Obama to win Texas, Vermont; Hillary takes Ohio, Rhode Island

[Obamaniac]

Obama had a HUGE 13 point lead in the early vote which represents about 30% of the total vote. Many of the polls that predicted a late Clinton "surge" in Texas predicated the assumption on Hillary winning the early vote.

Exit polls showed it either tied or Obama with a slight lead. Even with a slight Hillary lead, it won't be enough to overcome Obama's HUGE early strength.

File this under: Obama takes Texas.

He'll also win the caucuses tonight. He'll come away with a huge delegate victory over Hillary in Texas. Will probably come away from the four contests tonight with the popular vote win and the delegate win.

Congrats Barack. Another day, another victory.

[RL3AO]

1. I agree.

[Unsane]

2. I am unsure how Clinton can make a viable argument to continue.

If she can't even win more delegates tonight.

[dchill]

9. She wins the "big" states.

Move goal posts.

[NightWatcher]

12. rhode island= big?

[loveangelc]

3. The difference is only about 5% now. that said, i dont think austin or houston are reporting yet.

[Obamaniac]

Austin, Houston and Dallas have not reported...

Hillary will lose Texas. Probably by a similar margin to what she won in California. The dynamics are very similar.

Obama had all the momentum going in. Polls showed it tied. Of those who voted that day, Obama and Hillary tied. But Hillary had a huge lead in early votes. That was enough to give her the state.

The same is true in Texas. The rural states are reporting first, those are the Clinton states. Like I wrote: Austin, Houston and Dallas have not reported.

[mistertrickster]

47. Sorry, can you back up a little here? The MSMedia has already called Texas for Clinton.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23480254/

I'm an Obama fan . . . but how do you get a win in Texas for Obama?

(On edit--I meant to reply to Original Message)

[mistertrickster]

52. WTF, are the date and time stamps messed up or something?

I feel like I'm in a time warp . . . wait a minute, it's GMT, isn't it?

So these are posts from late last night.

Okay . . . (in an Emily Latilla voice) "never mind."

[tekisui]

57. Hillary won the Primary 51/48. Obama is taking the TX caucus.

In the end, he'll net more delegates from TX, hence a WIN!

[Georgie_92]

4. Yup think so too

GOBAMA

[tandem5]

5. there's only a 4 point gap at 7% now nt

[Obamaniac]

16. Austin, Houston and Dallas have not reported...

nt

[Johnny__Motown]

6. Don't forget about the Texan Caucus, there are 2 contests in Texas tonight

Obama should net more delegates than Clinton tonight (again)

[Justyce]

7. Texas is 51-48 right now according to CNN's site... He had the

early votes, but now that they're counting tonight's votes, it's getting very close. Too early to tell yet....

[Renew Deal]

13. They didn't add El Paso early votes until just now.

34K-14K for Hillary. +20K

It was deceiving.

[LisaL]

14. Yes, Hillary is pulling up in TX.

[Obamaniac]

17. Austin, Houston and Dallas have not reported...

nt

[Dinger]

22. Yes, Definitely Too Early

[littlebit]

8. It's down to 3 now

it's not over yet.

[Obamaniac]

18. Austin, Houston and Dallas have not reported...

nt

[demo dutch]

26. I don't think that's true. I think Dallas for example has already reported

[Liberal In Texas]

39. Dallas right now is only reporting about 5%.

http://enr2.clarityelections.com/Default.aspx?page=S&c=dallas&eid=330

At 9:20 p.m. CST.

And THAT is 65% Obama, 35% Clinton.

[William769]

10. DEWEY WINS!

:rofl:

You better check your number again, and where the votes have not come in yet. OOPS.

[Obamaniac]

29. Austin, Houston and Dallas have not reported...

William must you always play the court jester?

[William769]

32. And neither have the heavy Latinos area.

And as for the court jester, you win that one hands down.

On edit: BTW it's now 50% to 48%. :wow:

[William769]

40. ...

[readmoreoften]

11. Shouldn't you be posting in the Obama supporter thread.

Fucking echo chamber, you people are.

[Dinger]

15. Obama+ 51%, Clinton = 48%. Not SO Fast Buddy!

Let's let this run its course.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#TX

[Obamaniac]

19. Austin, Houston and Dallas have not reported...

People don't seem to know how to add.

If Obama won the early vote by 13%, that means Hillary has to win by 6.5% to even tie him.

The rural counties are always the first to report. That's why Hillary's numbers are artificially high everywhere. The major cities in Texas haven't reported, this is where the African Americans are and a lot of Obama's support (colleges in Austin, high tech workers, etc.) is situated. When those numbers come in, he'll overtake her and stay on top.

My prediction is Hillary wins Ohio by 4%, she'll win Rhode Island by 5% and will lose Texas and Vermont.

[demo dutch]

27. Not in TX, big cities like Houston go first. It's the reverse

[Obamaniac]

30. Not today they didn't

Austin hasn't reported, most of the numbers that have come in are from the rural areas.

It won't matter. Hillary will lose Texas. I explained why in my OP. She can't overcome a 13% deficit.

[demo dutch]

33. Dallas has already reported and Houston in the process

[demo dutch]

36. Not true Austin is reporting at this very moment

[juajen]

31. Please explain why, since large cities have more votes to count.

I thought I saw this on CNN earlier, but didn't catch why the big cities go first.

[demo dutch]

34. I have no idea! Everything is different in TX

[Teaser]

21. She'll close and pass, and he'll reclose and...

then what happens, who knows?

[BuyingThyme]

20. 13/30? Where'd you get that?

I see 3/8 right now.

[RememberWellstone]

23. Bumped

So that when Hillary takes Texas I will come back here for the maniac.

[Oleladylib]

24. SHE will win the popular vote..and there we have it again..

If they can't run together...forget the whole shabang!

[Obamaniac]

28. Negative

For the night, Obama will win the popular vote (his margin of victory will be larger in Texas than hers is in Ohio --- Texas is also the larger of the two states). He'll also win more delegates than her.

She did better, i'll give her that, but she still lost today. No amount of spin will change that.

[William769]

35. Please explain how she lost Texas. This ought to be interesting.

:rofl:

[Beregond2]

25. Results

Yes, this certainly appears to be the case. I can't understand this whole "momentum" arguement. Numbers don't lie. She cannot possibly win the nomination now.

[nomorewhopper]

37. HILLARY UP HUGE IN RHODE ISLAND WITH 49% REPORTING

61% - 38%

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21229230

[TexasLady]

38. thatd be right!

obama already TOOK texas!! IMHO. :D

[William769]

41. Looks like you are wrong once again.

:rofl:

I hope your day job isn't predictions.

[mculator]

42. Refer to your name

[RememberWellstone]

43. Ooooops!

The only victory was Vermont and he did'nt fall off the satge as he spoke about hope and change for the 5,000th time. So, you were wrong!!!

[truebrit71]

45. Who got the most votes and delegates out of TX...you might want to chekc that gloat at the door...

...you are WRONG!!!

[rcsl1998]

50. Clinton Got The Most Votes Out Of TX - Like Gore Got The Most Votes In 2000...

[truebrit71]

51. Check the new figures coming in that include the caucuses..

....

[rcsl1998]

55. You Mean The People Who Are Voting Twice?

You can only vote in the caucus by voting in the primary - So the actual candidate vote total is truely only via your primary. The caucus is an additional phase of the delegate allocation via some of the same people...

[rcsl1998]

44. K&R

[IndyOp]

46. Obama wins 100 Texas delegates; Clinton 93. You were right! (n/t)

[Horse with no Name]

48. But it isn't over yet and no delegates until June

IF Obama can hold on to his delegates by the state convention...THEN he will have those delegates awarded.
Counting chickens before they hatch is NEVER a good thing.

[IndyOp]

58. In Indiana, our county delegates go the the state convention where they elect national delegates...

So that seems to be the same as Texas. Yes?

In Indiana it would be extremely unusual for someone elected by their county to vote against the results of their county primary vote.

You are saying that delegates can switch in Texas. How often has this happened in past? How often has this occurred to such an extent that it impacted the results of the election in past?

[rodeodance]

53. Looky here--the Wed am tells all of America who won!!--all over america

Forum Name Hillary Clinton Supporters Group
Topic subject Robbedvote: In celebration - Hillary suppporters: some page ones I liked today - enjoy:
Topic URL http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=334x3981#3981
3981, Robbedvote: In celebration - Hillary suppporters: some page ones I liked today - enjoy:
Posted by rodeodance on Wed Mar-05-08 09:36 AM

Please go out there and give this a REC.
Wonderful photos and lots of work by Robbedvoter who is a tireless Hillary Supporter.

ps:--She had posted this in gd-p. But i had recalled an email from her saying she can post here in Hillary Supporters group.
Anyway--I did a Big boooo booooo. Instead of posting this message here. I reposted in gd-p. What a muck-up on my part. but enjoy.



Forum Name General Discussion: Primaries
Topic subject In celebration - Hillary suppporters: some page ones I liked today - enjoy:
Topic URL http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4902136#4902136
4902136, In celebration - Hillary suppporters: some page ones I liked today - enjoy:
Posted by robbedvoter on Wed Mar-05-08 08:28 AM


Red Eye Illinois


Rocky Mountains News


San Diego Union Tribune


St Petersburg Fla

I didn't intend to be too ostentatious by putting lots of them - but each negative comment made me add another one - check them in the thread.
So, thanks for playing. I am happy today - and intend to post that way.

[depakid]

49. Face it -your candidate LOST the primary (which is where most people vote)

Caucuses are archaic processes that typically DO NOT reflect the nature of the electorate at large. Instead, they favor those with the most enthusiasm- which doesn't translate into the most support.

[Hawkeye-X]

54. Woot.

http://tinypic.com/flek.php?f=2qxnifp&s=2

[dailykoff]

56. So Hillyary's comeback was just another Clinton lie.

Why am I not surprised.