.

If Hillary doesn't get the nomination, this man said, he'd not only vote for but work for McCain, "and I hate McCain."

"Why not Obama?"

"He's too inexperienced."

"And why else?" a woman down the bar asked.

"Because he's black."

"Thank you!" she replied.

More talk, a little heat, and the man exclaimed, "I'm not going to vote for the n@##er!"

Some in the bar seemed tensed; they were "undecided." The man goaded them; that's not what they had discussed the other day. He laughed. Another man from across the bar said he knew whom he wasn't voting for: "the n***er."

The first man continued to proclaim, "I love Hillary." He and a friend said she probably should take the VP spot if it were offered; even if Obama gets the nomination, "he's not going to make it." Later he apologized for saying "n***er"; "I'm not a racist."

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080317/wypijewski/2

I know sexism is the popular excuse here but racism is there just as strong
My edits on the "N" word

[backscatter712]

16. Yep, America's full of savages.

"I won't vote for a n@#$%r!" seems to still be a sentiment among the population.

[invictus]

23. America is much better than Europe.

No European country could even conceive having a non-white candidate for any important political office.

[invictus]

19. Are you saying Democrats should never have a non-white Presidential candidate if we want to win?

The racism of the Clinton campaign is just disgusting!

[dmallind]

25. So Pew research is the Clinton campaign?

It's a survey. It's a meaningful question. Do you expect there NOT to be surveys about race and voting intent with a non-white having the first serious shot at the presidency? Do you think the honest answer is that zero people would not vote for a minority (or a woman for that matter)? I mean it's a bit head-in-the-sand to assume that all voters, even all Democrats, are color blind and MLK's dream is achieved because everyone judges only on character and ability now isn't it?

The question I have is not some faux outrage over a completely absent Clinton factor here but how this lines up with the polls showing Obama doing very well against McCain and usually better than Clinton. Does that mean he'd be 10% more ahead if the bigoted Dems would vote for him (assuming 20% Dems = 10% voters)? Are respondents lying on that survey but telling the truth on this far more uncomfortable and challenging direct question about not voting for him because he's black? Wouldn't that make sense the other way round but not this way? How about Pew's own attitude surveys that shows less than half that amount of the WHOLE electorate would refuse to vote for a black candidate based on race? It just doesn't add up.

[Zorra]

20. Those same racists are misogynists that would not vote for a woman either.

I'll vote for whoever gets nominated, but you Hillary or Barack supporters are going to have to do all the work this time as far as I'm concerned. You made the choice to support a candidate with serious electability issues, and it is going to cost a whole lot of sweat, time, and money to get them elected.

Pragmatically speaking, people are so sick of republicans that any white male Democratic candidate without any serious felonies could win the GE. John Edwards would easily have won in a landslide over McCain.

Now we'll have to hope that Democrats don't once again snatch crushing defeat from the jaws of certain victory.

[anonymous171]

21. Desperately trying to negate the reality of clinton hate with rationalizations

[nolabels]

22. So........

What are the totals of an expanded vote by others that will be brought in by an Obama. Oh, that's right, forgot we just want people who look like republicans to be voting :shrug:

[RoadRage]

24. Does the article make any mention of HOW she wins the nomination?

My point is this:

Clinton wins the nomination by getting the most delegates (not supers) and over 50% of the popular vote... I WILL vote for her

Clinton wins the nomination by a combination of lawsuits in FL & MI, or by getting more super delegates to vote her way even if she doesn't have the majority of delegates and the popular vote.. I will NOT vote for her.

So, depending on the assumptions made in this poll, I think would determine the out come. Obama will most likely have the most delegates, so his number of 20% loss will probably stay the same. Clintons will fluxate quite a bit depending on the circumstances.

[dmallind]

28. The question is

How many people follow that closely or care that much? I mean I agree with your criteria although frankly I'll vote for any Dem who is running regardless, but how many people give a rat's about superdelegates? Not how many on DU but the 100 million likely voter pool. I mean I think I'm pretty well up on these things myself while not being an expert, but I only had a vague idea what superdelegates were six months ago, and I think few outside the truly hardcore or google experts could tell me what the breakdown of delegates and superdelegates was in, say, the 1992 nomination race. It would have very very little impact on the GE either way I suspect; it's certainly nothing like race or gender in impact, since it is not immediately apparent, or of any interest, to most voters like they are.

[RoadRage]

29. Believe me, if Clinton wins ONLY because of the Super-D's..

the HUGE GIANT headlines in the newspapers and online next day will scream "CLINTON STEALS DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION FROM OBAMA WITH BACKROOM DEALINGS WITH SUPER DELEGATES".

The Media has LOVED every second of this 'horse race' - and that is the headline they would cherish above all others.

I agree, right now - your common voter has no clue what a Super Delegate is.. but come August, if that's how she wins.. the media will make damn sure that every single voter is aware of how she got there.

Think back to 2000 - how much did you know about the electoral college? Me.. not much at all.. but the day after the election, i was fully versed, and FULLY pissed.

[PaDem]

26. and 18% of them would vote for McCain if Hillary was the nominee.........

you know how many people in the South are still registered Democrats that haven't voted for a Dem in a national election in a couple of decades?

[ramapo]

30. Obama will have a difficult time

It is hard to believe a black man can be elected president. I believe he does have a good chance in the GE.

I think Hillary will be crushed. Clinton fatigue and hatred is more endemic than racism.