AP Exit Poll: Clinton wins today's voting in Texas

[geek tragedy]

Unless Obama won the early vote by a massive number, Clinton's going to have a comfortable win in TX.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/C/CAMPAIGN_RDP?SITE=ALMON&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

Long story short--Hispanic turnout is WAY up (over 30%) and Af-Am turnout is exactly where it was four years ago (20%).

[RL3AO]

1. You lost me at "Comforatable win in TX"

[geek tragedy]

6. With Hispanic turnout way up, it's going to be a 6-10 point

margin for her.

Not particularly close.

[anigbrowl]

25. You don't really understand the Texas system, do you?

You're assuming you can extrapolate the popular vote to the delegate count.

[Bucky]

40. OP doesn't understand the Texas voters either.

Hispanics will cut about 3 to 2 for Clinton. It's not much of an edge.

[geek tragedy]

62. I'm talking about popular vote, not delegate count.

We have no idea how the delegate count is going to go.

[yourguide]

59. you're forgetting the early voting went in Obamas favor

also, he is taking 35% of the hispanic vote while she is only taking 18% of the AA vote.

[geek tragedy]

63. There's no reliable polling on early voting.

None.

[yourguide]

78. blah blah blah

8%

[Omega3]

56. you had me at "Spurs still suck" Go Gunners!

[RL3AO]

64. :D

Do you think anyone knows what we are talking about?

[enough already]

77. Two lousy football teams. :)

Glory, glory Man United!

[redqueen]

84. Hey!

That was a nothing game last weekend... frickin Fulham... PFFT!

[redqueen]

83. Yusssssss

:bounce:

[hueyshort]

2. So very Excellent

Thanks for the good news.

[high density]

3. Texas has that fucked up caucus part of it that hasn't even started yet

So umm, I think any Clinton victory claims are early at this point.

[LSparkle]

4. But delegate allocation is based on PRIOR turnout

and Hispanics DIDN'T turn out last time so they're not going to get a disproportionate percentage of delegates.

It's all about the delegates ...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Si Si Puede

~

[geek tragedy]

9. si SE puede, senor. n/t

[grantcart]

7. nothing in link related to your summary

[Renew Deal]

8. Where does it say that Hillary won the day?

Also, their numbers match Survey USA which has Obama ahead.

[geek tragedy]

33. There is no way Clinton loses if Hispanics are over 30%

of the voters. No fracking way.


Let's assume that she wins 65% of Latinos and 18% of African-Americans.

Latino: 32%
Af-Am: 20%
White/other: 48%


She'd only need to win 54% of white voters, which she's done in just about every poll.

Sorry, but she's winning the popular vote in Texas. We can still pull out the caucuses though.

[Renew Deal]

47. Based on what we know about Hispanics and blacks, she would need 53% of whites

Obama would need 47-48% of whites to win. Early voting is HUGE. Is Survey USA right or is Belo, either means Obama wins big or bigger. If it's worse than 50-48 for Hillary in early voters, she's probably cooked.

[tekisui]

52. Delegate allocation is wieghted in the regions.

ANd the caucus should swing a lot to Obama. I still think he;ll take the delegate count in TX and for the night,.

[geek tragedy]

55. Probably. But she'll get to crow about winning

the statewide vote.

Which really sucks.

[tekisui]

58. Still to be seen.

[MadBadger]

10. Where does it say that????

I completely disagree from the numbers i see

[high density]

It doesn't, of course

The Hispanic turnout was high today, leading the OP to draw crazy assumptions.

[dansolo]

48. Especially because it doesn't take into account early voting

[thesubstanceofdreams]

11. Your link doesn't say that at all

Please provide a link for your assertion that Clinton wins today's voting in TX according to AP. Thanks.

[Levgreee]

12. I thought Hispanic turnout was supposed to be around 40%

are you sure 30% is WAY up?

[geek tragedy]

42. Was 25% in 2004. n/t

[Mass]

13. SUSA Poll shows Obama winning TX with a lower AA vote and an equivalent hispanic vote.

[MadBadger]

16. And apparently its 3% more in TX

[bluestateguy]

14. This strikes me as false

There are no numbers

[Tarc]

24. Facts usually strike Obamaniacs that way.

[bluestateguy]

34. Yeah, well where are the facts?

I literally see no facts in that article about exit poll results and who voted for who, much less who won.

[Danger Mouse]

79. What facts? Where are the facts?

[thewiseguy]

15. Do you have a reading problem?

Where in your link does it remotely suggest that Hillary is winning in Texas?

[thoughtcrime1984]

17. Guess she's President, then

:sarcasm:

[SKKY]

18. Where does that say Clinton wins todays voting in Texas??

Texas voting is still going on, plus the Caucus. You trying to predict the future again?

[Bucky]

28. The OP is inferring this directly from the fact that Texans vote 100% along racial lines

Being white, now, I cannot decide whether I want to vote for the black candidate Obama or that lovely Hispanic lady, Mrs Clinton.

[SKKY]

So, a bunch of crap...

You know, I read that whole freakin' thing, and now I'm pissed because that's 8 minutes of my life I will never get back! :grr:

[geek tragedy]

Hispanics are an automatic 65% for her.

Just like African-Americans are an automatic 80-85% for him.

Unfortunately, she got the Hispanics out a lot more than he got the African-Americans out.

[jazzjunkysue]

19. Same thing on Faux news live, just now (6 pm Eastern) n/t.

[seabeyond]

20. 2 more hours of voting and caucus and massive early voting, ... wow, crystal ball?

[THUNDER HANDS]

21. i call shenanigans

and by shenanigans, i mean bullshit.

[WillyT]

22. LOL !!! -We'll See...

:shrug:

[Bucky]

23. You have everything but relevant facts to back you up there.

Are you assuming Obama gets 100% of the black vote and Clinton 100% of the Hispanic? I don't think you quite get Texas if that's your assumption.

But I'm content to wait and see. We'll know in three hours how the day went.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. His Inference Rests On A Set Of Assumptions But Logical Ones, Ergo:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/the_demographics_of_texas_poll.php

[AnneD]

26. Were these the same...

exit polls that showed Gore the winner and Kerry the winner? It is way too early and there is too much fence jumping here in Texas to make a prediction.

[Life Long Dem]

27. Why don't you go all the way and make up a headline that say's

AP Exit Poll: Clinton Wins Nomination!

[zonkers]

29. Misleading. Bullshit post. This thread should be locked.

[HeraldSquare212]

35. Agree, the headline is misleading. It's based on the OP's supposition, nothing more.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. But A Logical Supposition, Ergo

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/the_demographics_of_texas_poll.php

[HeraldSquare212]

54. But the header makes it look like its an AP headline.

[HooptieWagon]

67. That would be the OP's suppository...

[HeraldSquare212]

71. eewww!

[geek tragedy]

80. Hey now! Stay outta my personal space! n/t

[blitzen]

30. Early voting (Obama's trump card) means those numbers don't mean much

[MadBadger]

31. Based on the SUSA poll and the CNN Exits, Its a dead heat.

[Drunken Irishman]

37. With Obama probably eeking out a 1-2 point win.

IF the SUSA poll is right.

[MadBadger]

41. We dont know white vote yet.

[jgraz]

32. BREAKING ON AP: Hillary rips off human mask to reveal horrific alien visage

People run in horror as she shoots death rays from her eyes.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g8-DEMtAE9q4i4ySQ0eV_qZefmRQD8V66G801

[jazzjunkysue]

50. "Luke, I am your father."

[Hoof Hearted]

36. Woooo Hooooo! THREE CHEERS FOR THE ~LADY~

Woot! Woot!

:applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause:

:woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

[robbedvoter]

38. Cautiously optimistic here

[EFerrari]

43. I don't believe it. n/t

[Name removed]

44. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[EFerrari]

51. I don't think that's against GD-P rules. In fact, aren't those the GD-P rules?

:silly:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

53. His Header Is Inartful But His Inference Is Based On A Set Of Logical Assumptions

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/the_demographics_of_texas_poll.php

[MadBadger]

73. I dont think his assumption is logical if you look at the SUSA poll.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

76. If You Read The Link Mark Blumenthal,PhD Looks At Over A Dozen Polls

But whatever makes you feel better...

[amborin]

45. Yeah, Hillary, our next president!

[jefferson_dem]

49. HERE for a bit of good news "Obamabots"

First Word of Exits For Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, Vermont

This is interesting. One of my sources has gotten two sets of exit poll results. It's unclear whether this is different pollsters or, I suspect, different times of day.

For the first set, Obama is up by 2 percent in Ohio, Hillary is up by 2 percent in Texas, Hillary is up by 3 percent in Rhode Island and Obama is up by a 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.

The second set is similarly close - Hillary up by 2 percent in Ohio, the two Democrats tied in Texas, Obama ahead by 2 percent in Rhode Island and a similar 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.

You'll hear more as I learn more.

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjI0NjBmZTFkMzcyOGMxMjAxNjk4YWM5NWY2ZGU3NzU=

[jgraz]

61. If accurate, that is very bad news for Clinton

A 2 point win in the TX primary results will almost certainly lead to an overall victory for Obama in that state. Obama ahead by any margin in OH will be devastating and the close race in RI just puts the cherry on top of this shit sundae for Hillary.

[DB1]

57. Oops, that dam math raises it's ugly head again, even if you are correct..

Say the Hispanic vote is 33% and the AA vote is 20%, Clinton takes Hispanics 22 ti 11, and Obama tkes AA's 16-4, based on track record, Obama leads in these 2 groups 27 to 26.

[geek tragedy]

66. Clinton enjoys a 10 point lead

amongst white voters.

[TexasLady]

60. Heres a poll our local tv station has up

Barack Obama (D) - 28.6%
Hillary Clinton (D) - 22.7%
John McCain (R) - 23.4%
Mike Huckabee (R) - 22.2%
Ron Paul (R) - 3.2%
Total Responses - 406


Waco Poll

[nomorewhopper]

65. HILLARY TOOK LATINOS 64%-34% IN TX! (early exit polls)

if latinos were 30% of the electorate, that would be a great news for hrc


http://thepage.time.com/preliminary-exit-poll-data-from-cnn/

[Drunken Irishman]

70. Actually, it shows it will be extremely close.

That's about what Clinton was expected to get based on most polls. So far, she hasn't outperformed the polls in that regard. If Obama does well within the white population, he wins Texas by a couple of points.

Obama getting 35% of the Latino vote isn't bad.

[MadBadger]

75. Obama took African Americans 83-16 according to CNN. They are up from 17% in SUSA to 20%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

81. She Does Worse Among African Americans In The PPP Poll And Still Wins By Six

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/PPP_Texas_Release_030308.pdf


Be :scared:

[mistertrickster]

68. There's nothing in this story that says "Clinton Wins." It's just reporting on turnout. nt

[tammywammy]

69. There's still voting going on for another 1 hour 45 minutes

:eyes:

[Kahuna]

72. So, according to you, every one of those hispanics is voting for Clinton????

I find that really hard to believe.

[LisaL]

74. Not everyone.

Just read on cnn that two out of three hispanics are voting for Clinton.
Which is a good news for her, if hispanics turnout is way up.

[geek tragedy]

82. No, just the standard 65%. n/t

[NorthernSpy]

85. That's just a template piece. They write the article before they have numbers.

When the numbers come in, they revise as necessary. That's why we keep seeing all these contradictory polls and exit polls and reports: it's just a lot of stuff that people are paid to come up with.

Sometimes these numbers look good. Sometimes they look bad. But either way, I always remind myself not to take them too seriously, because the real numbers are the only ones that matter -- and even exit polling does a fairly poor job of predicting real outcomes.

[stray cat]

86. Younger hispanics are trending to Obama - according to MSNBC