Congratulations Hillary on winning Rhode Island

[Maribelle]

:bounce:

[goldcanyonaz]

1. Yay!!

[juajen]

2. Go, Hillary, Go

Great RI. Mess in Texas, as expected.

[Unsane]

Nets +1 delegates!

[William769]

5. Which would be a negitive for Obama.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

10. Yeah, he's only got 155 left.

Not counting the ones he picked up in Vermont.

He better be careful.

[William769]

15. Yes he should.

He's about to be suckered punched and by a woman! :rofl:

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

17. It's going to happen any day now.

Thank god there are all those really big states left.

:thumbsup:

[William769]

23. It's going to the convention.

With all the States left to vote neither candidate will win. When it goes to the convention Hillary has the edge, and thats fine by me.

[Maribelle]

20. and spanked by a girl

:rofl:

[BleedingHeartPatriot]

26. Why is it so funny that it's a woman?

:shrug:

[OHdem10]

3. Congratulations Hillary, You hang in there, Girl.

[emilyg]

4. Yes.Yes!!!!

[Dinger]

6. Congratulations To Hillary!

:yourock: :headbang: :applause:

[gizmonic]

You Go Girl!

:patriot:

[HeraldSquare212]

7. Finally - the firewall!

[Tellurian]

11. Yep, Republicans in our state were disaffiliating to vote for HILLARY!

YAY...RI!

[FlyingSquirrel]

14. And again, this is GOOD when it happens to her but BAD when it happens

to Obama. Am I getting this right?

[Tellurian]

31. TEXAS GOES to HILLARY!

How's that grab your rightness.

[FlyingSquirrel]

32. Doesn't grab it anywhere. Caucuses have just begun. 56-44 Obama

I'm not the slightest bit concerned, I've run the numbers and predicted the necessary outcome for today. Hillary's not even coming close to what she would need to win the nomination.

Can't find my thread right now with advanced search turned off, but can find my numbers on spreadsheet.

Predictions were as follows (best case scenario):

Clinton wins OH delegates 79-62 (currently 59-35 with 86% in)
Clinton wins RI delegates 12-9 (currently 12-8 with 98% in)
Clinton wins TX delegates 97-96 (currently 30-22 with 74% in and 5% caucuses in)
Obama wins VT delegates 9-6 (currently 9-6 with 85% in)

Overall, Clinton gains 24 delegates when all is said and done. Still behind by 128, with 557 Pledged Delegates remaining. Would need average 62% of delegates in all remaining states, but the best she did today was 58% in RI.

Sorry 'bout that.

[Tellurian]

33. Nope, msnbc just said Howard Dean is going to be forced to add

Michigan and Florida to the equation, most likely before the PA Primary..

Yeah, Sorry 'bout that!

[FlyingSquirrel]

34. I'll direct you to my thread tomorrow... It takes MI and FL into consideration.

Should have bookmarked it. Oh well.

It's unlikely MI will be added due to the fact that she was the only one on the ballot, but even if it does happen, that's still only about 56 more delegates for her between the two states.

Current pledged delegate numbers: 1187 Obama, 1035 Clinton

After all four March 4 states: 1352 Obama, 1240 Clinton

(I'm being generous above, giving her a 40-delegate gain instead of my earlier 24-delegate prediction)

112 delegate lead for Obama, subtract 56 for MI and FL = 56 delegate lead for Obama

Remaining states except PA: 204 Clinton, 203 Obama - Best case scenario for Clinton.

Still a 55-delegate lead for Obama without PA's 151 delegates, even counting MI and FL.

That means Clinton would need to win 68% of the vote in PA. The four most recent polls show her ahead by an average of 48% to 38% in PA. If she got ALL the undecided vote there (highly unlikely), she'd only get 62%.

The math doesn't add up for her, even with FL and MI. It's too little too late.

---

Edit: Thread found.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=4737826

[Tellurian]

35. Where are the Superdelegates in your equation?

Or is the Flying Squirrel going to continue to play let's try to fool the readers?

[FlyingSquirrel]

36. In my equation, the superdelegates go with the pledged delegate leader

unless Hillary comes within about 35 pledged delegates and can claim a statistical tie, they won't want to be seen as overturning the popular vote.

As far as "try to fool the reader" goes, apparently at the moment I'm only talking to you. ;)

[Tellurian]

37. Apparently, you are only fooling yourself..

and suggest you watch the analysis done by the PROS.. By Hillary showing her strength last night, there is no rule the Superdelegates follow the states delegates or the popular vote. The Super D's will support the strongest DEM giving her the nomination. Last night's stunning victory over Obama has catapulted Hillary into front runner status once again as the strongest Dem candidate, whether you want to admit it or not!

[FlyingSquirrel]

38. The pros, that's laughable. Didn't hear them making delegate predictions

Go back to my archived thread above (10 days before election) and see how close I got. Vermont 6, actual 6. RI 12, actual 13. OH 80 (being generous), actual 74 with 3 delegates left to be assigned. TX 100, actual 78 with 45 left to be assigned in caucuses. She'll be lucky to get half of those remaining 45 and reach 100.

These were best-case scenarios, and to her credit she managed to hold her ground and nearly reach them. But she needed more. She will have gained (at the MOST), 24 delegates over where she stood. She gained a temporary standoff in the superdelegate defection.

The math remains the same, and nothing you have said has refuted the basic points in the archived thread. In order for the superdelegates to overturn the popular delegate vote, there needs to be a strong rationale and part of that rationale must be that it's a statistical tie. In order for her to reach that point, from this point on she must do AT LEAST 5-6% better in each remaining state (there are 12) than she has so far, AND get 59-60% in PA.

And that's not to catch up. That's just to get close enough to be able to get to a brokered convention situation. She could do it, but it's unlikely - certainly she's not in a position to call herself the front-runner right now.

[Tellurian]

39. The strong rational might be.. Obama indicted as a Rezko co-conspirator...

It's not looking very good for Obambi right now. And we know it's problematic for him keeping his testimony straight.

[MoonRiver]

8. Go Hill Go!

:woohoo:

[aquarius dawning]

9. get ready to start contributing again!!!!

[Hoof Hearted]

12. I'm giving money for every win tonight!

GO HILLARY!

[UALRBSofL]

19. Great win for Hillary ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

She's catching up with Obama on the pledged delegates. :bounce: :hi: :loveya: :headbang: :applause: :patriot:

[CampDem]

13. GO HILLARY!!!!

She just might be able to do this!!!
:toast:

[Maddy McCall]

18. Welcome to DU, CampDem!

:toast:

[Maribelle]

24. Welcome CampDem - you've come at a good time!

:pals:

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

16. Congrats are certainly in order.

[ORDem]

21. Yeah, congrats. At least now you can say you weren't shutout in the end. n/t

[robbedvoter]

22. Congratulations!

:bounce:

[BleedingHeartPatriot]

25. Nice.:-)

:toast:

[jazzjunkysue]

27. Um. Obama wins 11 in a row, and you cheer for RI?

If you had any sense, you'd all be depressed that she hadn't knocked Obama right out in February, like McCain.

Even if your girl sqeaks by, Obama ruined her party, just in case you hadn't noticed.

This was hers to lose. She still might lose it all.

But she can always turn GOP and be McCain's VP. Since they're so close, and all.

[susankh4]

28. Go Hill!

She is taking RI and OH by STORM!

And just pulled ahead in TX!

[Marie26]

29. Ohio next!!

:bounce: :toast: :)

[Algorem]

30. islands don't count