We have a serious problem if Clinton stays in, and a serious problem if she drops out

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

Imagine that Clinton were to win Ohio, Rhode Island and the Texas primary phase (since the TX caucus results won't be known for days), but Obama ends the night up a few net delegates on the day, including a Vermont blow-out, and with a few more to come when the TX caucus is sorted out.

The delegate math would be the same... it would remain essentially impossible for Clinton to win the most pledged delegates.

Meanwhile, consider the Gallup chart below which is confirmed by tons of other state and national results; simply put, Clinton has some small measure or recent momentum. This is standard... Democrats almost always have a buyers' remorse phase. (2004 was the most unified the party has ever been, and was not at all typical of an open-year Dem primary)

If Clinton is the media headline winner for the night for the first time since Nevada she will get a big bump on top of whether national momentum she has now. That's pretty uncontroversial. She will probably bump up to something like 50-43 or 51-42.

Meanwhile, people will be calling on her to drop out, starting Wednesday.

Bottom Line: If she won some states narrowly today but lost net delegates and decided she had no shot, and she dropped out Thursday, it is very likely that she would be dropping out while being the choice of more than 50% of Democrats and Dem-leaning independents.

That is not an argument, it is an observation. I understand the math. But I also understand that no candidate has probably ever dropped out of a primary contest while being the choice of the majority of Democrats and Dem leaners. Hillary has been toast for weeks, yet her popular support refuses to collapse. Obama is all but the presumptive nominee, yet people are not rallying to him in the numbers one would expect.

There has never been anything like this in my life-time. Everyone on all sides should recognize that this is not SIMPLE. There are vast blocks of Dem voters who will be bitterly disappointed. A lot of young Dem voters think Clinton is a Republican war-monger and would vote for Nader or not vote. A lot of old Dem voters think Obama is too green to be handed control of the US military, and would vote McCain.

Those are both big, real blocks of real voters.

This is not an argument for Obama or Clinton or who sucks. I am noting that we are potentially facing an unprecedented clash of the will of the people versus the will of the people. It's a strange situation.

All I can say is that I am glad Howard Dean is the referee. He's a good guy.

_______________________

[Cant trust em]

1. The first time we've had two compelling candidates?

A lot of conventional wisdom is being thrown out the window during this cycle.

[Divine Discontent]

4. there are many people who are totally new to the process

I'm not saying they're new to watching the news and reading the paper, but many are new to paying this much attention to the actual process, so they think this is more colossal than ever before. Yes, it's dramatically different because of WHO the two are, but it ultimately is only different because the weaker candidate as of yesterday, Hillary Clinton, has not gracefully bowed out, instead clinging to hopes that she can force MI and FL delegates to count. Otherwise, Obama has this wrapped up.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

35. ___

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

45. ___

[Bread and Circus]

2. Obama has been the the victim of a week of bullshit poo flinging non-stories

There's only so much mileage Cliton will get out of this crap. She has no momentum. She been in the mid 40s for nearly a year.

[Cant trust em]

6. only a week? nt

[NorthernSpy]

11. Clinton goes negative, the press reports it -- voila! "negative press"...

... which her supporters then complain about endlessly, and which then itself becomes the story.


:eyes:

[Window]

19. I hope Obama, nicely, throws some of that 'kitchen sink' shit back at her.

LOL!

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

34. ___

[Skarbrowe]

3. Interesting and fair. Thanks.

[FlyingSquirrel]

5. Solution: Obama/Clinton

If he would offer and she would accept.

[Cant trust em]

7. quite the if. nt

[FlyingSquirrel]

8. True dat.

What bothers me is, WHAT KIND OF !@#$%!@#$&* FOREIGN POLICY EXPERIENCE DID G.W.BUSH HAVE?????????????

I am SO SICK of this fucking double standard.

[Cant trust em]

10. that's why they added Dick Cheney

who was SecDef for Georgie's daddy.

[Window]

20. Yeah, a fucking chicken hawk. Go figure.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

21. Just a reminder, Cheney added himself! (He was in charge of picking a VP for GW)

[Cant trust em]

22. sounds about right based on what we've seen in the last 7 years

what a bastard.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

33. .

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

30. ...

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

9. Unfortunately, that's a terrible ticket

It would play out as "Untested leadership plus Clinton baggage."

He's too smart to offer, and she's too smart to accept.

Clinton/Obama would be an easy winner, but there's no way to get there.

I am not pessimistic yet (because McCain is REALLY unappealing) but I am frustrated that we have a clear shot at something big, but it's impossible to get there.

[FlyingSquirrel]

13. It annoys me that Obama will be forced to choose a candidate to improve

his "security" credentials. That probably does not allow for a female VP candidate OR Edwards. Don't know where that leaves it, since Clark has been a Clinton supporter.

?

[TheDoorbellRang]

16. But it would be a smart move

Cheney's "experience" in 2000 DID help Bush, to all our collective sorrow.

[Alexander]

12. Shillbots hate Dean because he isn't giving HRC Florida and Michigan.

Most of us reasonable Democrats understand that Dean's doing a great job.

[FlyingSquirrel]

14. Do you have to use the "shillbot" label? Be civil and people might actually

listen to what you have to say.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

48. A simple 'no slur nickname for supporters' rule would have prevented half the trouble in GDP

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

17. The OP praising Dean, is by a Clinton supporter (Just FYI)

[cottonseed]

15. I know the Repbulicans are loving it.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4880170&mesg_id=4880170

[Occam Bandage]

18. Hillary Clinton is, and always has been, deeply polarizing. This is not something new.

Her run was something I feared for quite a while. I was expecting her to divide the general electorate this sharply. I was not expecting her run to divide the Democratic electorate this sharply. However, as bitter of a divide as we might see, most Democrats still support both candidates--but the number drops the longer the race goes on. I'm getting to the point where I wish either Obama or Clinton would drop out, and scarcely caring which one it is.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

25. In one of the exit polls a majority of voters said they'd be 'dissatisfied' with the other candidate

not good news

[Occam Bandage]

27. Like I said:

I really, really hope one of them drops tomorrow, even though I know neither will. Don't care which. The longer this goes the worse our November chances get.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

28. Do remember, though, that right now we're before Super Tuesday in previous years

Historically, it's unusual to have a nominee in March.

That said... perhaps do in some part to Hillary having campaigned in the style of an incumbent, this is playing out as an insurgency against a sitting president. Think McCarthy-Johnson, Buchanan-Bush, Kennedy-Carter.

No seriously challenged incumbent president I can think of has ever won.

[amborin]

39. she's only polarizing when nasty people fling mud at her

barrage her with rethuglican talking points

i see attacks against hillary here on this allegedly democratic website that rival anything i've seen on the nastiest, basest, vilest red necked hillbilly misogynist sites

and then the very same attackers hurl one more insult by saying she's 'divisive

my word, it's so rovian it's beyond rove

[ProgressIn2008]

23. An interesting point - negative, both are polarizing and neither can score a knock out

Positive, both attract passionate and loyal supporters. Just the way tonight is so close expresses it well.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

44. ...

[mmonk]

24. Is she wins she stays longer.

If she continues the low road, the party leaders will get nervous and the voters more polarized. My second sentence is what everyone is worried about on the Dem side and delighting about on the Rep. side. Maybe if she goes positive after this it can stay issue focus and alay concerns?

[pnwmom]

26. If, come convention time, Hillary still has the most popular support,

but Obama has the edge in pledged delegates (but not enough to win outright), isn't this exactly what super-delegates are for? Hopefully they would vote for the candidate with more popular support.

Unless either of them has had a major scandal erupt between now and then, in which case the super-delegates would presumably respond to that.

[HeraldSquare212]

29. Tell it to Gary Hart.

[sykalla2]

31. Howard Dean Disenfranchised Florida & Michigan voters. He is NOT a good guy. *NT*

[Justitia]

36. Clearly, you don't have a fucking clue who sets the primary schedule.

Hint: It's not Dean.

[ecstatic]

47. Before FL & MI voted, I sported an avatar for weeks that said: "Count the votes, Dean!"

How the fuck he didn't see this trainwreck coming I will NEVER know. The time to have corrected this situation was BEFORE the voting began! How could they have been so stupid? And this comes from a rabid Deaniac '03/'04.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

32. Self-kick because the starting scenario played out

[Blondiegrrl]

37. You have an excellent point, BUT

I sincerely doubt Clinton will drop out, even if she does get pressure from the DNC, etc., to do so. It's just not in her nature.

All I can say is that I am glad Howard Dean is the referee. He's a good guy.

Now that we can agree on!

[amborin]

38. good post

i agree...we've got two big, roughly equal blocks of voters who are very attached to their respective candidate

and for either candidate to fail to get the nomination--even if this failure occurs much later than right after one or the other gets a post primary win bump---means there will be a very disappointed, disgruntled other half of the dem party

so, are we now in a lose lose situation for november?

much depends on the maturity level of the supporters, whether they'll bury the hatchet and vote for the other candidate....but...even if most are mature, in a tight GE, we need EVERY dem vote....

my earlier hope was that Hillary would clinch clear victory and ask Obama to be her running mate....this would position him well for 2016, he'd still be young and have much more experience

that was unlikely, of course, even before they both got nasty with each other

so, all this bodes badly for november

can we get a third candidate? Gore?

but a third candidate would have much less visibility and traction....so....

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

40. My solution: Clinton/Obama, Hillary agrees to not seek a second term. Obama 2012.

Best for the party and close to fair, in that neither side would be delighted but both could probably live with it.

[calico1]

42. She would never agree to be a lame duck President n/t

[Laura PourMeADrink]

41. sounds like Bush's Iraq. Can't stay and can't leave ! nt

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

43. As the saying goes, if it was easy, everybody would be doin' it.

[ecstatic]

46. I am emotionally invested in this race nt