Poll: Bush leads in Wisconsin (Bush: 47%, Kerry: 41%, Nader: 5%)

[TheStateChief]

http://www.jsonline.com/news/gen/apr04/219183.asp

Bush's lead was slightly smaller, 49%-45%, in a head-to-head match-up. Poll of 500 adults was taken March 23rd through the 31st.

[rockymountaindem]

1. Sample is too small.

Plus it was taken over too long a span to be accurate.

[TruthIsAll]

6. 500 polled is plenty for a state. But its wrong. Kerry MUST be ahead.

Wisconsin is a progressive, dem state. Gore won it and Kerry must be ahead by 53-47.

[MinnFats]

2. is that a pretty small sample? 500?

seems hard to believe, with all the manufacturing jobs that have taken a powder over there.....sheesh.

[rumguy]

3. Do you ever post positive news?

[TheStateChief]

9. Sure I do - but I also think it is important to stay informed

even if the news isn't always great. And these polls are by no means all bad news for Kerry. Bush's favorability has been slipping and most believe the country is on the wrong track. It's early, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't stay up-to-date with where things are going (or could go).

[DemMother]

14. If you want to be informed and get positive news, go to...

Emerging Democratic Majority. This guy knows his stuff--far better than most of us who only post the poll results (sometimes from very dubious pollsters--such as the right wing, Gingrich group whose poll some DUer was freaking out about a couple of weeks ago). Ruy Teixeira (demo majority) has an excellent analysis of the LAT poll from a couple of days ago.


"Los Angeles Times Poll Confirms Bush Difficulties
The newly-released Los Angeles Times (LAT) poll confirms the difficulties Bush is now facing in his re-election effort, including eroding support for his handling of the war on terror. The poll also presents a less-cheerful view of how Bush is faring against Kerry in election trial heats, when compared to the much-publicized Gallup poll I discussed on Tuesday.

Let's start with the horse race data. The LAT poll, which has a larger sample size (N=1,616) than the Gallup poll and was conducted more recently (March 27-30), finds Kerry ahead 49-46 among RVs. The Gallup poll, in contrast, had exactly the reverse result--Bush ahead of Kerry by 49-46."


Read the rest--it's very interesting, especially the stuff about the moderates.


<http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising >

[4morewars]

4. who are these people???

i don't get it, how can anyone think this admin is doing a good job and deserves 4 more years???:wtf:

[ochazuke]

5. You gotta give Bush his due

If all the crap that has come down on shrub this past week or two alone had hit a Democratic president, that Democrat would be lucky to hold 40% approval, and his chances of re-election in the media would be put at zero.

[brainoverload]

11. who gets the due?

You have to give a compliant media who report bushco news briefings as if they were fact their due. You've got to give Right-wing church preachers who literally train their flock to view logic as the work of the Devil their due. You've got to give an advertising industry that has numbed a majority of the population into believing anything thrown at them in commercial form their due. The only due Bush gets is for exploiting the weaknesses a coalition of whacked-out Americans that sadly, at times, forms a majority of the voting public.

[ochazuke]

12. Yeah, all Bush does is tap into America's Reptilian Brain

But that's dynamite, like the key to the city, man! It's like the only thing better than selling that strong-leader cowboy shit would be for bush to have ESP-type mind control.

Maybe those Stepford jokes about his wife have a basis in truth.

[zulchzulu]

7. Lots of negative Bush ads are airing in WI

Mostly unanswered...

[Itchinjim]

8. Friggin' Cheeseheads

Friggin' Cheeseheads


Go Bears.

[JI7]

10. Wisconsin was VERY close in 2000

we have to remember that not all the gore states in 2000 should be taken for granted as Kerry's in 04. we have to still work hard, very hard to win many of them. i remember it wasn't just florida we had to wait for when it came to recounts but a few other states which were close and therefore required a recount.

[fujiyama]

13. Very true

I remember a poll posted last week which had Kerry ahead by three.

Either way, it's obvious that the negative ads are having some effect.

It's unfortunate that WI, MN, and IA, are toss ups. These are states we should have in our column.

BTW, anyone have a recent poll for Fiengold? I suppose there might be some in the state that would be inclined to vote for him but not vote for Kerry in the GE? Then again Fiengold votes more according with the wishes of his state on issues like gun control.

Oh well, it'll go up and down. This was a state won by Gore by a margin of less than 1%.

[Leilani]

18. That's right.

Wasn't the Gore win in New Mexico by several hundred votes?

We can't take the Gore states for granted.

[Bombtrack]

15. A "Badger" poll. Hmm. Could it be spot on? Yeah. Is that likely, no

the last poll gave Kerry a 3 point lead. It was by an ARG poll, which has had an outstanding record so far in the political (primary) season
I'd put this as a slight lean for Kerry on the cusp of tossup. In the same place as PA.

[jsw_81]

16. I'll say it again: Fuck Ralph Nader

[loveable liberal]

17. polls. theres only one that counts

there is plenty of time before the election, kerry has to go for the throat on the environment, the criminals in the bush white house, the military service record and the decimation of the middle class during bushs' stint. believe me, bush is a one timer just like his old man. thats without even bringing up any of the lies about iraq and 9/11.

[Piperay]

19. It's a worthless poll if

they are only polling voting age people instead of LIKELY voters. LIKELY voters polled are the only polls that are at all an indication of how close the candidates REALLY are.

[mobuto]

22. Registered voters

The problem with looking at likely voters is that the definition of a likely voter is purely subjective - the voter pool changes after every election and its just each pollster's guess who'll turn out for the next one. Registered voter counts tend to overcount Dems slightly, so you need to compensate a little, but at least you know what you're looking at.

I agree that this poll, which just looked at adults, is next-to-worthless. If you're not even registered to vote, who cares what you think?

[Finch]

20. Without Buchanan Bush would have won WI in 2000!

...its true and that is how close i could be again... F***!...The thing is that the state's elected offices are almost all held by Dem's, Feingold is from WI and the other senator is a Dem and the congressional delegation is 50/50... While in Iowa there's only really Vilsack and Harkin as prominant dems Kerry was up overBush by ten points (and i was thinking that IA and NM where likely Bush pickups)... the sample is small and is only comprised of "voting aged adults"... so it will probably not be spot on and so a MOE of 5% would be about right... in other words its tied and Bush has been spending more on ads in WI than Kerry has....

One last thing to say..... please oh please give some money to Kerry for all our sakes....

[Thrill]

21. Say what you want but

his negative ads are really working. Whether some of you want to continue being in denial is up to you. Kerry better start fighting back hard.

[ButterflyBlood]

27. actually

the only statewide offices in Iowa held by Republicans are Grassely's Senate seat and State Auditor. Everything else is Democratic.

[59millionmorons]

23. Adults

54% of Adults dont vote. This is the same problem that Gallup has they only polled adults and most adults don't vote. That why when you get polls that poll registered or likely voters Kerry ussually is up.

[WI_DEM]

24. Wisconsin will be close

it was close last time. Remember in the primary for Dem nomination, Kerry also got less support here than in many other states--38%. Bush has been on the tube non-stop here with his ads and they are having an impact in labeling Kerry as a tax and spender--without any answer from Kerry. This is also a strong anti-war bloc in this state who still have questions about Kerry's vote--especially with all the news coming out these days re-inforcing how bad the decision to go into Iraq was.

And yes, Nader will be a factor here if he is on ballot--but so will whoever the Green party nominates.

[yellowcanine]

25. None of this will mean squat if Iraq is still in the toilet in November

The election is going to turn on Bush's performance, not Kerry. Wisconsin will be close enough that turnout will determine the winner: messy Iraq = anti Bush voters participate and pro Bush voters stay home.

[Snivi Yllom]

26. BS BS BS BS BS

I have gotta stop reading poll numbers....need a drink to relax and put my mind of this baloney.