Karma.

[joshcryer]

It's a bitch.

It looks like, in the unlikeliest of scenarios, we will indeed be going to a brokered convention. There's no way Hillary steps down now (completely blowing me away, I was almost 100% certain that Obama would win OH and TX handily).

So the convention will be brokered in some way or another. With a 50-100 delegate spread between neither candidate has a "pledged delegate mandate." I'm sorry, it just doesn't work that way. Convincing arguments will be made on both sides. Obama will argue "delegate majority." Hillary will argue "democratic popular vote majority."

It's going to be real folks.

[babylonsister]

1. Did Clinton win TX? nt

[joshcryer]

3. She will win TX given the trend. She was completely behind just a few days ago.

Completely and utterly. When she's behind in polls she always inches ahead.

[anigbrowl]

6. I'd hold off on that if I were you - swinging back to Obama now

as the city results come in. And don't forget, that's just primary results - no caucus details at all yet.

[babylonsister]

She was behind? I thought she had the Hispanic vote wrapped up.

I thought TX was in the bag.

[joshcryer]

17. No, no polls had Hillary "ahead" in TX. She was trending upwards.

But she was definitely behind. Just like on Super Tuesday.

[KaptBunnyPants]

14. You are clueless. Houston, Austin, and Dallas have barely reported in.

Those are Obama strongholds, he will easily win Texas. The Hispanic areas of Texas have already reported, her ace in the hole is gone.

[joshcryer]

20. Wanna bet?

[KaptBunnyPants]

42. Not now.

He only won Texas by a little. I was sure the big cities would have a bigger impact than that.

[joshcryer]

45. I know trends. :)

[Unsane]

24. OBAMA will win TX. Try a re-post.

[joshcryer]

36. Karma. It's a bitch.

[sueragingroz]

35. Looking at the female turnout and the fact that they broke for clinton

It's a natch that she will get the popular vote by a narrow margin in Texas... delegates - that's another story.

And the caucuses are a fiasco either way you cut them.

i gotta go to bed. i really want to stay up too....

[OhioChick]

7. No...

Still dead heat...

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#TX

[trueblue2007]

"democratic popular vote majority" wins in my boat

[Benhurst]

16. What? You want mere citizens to decide?

How tacky!

[cbayer]

2. Game on!

I hope they end up together on the ticket.

[joshcryer]

I'm personally contacting the Draft Gore Movement immediately.

:evilgrin:

[skooooo]

4. You're being a bit premature..

There are a lot of contests still before the primary, and a lot of things can happen. Really, even though she will have some wins tonight, she won't make up much in delegates. That's what counts in the end.

[joshcryer]

12. Delegates don't matter as much as you people make it out to be. A brokered convention is democratic.

They don't just go in and say "oh he has the delegate majority." Superdelegates would see the 100-150 delegate spread and not consider that a mandate whatsoever. When it's that close arguments will be tabled, people will vote on them. It'll be quite interesting.

Even Dean didn't think it'd come to this.

The MSM horse race happened. It's unbelievable! But that's what we deserve for how we behave to each other.

[skooooo]

21. We'll see..

I just don't think it will happen. And YES delegates do count - the rules don't change just because your candidate will lose because of them.

[joshcryer]

31. The DNC has no rules except the rules of voting.

And even those rules can change!

So yes, if you go to the DNC it is a committee, any votes can be tabled, and there will be quite intresting discussions going on.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

29. 10 delegates is not a mandate

100 delegates is a clear win.

[joshcryer]

30. No it's not! That's absurd.

100 delegates does not represent a clear majority. You could have 100 delegates but not have the popular vote.

[Beausoir]

5. I welcome it. About time we counted all the damn votes and had a real fight!

[lastliberalintexas]

8. Kucinich/Edwards- THE unity ticket

:)

[4_Legs_Good]

11. Sign me up!

[TransitJohn]

22. Wish I could nominate your reply.

Unity ticket indeed.

[4_Legs_Good]

9. Karma police

Arrest this man!

[DJ13]

10. We could lose the GE if it goes to a brokered convention

I dont believe Dean and the super delegates will want to risk that just so Hillary can continue playing a combination spoiler and McCain surrogate.

[joshcryer]

13. McCain is incapable of winning the Presidency.

It's just a joke of epic proportions.

[mathewsleep]

15. here's the real karma,

when hillary loses to mccain because he does the same thing to her that she's doing to a fellow democrat. that'll be real karma.
mccain wins the 3am debate.

[nomorewhopper]

18. clinton does NOT have the popular vote

[joshcryer]

19. She has the popular vote of Democratic voters.

She does not have the popular vote of Independent and Republican voters.

[tabasco]

26. Link for that ?

Thanks.

[KittyWampus]

27. she didn't even show up in a large number of states. She abandoned multiple states and told their

voters that they don't count.

That isn't democracy.

[DearAbby]

23. Hillary has the big MO to come from a 15% lead

to barely eek out a win..and still lose in total delegate counts...Congrats :)

[joshcryer]

25. She never had a lead in any credible poll.

Any poll made 2 weeks out put her as done. I thought she was done. I was spouting how she was done for two weeks. Look at my post history. I am very surprised by these results.

[lapfog_1]

28. Ok, I'll play along...

Lets say that Obama shows up with enough pledged and supers to have a lead.

Let's say Hillary makes the case that she wins with only Democrats.

What do you expect to happen? What would be the fair thing?

Turn to a third candidate? One that has NO in place campaign structure, no money, and not a lot of time to try to beat McCain?

That might have worked in a previous age, but I don't see it working today.

I know you want Hillary to walk away with the nomination, just as I want Obama to get it. But how to decide? Bribe the delegates? Is that what we will be down to... who can promise the best federal job or contract?

Also, in the time between now and the convention, who will counter the Repukes charges? Right now it looks like a 2 on 1 fight, with Hillary siding with McCain against Obama. Is this what we want for the next 7 weeks or longer?

Ok, it goes to the convention... what then? and will either side accept losing at that point? Would either candidate accept the VP slot? Personally, I don't think so.

What's the way forward?

[joshcryer]

32. Al Gore, unless Hillary or Obama step down. Otherwise there will be a vote on one of the two.

And it'll be fine. I still think Obama will win, mind you, but I think this is all so very exciting from a political perspective!

[lapfog_1]

38. Exciting, but not good for the Democrats... and, in my mind,

not good for the nation.

There are so many looming crises that must be addressed, and they won't be by a Republican.

Global Warming.
Resource depletion.
Energy.
Health Care.

(well, you know the list... I won't repeat it all now).

Yeah, Al Gore. Or even a John Edwards.

But for them to get the nomination, it would happen at the convention.

That means we have a nominee on Aug 28th... 2 months before the GE. 9 weeks.

9 weeks to stitch together a campaign staff, craft a message, RAISE MONEY, build a new ground organization, AND do the other things that a candidate must do (talk shows, debates, etc).

Sure, some could be cobbled together from the two current candidates... but I bet of lot of campaign volunteers decide they have other things to do with their lives after THEIR candidate is gone. But the money thing... that's a killer.

So it could be the compromise candidate... but that's not a great thing, really.

At this point, I don't care who the nominee is (if neither drops out between now and August)... neither will be able to beat McCain after this fight. Both will be wiped out. People are already noticing that both Hillary and Obama seem tired and worn down... Stump speeches are getting a little stale. A tired and worn out candidate is not going to beat McCain, even if he is older than dirt.

[tinrobot]

33. This is where Edwards comes in...

He's got 26 of those delegates.

[joshcryer]

34. Very true! Edwards could decide it. That's crazy.

[PoliticalOne65]

37. Edwards delegates

If it goes to a brokered convention his delegates are now the power brokers. How much does it cost to buy an Edwards delegate?

[Mezzo]

39. BO got p'wned. Time for him to do the right thing and step down. nt

[Avalux]

41. Hardly. Hillary was up +20 in Texas 2 weeks ago. She gained 1 delegate last night.

Nothing has changed except that her negative campaign will continue until the Democratic Party is ripped apart.

[joshcryer]

44. Link for that? That's not true as far as I'm aware. She was up about a month out.

But after Feb 5th her lead dwindled instantly.

[cali]

40. This has nothing to do with Karma. It's clear you don't have a clue

as to what Karma is- or isn't.

[joshcryer]

43. Feel free to enlighten me.