Pollster projects Hillary Clinton winning TX, OH and RI, gaining 9 delegates over Barak Obama

[awaysidetraveler]

Hillary Clinton, according to Pollster.com, is projected to win a total of nine elected delegates.

They project that Hillary Clinton will win the Ohio vote by 49.6%, gaining 70 delegates (69.93);
Barak Obama will make off with only 43.61% of the vote and 61 delegates (61.47).

In Texas, Hillary Clinton is projected to win by 47.6% of the vote, gaining 92 delegates (91.86);
meanwhile, Barak Obama will take 45.9% of the vote, gaining 89 delegates (88.58).

In Rhode Island, Hillary Clinton should win by 42% of the vote and gain 9 delegates (8.82);
Barak Obama should lose with 37% of the vote, gaining 8 delegates (7.77).

In Vermont however, Barak Obama is projected to win with 57% of the vote, gaining 9 delegates (8.55);
while Hillary Clinton is projected to lose with 34% of the vote, gaining only 5 delegates (5.1).

This will give Hillary Clinton a winning night, with a total of 176 elected delegates.
This will give Barak Obama a losing night, with a total of 167 elected delegates.

As we all know, the polls have been incorrect to a great degree, skewing in favor of Hillary Clinton.
The pollsters usually cite high turnout among populations that usually don’t vote, cell phone use and
last-minute voters changing the outcome of the vote in unpredictable ways. Caucus votes also seem to
favor Barak Obama, causing the "Texas two-step" to favor Barak Obama.

As always, no matter who you favor, please don’t use polls as an excuse to stay home and not vote:
your vote has never mattered more to the Democratic Party.

[Hoof Hearted]

1. Thanks for putting the bit in at the end reminding people to vote, no matter what.

And thanks for posting this.


I'M SO DAMN EXCITED.

:woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

[nomorewhopper]

2. now if she can have 15 more election days where she pics up 9 deles, she will tie obama

[democrattotheend]

3. I think the TX margin will be worse than that, but Obama will gain more delegates

The polls have generally favored Clinton, but in this case, the tide clearly seems to be turning to clinton, and since the polls are 3-day averages and the worst numbers for Obama were last night or the night before, I actually expect Obama to underperform the polls this time.

[awaysidetraveler]

8. Interesting, why do you think Obama will underperform the polls this time?

I mean there's what happened in Nevada, but that's the only instance I can remember.

[democrattotheend]

28. Polls are three day averages, and he is losing ground

In the Gallup national tracking poll, for example, he still led yesterday, but by 3 points fewer than the day before. No big deal in and of itself, but they said that Clinton had had a particularly good night sunday night. Sure enough, today the poll showed them tied...tomorrow we may see Clinton leading.

If the polls are 3-day rolling averages and he is losing ground, that means the 1-day numbers are probably worse, and the one-day numbers are all that matters in terms of predicting current sentiment.

I really hope I am wrong on this, btw.

[awaysidetraveler]

39. That's interesting. Still... the difference of one or two points in TX or OH would leave Obama up.

I'm curious, what gives you this faith in one day numbers?

[Pirate Smile]

4. Obama gained 18 delegates from Hawaii and Wisconsin. She wont be able to catch up

on pledged delegates.

Will he make up that 18 or more by Mississippi and Wyoming? Probably.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

5. 9, eh?

So that would give Obama a 146 delegate lead.

[awaysidetraveler]

13. Yes it would.

There's almost no way that Clinton can win a delegate race, if these numbers are correct.

[bluestateguy]

6. well, let her have this night then

Because those gains will be washed out by the ass kickings she is going to take in Wyoming and Mississippi.

[damntexdem]

7. It's time to stop listening to the polls; and see what happens at the polling places.

And how can they possibly project what will happen with TX caucus delegates?

[4_Legs_Good]

45. I know, I know, buuuuuutttt...

I think we're all political junkies, so all we have is polls to keep us entertained until the real numbers materialize.

David

[Major Hogwash]

9. Not even close.

LoL

[mattclearing]

10. The only poll that matters is happening right now.

See you when it's over.

[NJSecularist]

11. Pollster put the average of their polls into an equation

And they got this.

It gives you an idea of what might happen, but there are too many undecides to take much from this.

[awaysidetraveler]

19. I agree, there are too many variables at play to know for certain.

However, it is interesting to look at the projections and analyze the polls.

[Hoof Hearted]

12. Somebody give this the K&R #5!

[rocktivity]

14. Get thee beyond me, polls!

UNCLEAN! UNCLEAN!!!



:headbang:
rocknation.tv

[Shine]

30. LOL!!

:rofl:

[JackORoses]

15. They don't even take the Texas caucus into consideration.

I wouldn't pay much attention to the numbers of someone who can't even make that distinction.

[Perky]

35. It is the OPs extrapolation not Pollster.com's

[awaysidetraveler]

46. How can I take the Texas caucus into consideration?

It's an unknown, which may tend to favor Obama by some unknown number of votes.

Or is there some mathematical way of showing that trend?

[flordehinojos]

Yes !!!

O8) angels looking after you hillary!

[thisbrownpoet]

16. Texas is a toss-up

Her lead there does not surpass 3%. At this point we should be in wait-and-see mode. In Ohio she seems to be on pace to win, but surprises have abounded this cycle.

[featherman]

17. Strange data... appears to be a simple extrapolation of polling averages

Rhode Island average? 42% to 37% with 21% undecided?

Not sure what value that is. We'll be getting actual results soon enough.

But thanks anyway.

[TheDoorbellRang]

22. I noticed that, too. Percentages don't add up to 100 in any of their scenarios

Guess we'll just have to wait and see.

[awaysidetraveler]

23. It is a simple extrapolation of polling averages.

Rhode Island and Vermont didn't get many polls, but there were more than enough polls from TX and OH.

[nolabels]

18. So is this some anonymous pollster or do you have a secret link for us?

Cut and paste really isn't that difficult, really :shrug:

[awaysidetraveler]

51. It's just pollster's numbers, but here you go.

Sorry for the delay, and here you go:

http://www.pollster.com/08-OH-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

http://www.pollster.com/08-TX-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

http://www.pollster.com/08-RI-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

http://www.pollster.com/08-VT-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

The numbers I gave for delegates are a simple extrapolation from the average polls given in the last 3 days.

[skipos]

20. If that is all she gets in delegates, she is doomed.

Wyoming and Mississippi are right around the corner, and the Pennnsylvania polls are not as nice to here now as the OH and TX ones were three weeks ago.

Personally, I could see her doing better than pollster predicts today.

[awaysidetraveler]

55. What makes you think she'll do better than pollster predicts?

It's a little funny, looking at these numbers.

Texas looks like a toss-up for a number of reasons: this two-step primary-caucus process,
the interesting demographics of the state, and the strange changes in the trajectory of the
final polls.

Ohio's primary process and failure to process new voters tends to favor Hillary a little as well,
though there the Obama trajectory remains unchanged.

Still... it seems to be a trend that Obama's supporters identify themselves as underdogs,
showing up when the chips are down and shrugging the vote off when the chips are up.

If this theory is true, it might describe why Obama lost in both New Hampshire and Nevada.
And that would not be good news for Obama tonight.

[jefferson_dem]

21. So instead of a 156 PD lead, he would have a 147 PD lead.

And Obama could make up the net loss of 9 delegates today with 60-40 wins in WY and MS.

I see no plausible way Hillary can catch up on PDs prior to the convention. Someone prove me wrong.

[bunnies]

27. thanks for saving me from having to do the math.

:hi:

[awaysidetraveler]

34. That sounds accurate to me.

And I can't find Hillary's supporters who are willing to discuss the math.

To be frank, I'm afraid that the media will attempt to draw this race out in the longest
and most divisive manner possible. After all, this election is a money machine to them.

[Pirate Smile]

36. Math has an Obama bias.

[cindyw]

24. gaining 9, not 9 over barack. She will still be behind

[Pirate Smile]

25. "This is the key number to keep in mind when watching the election returns" - 52 delegates

"With the Clinton campaign now saying they will stay in the race even if they lose delegates in Texas, it's worth putting into perspective just how difficult it would be for them to close Barack Obama's lead in pledged delegates. For Clinton to pull ahead, she will need to win 57% of the remaining pledged delegates. To keep that number from rising even higher, they of course need to win 57% of the delegates on Tuesday, which would mean getting at least 213 delegates to Obama's 161 -- a 52 delegate advantage. If they net anything below 52 delegates, they fall even further behind. This is the key number to keep in mind when watching the election returns.

And, of course, even netting 52 delegates is hardly a big win. The Clinton campaign picked Texas and Ohio as its battleground because those states are particularly Clinton-friendly. The remaining primary states include several -- like Mississippi, Oregon, and North Carolina -- where Obama is likely to rack up major wins. That means that Clinton needs to gain well over 57% of the delegates in the states that are better for her. The only way she could possibly do this would be to utterly destroy Obama's reputation, make him a radioactive figure, like Al Sharpton. This also seems like an extreme longshot, though the Clinton campaign appears to be attempting to pull it off with its flurry of attacks."


http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/03/03/the-number-to-watch-on-tuesday-night.aspx

[awaysidetraveler]

44. Interesting post! You say she needs a 52 delegate lead tonight?

Give me a minute to add this one up. It sounds about right, but I want to be certain.

[matt819]

26. Skip math class, did we?

Okay, here's the status from cnn.com:

The Race for Delegates
Democrats Needed to Win = 2,025
Candidate Pledged Delegates Super Delegates Total
Obama 1184 194 1378
Clinton 1031 238 1269

There are tens of thousands of ifs, ands, and buts with respect to all the polls, but using the numbers you present above, Obama weighs in as follows, and leaving the super delegates unchanged:

Democrats Needed to Win = 2,025
Candidate Pledged Delegates Super Delegates Total
Obama 1351 194 1545
Clinton 1207 238 1445

Obama is still up by 100 delegates, and that's before the allocation of other super delegates. A 9-delegate change is not a landslide, not do the results projected reflect a turning of the tide in Clinton's favor.

[awaysidetraveler]

38. I'm just pointing out the 9 point lead in tonight's elections.

The math is very clear: Obama's 152 elected-delegate lead (per NPR) is going to push him over the top.

[Renew Deal]

29. That's based on existing polls, not expectations.

The numbers make no since if that's a prediction. It works as a possible minimum.

[awaysidetraveler]

53. Strictly speaking....

Polls are predictions, so I don't know exactly what you mean.

What do you mean by a "possible minimum"?

[Perky]

31. This is highly inaccurate IMHO

it seems to take the state wide percentage and apply it to the delgate count..... That is not how it works. It has to be done at the Senate Distict level in Tecase and the COnrgressional ditrict level in the htree other states.

The truth of it is the Texas Primary math fvor Obam a little bit because of the apportionment issues. I expect that nearly all districts with an odd number of delegates will result in results that are "x" vs "x + 1" where there is an even number of delegates to be awarded it is more likely than not to split evenly. Obama is likey to have a very small benegit there. since it reallyis 31 minie elections.


Beyond that it totally forgets the Texas caucus nwhere his is likely to get 60% of the vote.

[Vinca]

32. All the delegates don't seem to be accounted for.

Vermont has 15 delegates, not 14 and Rhode Island has 21, not 17. Ohio has 10 more and Texas has 12 more.

[awaysidetraveler]

40. Correct, and there's no way of accounting for those extra delegates by extrapolation.

It depends on how the election rules divide those delegates in those states.

However, it does give a basic idea of the number of delegates that Hillary Clinton can expect to win tonight,
if the polls are accurate.

[Window]

33. ..

[texas_indy]

37. The DO NOT project Hillary winning.......from their own website...

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/texas_whatif.php

March 04, 2008
Texas What-If

Let's start with the bottom line: The final value of our trend estimate for Texas (at least as of this writing) shows Hillary Clinton running slightly ahead of Barack Obama (47.6% to 45.9%), but I would advise readers against treating that as a solid prediction of the outcome. It may turn out that way, of course, but variation among individual polls and more importantly -- uncertainty at this hour about the racial composition of the Texas electorate -- means that the ultimate result is unknowable.


Texas for Obama!! VIVA OBAMA!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fd-MVU4vtU

[rodeodance]

41. Texas for Mama!! VIVA MAMA!!

[awaysidetraveler]

43. Yes, the Texas elections are particularly uncertain.

In South Carolina, also for ethnic vote issues, the polls disfavored Obama by an average of 16.6%.

Those same issues are at play here. We'll all have to vote and see.

[RememberWellstone]

42. Hehe

I thought this would be over by tonight? Guess not...keep fighting on, Hillary!!

[NDambi]

47. First Crack distorts the brain...then it Kills!!!!

[Dogmudgeon]

48. Supers go for Obama. Voters go for Hillary.

Yeah, that's gonna play real well.

--p!

[mod mom]

49. 800+ posts since Jan '08-that's amazing.

[awaysidetraveler]

52. Lol... Gee mod mom, you're embarrassing me.

Yes, I'm an elections junkie: you've got me there.

[amborin]

50. whoever wins Ohio wins the GE

[amborin]

54. as a Hillary supporter: Whoever wins Ohio wins the GE

[Arugula Latte]

56. Nine? Wow, that's a drop of piss in a bucket.

[robbedvoter]

57. Thanks!

[HeraldSquare212]

58. All that, for 9 delegates? That's gotta hurt.

[grantcart]

59. Obama has already gained 2 superdelegates

by the way Vermont will go bigger than that giving him another 5


Texas is completely wrong because only 126 are primary related

60 in the caucus.

[maddiejoan]

60. K&R

[gizmonic]

61. K&R

:kick: