Obama Supporters: Keep the Faith!

[Tatiana]

SOUTH CAROLINA
RCP Average (01/15 to 01/25)
Obama: 38.4%
Clinton: 26.8%
Edwards: 19.2%
Obama +11.6
Actual Result: Obama +28.9 (55.4% to 26.5%)

MISSOURI
RCP Average (01/30 to 02/04)
Clinton: 47.5%
Obama: 41.8%
Clinton +5.7
Actual Result: Obama +1 (49% to 48%)

ALABAMA
RCP Average (01/29 to 02/04)
Clinton: 46.0%
Obama: 44.8%
Clinton +1.2
Actual Result: Obama +14 (56% to 42%)

VIRGINIA
RCP Average (02/06 to 02/10)
Obama: 55.0%
Clinton: 37.3%
Obama +17.7
Actual Result: Obama +28.2 (63.6% to 35.4%)

WISCONSIN
RCP Average (02/08 to 02/14)
Obama: 46.3%
Clinton: 42.0%
Obama +4.3
Actual Result: Obama +17.4 (58.1% to 40.7%)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

As this sampling indicates, polls constantly underestimate Obama's strength with the electorate. Younger voters (many without landlines) usually are not weighted accurately in these polls. Younger voters are Obama's strength. Additionally, polling data typically under-represents first-time voters, who are also one of Obama's key demographic groups.

Remember, the polls had Clinton winning Missouri by 5+ points and Alabama by 1 point. Things are not as bad as they seem, in spite of all the negativity perpetuated. Every time the opposing side has gone negative, it has backfired. There is no reason to believe it will not backfire this time, as well.

[blogslut]

1. All good here

:)

[Pavlovs DiOgie]

2. Thanks!

I was just asking my husband about this exact thing: what the polls said ahead of time and how they compared with the actual results. This news is quite encouraging!

[NewHampster]

3. This one's for you

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRGzdCfZWMw

[Tatiana]

8. I think it's past your bedtime. n/t

[DJ13]

4. Im not stressed

Obama only needs to win a slim majority of the delegates tomorrow and Hillary is history.

She has an impossible task.

[krkaufman]

16. But a clear victory in TX (or/and OH) for Obama would finish her, for sure.

She *must* win both states, plus Rhode Island, for her candidacy to retain any credibility.

Honestly, though, regardless of Tuesday's results, Hillary's only path to the nomination is via the superdelegates... and it's the superdelegates who are truly the audience for the Clinton campaign's surge in smears against Obama. I could see her continuing on, sticking to her plan to override Obama's pledged delegate plurality via the superdelegates.

[thevoiceofreason]

5. Thanks for doing this.

I'm mad as hell and fired up and ready to go!

[Tatiana]

9. YES WE CAN! (Win this thing!)

It will be up to the party elders to gently escort Sen. Clinton off the stage.

[NightWatcher]

6. yes, it's cool, we'll be fine tomorrow after the numbers come out

let these people have their rah rah tonight

[dailykoff]

7. He'll win in the end.

You can't stop a tidal wave with a mudbath.

There's a bus to Hopeless leaving at eight.

[Johnny__Motown]

10. Polls are based on Likely Voters, Unlikely Voters show up for Barack in droves

[LibertyorDeath]

11. Thanks !

"Younger voters (many without landlines) usually are not weighted accurately"

[tabasco]

12. I was wondering if cell phone only people are a factor in these polls.

I was amazed how Obama exceeded the poll expectations across the board.

You would think a good poll would figure out how to reach cell-only people for part of their sample.

[Tatiana]

14. Well, as many cell phone users pay for their actual minutes, it's a dicey situation.

FCC regulations pretty much block the bulk of telemarketing calls and the like to cell phones. I wonder if polling calls fall within that realm.

[Robbins]

15. Race

I think many Obama supporters know that If we went by pollsters,and pundits we would not be here.
Some also have a tendicy to Ignore polls favoring Obama.Go back to South Carolina,and Wisconsion and the polls that had It closer(which was wrong by the way) and ones that were closer on the actual results were Ignored by the media.Another fact some Ignore Is Ramsunion was wrong on California too.They had Obama up by one.The thing Is Hillary has to win by double digets to change this race,and this Is not going to happen.She may very well win Ohio.But It won't be by double digets.I am not counting Obama out In Ohio but Inless Zogby Is more right the Iowa,Nevada,South Carolina mode and not Califrnia mode than odds are Hillary win pull out a win In Ohio.I will go on
record that a Obama win In Rhode Island Is a bit more likely than a win In Ohio.However I am willing to say I think he takes Texas.If Obama takes Texas and she wins Ohio I will bet you they start dismissing Texas and say It didn't matter In Texas because the Democrats can't win it In Novemebr.That has been the reaction from the Clintons to Obama winning.And one thing to consider Is to increase our majority In Congress we need to be able to campaign everywhere even In States that won't be carried In Novemebr.Obama can campaign all over the country with congressional candiates.She can't.

[thoughtcrime1984]

13. The Politics of hope will defeat the politics of nope

Most people I know believe this nation can change for the better, and that the United Corporate States of America is not an inevitability, much like the nomination of Mrs. Rodham-Clinton is not an inevitability. Fear and mud-slinging is no way to win hearts and minds, Clinton campaign. We are Democrats, we are smarter than that!

[davidpdx]

17. Thanks for the reminder . You make a good point about the polls.

Over here in Korea I'll be wearing my Obama shirt tomorrow at work. It's going to be a LONG day, but I'm going to try to check results in the afternoon.

[AtomicKitten]

18. I look forward to tomorrow.

thanks for your post ;)

[monmouth]

19. I feel better now. The negativity HRC has come out with is very

disturbing. The more I read and hear her, she really scares me. Thanks for a positive post.

[cali]

20. This morning on the BBC I heard Kenneth Miller, a political

expert from McKenna College, say that it's really all over, and that on Wednesday the dem insiders will begin pressuring Clinton, in earnest, to bow out.

[Tatiana]

21. Yes, I called Senator Durbin's office yesterday to complain.

He (and apparently the staffers in his office too) have had enough.

I think Durbin (who is the #3 man in the Senate) is going to start pressuring the supers to be done with this before lasting damage is done to our general election chances.

[workinclasszero]

22. I know you are right!

I love these tight polls, supposedly tied or Hillary with a small trend up. Obama owns the youth vote and new voters which together with more progressive dems are the Obama movement. So far they have never let him down.

I just hope they come in strong for him again today!:applause:

GOBAMA!!! and GOTV!!!!:bounce:

[yourguide]

23. K&R

[ORDem]

24. Thanks for the reminder! Kick! n/t

:kick:

[totodeinhere]

25. Thanks - That has me in a better mood already.

Plus Vermont should report it's results first and get the ball rolling.

[Scurrilous]

26. Gobama!

:thumbsup: