Who will win the brokered convention?

[Florida22ndDistrict]

Being that the large majority of you think it would be unfair to allow Florida and Michigan to have our voices recognized, who do you think will win the brokered convention? As it stands now, it is impossible for Clinton to win by pledged delegates alone. She needs upwards of 106% of all remaining pledged delegates. Obama is just as unlikely to win by pledged delegates alone. He needs upwards of 91% of all remaining pledged delegates. Short of a coronation by party officials or mass scale voter fraud this is coming down to a brokered convention. So who will it be?

Will Obama squeak by with a few more pledged delegates then Clinton? Will he fight to disenfranchise the voters of Florida and Michigan because it is not in his favor? Will the super delegates coronate him? Will Clinton ride her momentum of March 4th to close the gap with Obama and then demand Florida and Michigan be counted? Will she use her party influence to grab enough super delegates to make a difference? Will a compromise candidate (e.g. Al Gore) win in the second vote? What would you DU members be most pleased with?

[sueragingroz]

1. Check out this scenario

they allow the FL and MI delegates to sit but not to vote in the first round.

By the time the convention happens, Obama is down in the polls and the supers are split.

He doesn't get what he needs in the first round of voting.

Then it becomes a free for all and she wins it in the second round of voting.

[peacebird]

2. that scenario sucks... nothing personal sueragingroz - it's just too depressing

[dempartisan23]

3. mccain will win a brokered convention

[mattclearing]

6. dingdingdingding! n/t

[mattclearing]

5. Agreed.

[dempartisan23]

10. yep

i can hear mccain laughing all the way to the presidency all because we decided to divide ourselves, having been ordered to do so by rush fatbaugh.

[tekisui]

4. One of them will get 2025 on the first round of voting.

It won't be brokered.

[Florida22ndDistrict]

7. You would be OK with disenfranchising both Florida and Michigan...

You would be OK with disenfranchising both Florida and Michigan if it's close enough to be decided at the convention?

[tekisui]

8. It wouldn't decide it, first of all.

And second, they canNOT be seated as is. It would be unfair. The rules were laid out and agreed to before a vote was cast.

If they was to re-caucus, fine. If they want to divide FL and MI delegates at the same proportion that the rest of the delegates sit at, fine. If they want to split them down the middle, fine. BUt the are poison as they stand.

Besides, it would not change the outcome. If you added FL and MI, you change the magic number needed to win. From 2025 to 2208. And, the net gain would be less than 100 delegates for Hillary, not surpassing Obama's lead.

[Florida22ndDistrict]

11. It's not about surpassing anyones lead, its about counting the votes.

[tekisui]

13. That ship sailed.

The voters of FL and MI were screwed by the state leaders. They broke the rules, and the voters suffered the consequences.

They should re-caucus. It's the only fair way to determine.

[Gore1FL]

9. No brokered convention in 2008

The math doesn't support it.

[cali]

12. It doesn't matter. Anyone but a complete idiot knows that

A brokered convention will produce a mortally wounded nominee who will almost certainly lose to McCain.