Final KHOU Texas BELO tracking poll Clinton 46, Obama 45

[jezebel]

http://www.khou.com/topstories/stories/khou080303_tnt_belopollmonday.1c1978fa.html
The final night of our exclusive 11 News BELO Tracking Poll has us back to where we were nearly a week ago: Clinton 46, Obama 45. The race has toggled between the two of them, separated by less than a point, for five days now.

The margin of error is plus or minus 3.6 percent, which means all we can confidently say is that both are equally positioned to win the Texas primary.

For the last three days we have seen signals within our polling data that Clinton has managed to curb Obama’s momentum in Texas. Both candidates appear to have hit support plateaus. If that is the case, then the eight percent of undecided likely voters could break evenly between the two candidates on Tuesday, and the key to the election will be turnout.

snip

But, back to the Democrats. Our poll continues to confirm that Clinton has a heavy advantage among Hispanic voters, and that Obama has an advantage among African-American voters. It continues to indicate that a higher percentage of the undecided voters care about the economy as their primary issue than the proportion of likely voters who have already made their pick.

Since the beginning of our tracking poll a week ago, we have been asking likely voters if they have already voted and if so, whom they voted for. A week’s worth of data, culled from 2,400 people who said they either voted early or strongly intended to vote, puts the early voting results (as of our poll results released Sunday night) at about 56-percent for Obama, and 44-percent for Clinton. We also know that early turnout among African Americans was nearly identical to turnout among Hispanics. However, there are signals that Obama peaked during the first week of early voting, and that Clinton has been gaining ever since.

This gets to the question that will determine the outcome of this election: Will turnout on March 4 be higher among African Americans or Hispanics?

[TexasObserver]

1. BELO is a longstanding RIGHTWING media group in Texas.

I looked at their polling and it was ridiculous. They have missed it by at least 9 points.

Obama will win Texas. You can bet on it.

[blogslut]

3. BELO is RW

This is true.

Tell me? I don't get local news and I've stopped watching the teevee. Are the Texas media talking about this crazy turnout for Democrats? Up here in West Texas, I had to beg for early numbers from one county clerk. There was nothing about it in the local paper. What say you in your part of the state?

[TexasObserver]

6. Well, you live in RED country in West Texas/panhandle. I feel for ya!

The good news - yall's senate districts are huge and don't get many delegates because not many Democrats voting for us there. I expect Hillary to win the panhandle, but not pick up more than a couple delegates there.

The big cities are covering the early voting well. Houston, Austin, Dallas, Beaumont - all covering it. East Texas is getting coverage. Obama and Bubba have both been through East Texas recently. They know better than to send Hillary into East Texas.

She's going to win El Paso to Brownsville, Midland to Dalhart, Lubbock to Abilene, Denton to Texarkana.

Obama will win the big cities, half of deep East Texas, parts of central Texas, and coastal East Texas.

[blogslut]

13. You really think Hillary will win the Panhandle?

I don't get that feeling. But then, it's been difficult finding any Democrats here for the last 8 years that are willing to even publicly speak about their candidates.

My sister, god love her, is a Republican. But she and I both find the idea of Hillary carrying the Panhandle this primary, incredulous.

Maybe I don't know enough local Democrats. Maybe I just need to get out more. Frankly, my local media hasn't said squat about the elections. One columnist wrote about how ashamed he was that Bill Clinton visited us recently. That was adorable.

[TexasObserver]

15. I could be wrong about the panhandle. Many of the old time conservatives have abandoned our party.

But unless Obama does really well in Amarillo and Lubbock, I would expect Hillary to win the panhandle. Older, white, rural Dems are going Hillary.

[blogslut]

20. Well, I guess we'll find out

I am satisfied in knowing that early Democratic turnout increased seven times over what it was in 2004 for the last primary - in at least one county.

I'm sad that despite that staggering turnout, local Republicans still beat us in turnout. In both counties, their increase was about 2 times more than it was in 2004. So, it wasn't a big increase.

[hogwyld]

4. I wish I could share your optimism

and confidence. I still think Hillary ekes one out here, with a larger margin in OH and RI. She will then continue to rip the party apart for her own political gain...

[RBInMaine]

5. What makes you think she ekes it out here?

[TexasObserver]

7. No, she will not win Texas.

[Cha]

8. I like your optimism, TO..

By tomorrow night late or very late we should know.

[TexasObserver]

12. I've said for three weeks he would win Texas by 5-15 points.

I started saying it when polls showed him 15 points down.

I know how the state votes, and I can add up the numbers.

El Paso, Del Rio, Eagle Pass, McAllen, Harlingen, Brownsville and Laredo combined have half the votes Houston does, and Houston gets a lot more delegates per senatorial district.

I'll give her South Texas, West Texas, the sparsely populated areas of Central Texas. I'll give her Texas north of Dallas-Ft. Worth. I'll give her half of Deep East Texas.

Obama will win the big cities and the coastal areas, split the rural areas I've mentioned. He's going to win the state by 5-15 points, and his net delegate spread will be 15-50 delegates of the 193 in play.

[Cha]

16. I know you have your

ear to the ground..thanks!

[loveangelc]

17. we'll see if you're right tomorrow :). i should bookmark this and see lol.

don't you think republicans in tx will vote for hillary b/c of hillary?

[TexasObserver]

21. We shall see. I think Republicans voting for Hillary will be offset by cross overs for Obama.

[jzodda]

2. Its going to be a close one right down to the finish!

May the best man or woman win! I support Obama but love Hillary too. Shame this forum does not seem to look at it the same way. Politics is a contact sport, but once the dust settles we will have the better nominee regardless which one wins. If Obama wins tomorrow then we have our nominee. If she wins tomorrow then the fun goes on! I must say this has been a very fun political season for a political junkie like myself.

[earthlover]

9. maybe I am getting old....

...I used to think this was fun...but I can't wait for this primary stuff to be over with this time. I think most of it is because of the negativity of the Clinton campaign. It really saddens me if the 3AM ad proves effective and, as positive as the obama campaign has been it could all be for naught because of dumbshits who are vulnerable to such scare tactics.

[Cha]

11. We'll see..hilary's cutting her

own throat politically speaking for the GE so what is their real agenda?

[TexasObserver]

14. Her 3 AM ad will flop because it cannot move any voters to her column.

Anyone who thinks that ad has any viability was either already voting for her, or voting Republican.

It will not move one vote from Obama to her.

[book_worm]

10. I hope that number about Obama being up 56-44 in early voting is accurate.

As for tomorrow I think that Obama's superior ground game will make a big difference perhaps worth a point or two. Finally even if he lost the popular vote narrowly he would probably still come out of Texas with more delegates.

[thewiseguy]

18. 60% of votes in the Texas democratic primary have already been casted.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080303/ap_on_el_pr/texas_early_voting_1

This is California all over again. Do not pay attention much to the polls. They have no freaking idea what the turnout amongst African Americans would be.

[thevoiceofreason]

24. Nay nay.

Ask us tomorrow how many votes have been cast. Typically, 1/3 is early. Barack is winning huge.

[MadBadger]

19. Its all about GOTV now.

[rainbow4321]

22. Don't trust Belo...

They own Dallas Morning News...and to define just how badly repuke they are, they "re-endorsed" Huckabee yesterday. That "re-endorse" is their word, not mine. With that they also said "yeah, he won't win the repuke primary" but he represents where the repuke party should be headed.

[thevoiceofreason]

23. But also showed Barack up 17% in Houston and 30% in Austin.

GAME OVER