Exit Poll: Hillary hasn't won Texas

[adoraz]

there is another headline here with "AP Exit Poll: Clinton wins today's voting in Texas". This is complete crap.

The poster cites this by noting that "Long story short--Hispanic turnout is WAY up (over 30%) and Af-Am turnout is exactly where it was four years ago (20%)."

Well lets look at the latest survey USA (best polling out there), and see where they put the percentages:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d7698664-137f-46f0-ba92-32aea473d72e

Hispanic- 32% (about even)
Black- 17% (less than reported)

In this poll, Obama had won by 1 point.

That means, going by exit poll numbers, Obama could very likely squeak out a victory. :)

Polling places had already increased Hispanic voting prior. Its exactly what they thought it would be.

[Arugula Latte]

1. Good news.

I feel pretty good about Texas going Obama's way. Just a hunch. :)

[adoraz]

3. me too. a win would be amazing there for him.

[babylonsister]

10. I voted in TX today and was AMAZED at the turnout! My DH

voted later, and he too was amazed. It was great, lots of enthusiasm. Fingers crossed...

[Arugula Latte]

23. Cool. Thanks for the report. *fingers crossed*

:toast:

[meow mix]

2. looks good to me

woot =)

[Window]

4. Thanks for this post. Have to sort through a lot of crap for something reliable.

Peace:thumbsup:

[thewiseguy]

You are exactly right and also...

SUSA predicted a 64-33 lead for Hillary amongst Hispanics
and a 79-18 lead for Obama amongst Blacks

The exit polls are showing slightly better numbers for Obama.

Now I am very excited for the returns. :)

[BringBigDogBack]

5. Hill's done.

"It's the delegates, stupid!"

[Divernan]

6. & poll didn't allow for early voting, or the weighted Texas formula

for assigning delegates relative to the numbers voting in various areas for the last presidential and gubernatorial elections. But then I think that other poster was a Clinton person and had their own axe to grind.

[BringBigDogBack]

9. bingo bango...

[FrenchieCat]

7. Amazing how people "call" anything prior to the vote being completed!

Tis a shame! :puke:

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

8. The other poster you refer to was just TSed, so whatever he/she was saying is dubious either way

[Jersey Devil]

12. LOL, maybe we should just go have a drink

:toast:

[Nia Zuri]

11. Early voting way up among blacks & not refelcted in exit polling

[thewiseguy]

14. Funny thing is that the black turnout reported today is better than what polls expected!

[adoraz]

16. not too much, but still better :)

[Jersey Devil]

29. Yes, but unless you know the % of early voters for blacks and latinos

it means nothing. For all we know the black vote could be double what it is today in total, same for latinos

[Scurrilous]

13. Kick

:kick:

[bluestateguy]

15. I think Obama needs 45% of the white vote to definently win

If he gets a little below that, he'll have to do better than expected with blacks (where he is about maxed out) and Hispanics.

[adoraz]

17. probably correct

[anigbrowl]

18. The AP article might mean hispanic turnout is up 30% over last time

as opposed to 30% of the total - that was what I took it to mean. No offense, but I wish people would put on their thinking caps before they would start to sound off on statistics.

[adoraz]

21. NO. read the article.

I wish people would put on their thinking craps before making untrue predictions without even clicking the link.

Hispanics, a group that has favored Clinton in earlier primaries, cast nearly one-third of the Election Day votes in Texas,

there, happy?

[Justyce]

19. People are just now getting off of work and going to vote -- still have

an hour and a half of voting, then caucuses after that... Too early to know anything.

[adoraz]

22. yep, its way too close to call

[RamboLiberal]

20. ABC: EXIT POLL: 'Change' Tops 'Experience"... Again

The theme of change continues to resonate in Ohio and Texas, but not by as wide a margin as in most previous primaries. The ability to "bring needed change" beats "experience" as the most important quality in a candidate by about a 20-point margin in Ohio and by about 15 points in Texas, according to preliminary exit poll results.

That compares, for example, with the Wisconsin primary, where change beat experience by 32 points.

Preliminary exit poll results also suggest a healthy turnout by Latinos in the Texas Democratic primary, where early results indicate they're accounting for just over three in 10 voters. If that holds, it'll be a record.

Blacks account for about two in 10 Texas Democratic voters, closer to their customary share of the electorate. In this early data blacks also account for two in 10 in Ohio, which if it holds would be up from 2004.

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Vote2008/story?id=4386210&page=1

Sounds promising for Obama - keeping my fingers crossed!

[meow mix]

24. sweet

[RamboLiberal]

25. CBS Blog on Early Exit Polls

The economy was the top issue for Democratic voters in all four states voting today, and large majorities say the economy is in bad shape.

Ohio Democratic voters hold mostly negative views on U.S. trade with other countries: Eight in ten say trade takes jobs away from their state. In Texas, 58 percent say trade takes jobs away, while a quarter say U.S. trade with other countries creates jobs.

Thirty-two percent of Texas Democratic primary voters are Hispanic, according to the early exit polls -– up from the 24 percent in 2004. Eighteen percent are black, down from 21 percent in 2004.

In Ohio, 20 percent of Democratic primary voters are African American, up from 14 percent in 2004.

Obama is seen by voters in Texas and Ohio as the candidate most likely to beat the Republican nominee in November. A larger percentage of voters in both states say Clinton has attacked Obama unfairly than the other way around.

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/03/04/politics/horserace/entry3906766.shtml

[meow mix]

26. A larger percentage of voters in both states say Clinton has attacked Obama unfairly

no doubt about that one

[thewiseguy]

27. I am going to dance if this is true!

I would be so happy if the voters rejected negative attacks and Rovian tactics!

[tridim]

28. In Rove's home state no less. nt

[NorthernSpy]

30. Texas and Ohio voters view Obama as having a better shot against the GOP...

Good!


Yes, his race and his Muslim relatives will be used against him. We know that. But maybe we don't have to let it shut us down. Maybe we can punch through it and win anyway.

After all, the things that we will have to go through to turn this country around will be a lot worse than that.