If Hillary does not win more delegates than Obama tomorrow, should she drop out of the race?

[jefferson_dem]

If Hillary does not win more delegates than Obama tomorrow, should she drop out of the race?

[Maddy McCall]

1. 2025. The magic number. As long as she plays within party rules, she can keep playing.

If it goes to the convention, so what? That's the PURPOSE of the convention, after all...even though some people here seem to forget that.

:bounce:GO HILLARY!!!:bounce:

[Spider Jerusalem]

23. Except...

if it becomes clear that she can't win a clear pledged-delegate lead, that argument becomes moot. The superdelegates aren't going to back the candidate who's won fewer pledged delegates at the convention; there have been enough statements to the press on the issue to be aware that the clear consensus is that the winner of the most pledged delegates will obtain the superdelegate support needed to secure the nomination, even if neither attains a total of 2025.

The math is NOT in Hillary's favour; running the numbers, based on 370 plegded delegates awarded tomorrow, and splitting them EVENLY (which seems if anything generous to Hillary, since Obama will likely end up with a delegate lead in Texas, plus bonus delegates in Vermont, and Ohio is likely to be a nearly even split), and then dividing the remaining 981 post-Tuesday pledged delegates between the two candidates, it becomes clear that Hillary needs in excess of 55% of all remaining pledged delegates to take the lead. (at a 55/45 split of remaining delegates in favour of Hillary, Obama still leads in the total by almost 50, 1810 to 1762).

[MojoMojoMojo]

26. Superdelegates should support candidate with the highest Registered DEMOCRAT vote

Otherwise Republicans and Republican leaning Independants dictate the winner.

[Spider Jerusalem]

28. Based on exit polling, Repuiblican crossovers and independents represent 6-7% of the total

and Rush Limbaugh has been advising his listeners to vote for Hillary in the Democratic primary. you don't really want to make that argument, trust me. If a state has open primaries, they still decide delegates; you don't change the rules mid-game because you don't like them.

[jlake]

2. No, she should stay in until one candidate has the 2025 needed to win.

[Mme. Defarge]

3. She should drop out today

in an 11th hour, last ditch attempt to save face and salvage her political career in the Senate.

[SoFlaJet]

9. and of that "career" in the senate

I'm going to do what I can to help that end in 2012 too, and try and convince Bobby Jr. to run in her place. We need a REAL democrat, not ones who PRETEND to be dems by voting with republicans on little matters such as war

[Mme. Defarge]

14. PLEASE!

Do us non-New yorkers a favor.

[Mojambo]

4. If she doesn't it's a guaranteed brokered convention.

Here's hoping she gets a whole lot of pressure from the party and does the right thing.

[tekisui]

6. Not technically brokered.

It would be decided by SuperD's, and they'd be making deals, but it would be decided on the first round of balloting. It wouldn't have to go to the "brokered" stage. The majority of the SuperD's will line up behind the delegate leader, who will most likely be the popular vote leader, as well.

The only way it would go to a second, brokered ballot is if some SuperD's sit out the first round or the vote is within 26 of each other, Edward's 26.

[John Q. Citizen]

5. For the good of the party, Hill should cling on, until she becomes a joke with zero influence.

I changed my mind. I used to think she should get real and call it quits.

Now, I think it would be better for the party if she self destructs by refusing to face reality.

[Independent-Voter]

8. I agree. She's bad news for the Dems.

[mediaman007]

10. Why shouldn't she get to bargain like every other politician does when

they drop out. She represents the voters that didn't choose Obama. Perhaps they have an agenda that needs to be addressed.

Consider Edwards. He hasn't endorsed because he apparently hasn't received a guarentee of certain considerations. Notice that both Obama and Clinton made trips to see him.

[high density]

18. She's not in the position to do any bargaining

Neither is Edwards.

[John Q. Citizen]

19. Consider Edwards. He dropped out gracefully when it became clear he wasn't going to win.

He didn't start doing the Repos dirty work for them. As such, he still retains influence in the party.

It's not too late for Hillary, but I'm not convinced she has the good judgment that Edwards does.

And very soon it will be too late for Hillary. She will be viewed as living in a fantasy land where her own ego supersedes what's good for all the rest of the members of the party.

If she's not gone by the end of the week, she will be made gone by the party soon into next week. And they will be none to happy to have to be forced to make her do the right thing by the party.

[mediaman007]

25. Perhaps Hillary's supporters don't buy into your world. Edwards didn't

have the number of delegates that Hillary does. Perhaps the Obama supporters ought to be a little more humble. Ramming this thing down half of the Democrat voters is a little overbearing.

[John Q. Citizen]

30. I don't think the leadership of the Dem party buys into Hill's world. If they did they wouldn't

keep remarking on how this thing needs to get wrapped up soon.

You wouldn't see more and more uncommitted super delegates going to Obama, and you wouldn't see previously pledged to Hill suers changing sides.

But that's what we have been seeing.

The vast overwhelming majority of Dem voters (Hill's voters included) could care less if Hill calls it quits. A few die hard partisans would be unhappy.

You don't imagine that the 40% of Dems who voted for Hill in WI are going to be heartbroken if she drops out of the race, do you?

Good. Because they won't be. They will say, 'Oh, so I guess it's Obama vs McCain. I'm tired of bush.'

[mediaman007]

32. Why is it that you consider Hillary's voters wishy-washy and Obama's

totally committed? I can't believe that Obama would back off if the tables were turned. Each of them is one step away from a dream. If they are that close, they deserve to go until the finish.

[John Q. Citizen]

34. Do the math. The party doesn't want or need to drag this out until Sept so Hill can

realize her dream.

Many of the supers are up for election this fall. The last thing they want is Hill bashing the front runner for the next six months.

They can and will put a stop to it if Hillary doesn't get real.

She is over 150 delegates behind. it's almost mathimatically impossible that she can catch up. She'd have to win every race by 20-25% and that's extremely unlikely.

So it's not that Hill voters or Obama's voters are wishy washy or not, it's that nobody who actually wants Dems to get elected this fall sees it in their best interests to drag this out when the writing is already on the wall.

what will hapeen is they will ask Hill nice. If she's obstinate, then we will see a rush of supers declaring for Obama, and a number of Hill's already declared switching sides. Obama will be able to end it in PA even if he loses the popular vote by 5 or 10 percent.

If Hill drags it out that long, she will piss off a whole lot of people, and she will be getting shitty Senate committe assignments.

[Perky]

7. As an Obama supporter unless it is a substantial loss, I actually hope she stays in

and continues to make her case up to the PA primary. The reason is selfish. It helps with fundraising to have an adversary. I also think she has the right to continue as long as she is competitive tomorrow in Texeas and Ohio. I don't think she will have any short at winning the nomination if she has a net delegate loss but it is very difficult to argue that she should get out.


But here is the thing: She goes uber-negative it would just be beyond tacky if she is seen as trying to take him down.

She needs to run a postivee issue oriented campaign to statrt the process of healing the party. In response, Obama could lead her an effort to make her Majority Leader, Give her the Keynote Address in Denver and ask her to lead the effort on Health care reform....shegets to put her name on the bill. He can offer her the VP slot... but he does not need her on the ticket and she does not want to play second fiddle anyway,

She goes scortched earth after losing three out of four tomorrow. The party leaders are going to taker her to the woodshed publicly.

[Dogmudgeon]

15. She's already been to the woodshed with the press. Often. Since 1992.

And it isn't working any more.

You say she has no shame -- I say she has no FEAR.

And that's a bad trait, how?

--p!

[Perky]

31. I never said she had no shame.,I never said the press should take her to the woodshed

I said the party leaders would if she goes negative after losing three out of four tomorrow. There is a huge difference.

[Abacus]

11. I thought it was perfectly reasonable for her to run through March 4,

but if she can't pull a delegate win tomorrow, I would think it would be best for her to consider backing out -- not that I expect she will. That said, she seems to be enjoying a last minute push that could help her close the delegate gap tomorrow.

[sniffa]

12. Even if she gets routed tomorrow, she should stay in till Puerto Rico

It's time to bury the Third Way.

[stillcool]

33. I can't stand ...

all the horse-shit, but you have a point. Why let her off the hook, without totally revealing what's behind the mask. Let her bankrupt herself..in every way possible.

[Dogmudgeon]

13. For the Good of the Party!

It sounds so altruistic that way, instead of being honest and saying "we just can't take the stress of an election!"

--p!

[jefferson_dem]

21. It's loaded but accurate. The "stress of the election" will have the effect of damaging our party

and our party's eventual nominee.

If Hillary can't conjure up a net gain in delegates tomorrow (at least), this thing is all-but-officially over. Perhaps you think Hillary should stay and fight anyway. But don't pretend that's without cost.

[Bryan]

16. I see no reason she should drop out until the magic number is reached

Of course, I'm not bankrolling her campaign.

[HeraldSquare212]

17. PA is close now, so that won't be the magic catch-up state for her.

So she never will catch up. The alternative is to be Huckabee, and that fine movie notwithstanding, I don't heart Huckabeeism.

[rinsd]

20. Just tomorrow? or does she have to regain the overall lead?

[jefferson_dem]

22. A net gain in delegates based on tomorrow's contests.

Without any progress at all, and given the steep hill she has to climb in such a short time, how can she possibly justify sticking it out?

Note...this is an extremely low bar for Hillary. Others, like Richardson, are saying we should rally behind whoever's ahead after Tuesday.

[rinsd]

24. Fair enough.

I think she should withdraw if she does not make a net gain tomorrow for pledged delegates.

[ColesCountyDem]

27. Other: She shouldn't drop out, but she needs to reel in the negative campaign.

Speaking as a lifelong, yellow-dog Democrat, I believe that every candidate must decide for himself or herself when it's time to bow out. That said, that candidate must also bear in mind what's best for the party AND the country, and doing the Repig's dirty work for them is NOT in the country's best interest.

[Blarch]

29. LOL.

So far 24 voters want her to take a trip to Huckabee land ...

Does she believe in miracles ?

[jefferson_dem]

35. Kos: Pushing Clinton from the race

Pushing Clinton from the race
by kos
Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 12:20:24 PM PST

The Obama campaign may be planning ahead (something the Clinton campaign never thought of, apparently), but it's clear that they're also paving the way for a serious push to knock Clinton out of the race this week.

First off is the developing CW, from the very astute Charlie Cook:

NBC political analyst Charlie Cook writes in his CongressDaily column, "inning by slight percentages in Texas and Ohio aren’t real wins for Clinton. A ‘win’ would be anything that significantly closes the gap in delegates. Symbolic victories mean nothing at this point, other than encouraging her to plow ahead in this campaign, amassing a greater campaign debt than already exists and delaying her ability to get on with the next phase of her life."...
The Clinton campaign will obviously do what she can to work the refs, but it's hard to overcome the math:

So -- under these most rosy of scenarios -- since March 4, she'll have earned 520 delegates to Barack Obama's 461, having reduced his earned delegate total by about 80 -- or -- by about 60 percent -- but he'll still have a lead of approximately 100 delegates in total... and be that much closer to 2025.

That "most rosy of scenarios" is well beyond the realm of possibilities (like Clinton winning 80 percent of the vote in Puerto Rico). And by the end of tonight, Obama will likely have extended his lead in pledged delegates or, at worst, lost a handful -- keeping him well ahead in the count.

So if the math is so unfavorable to Clinton, why is she still in? Because she's still hoping that a late surge will tip super delegates to her, while at the same time she forces the DNC to accept the tainted Michigan and Florida delegates. And since Obama can't reach an outright majority either, it really comes down to those supers. (Michigan and Florida won't matter unless they have revotes, and a competitive contest in each will split delegates and provide neither with the necessary boost to reach that majority.)

So what now?

If Clinton wins the popular vote in Texas and Ohio, she'll declare massive victory and claim it's a mandate to continue on.

But watch the delegate count. If Clinton doesn't make substantive gains on the race that matters -- the delegate race (remember, the Clinton campaign said it was all about delegates after Iowa) -- then there will be a major push from Obama and the party to shut this thing down.

Bill Richardson has already said the delegate leader after today should be the nominee (which by default is Obama, since Clinton couldn't possibly overtake him today). There's the Tom Brokaw announcement that Obama has 50 super delegates in his pocket, ready to announce post-election. And aren't you wondering why Obama's campaign hasn't announced its February fundraising numbers yet?

Expect Clinton to get the early media spin victory, but soon expect the hammer to fall -- 50 supers, a gazillion raised in February, and high-profile converts like Richardson will create intense pressure for Clinton to call it a day.

If she doesn't, she can continue running. It's a free country, and I like the thought of both campaigns building infrastructure in Pennsylvania. This primary season has done wonders for party building, and I'm under no hurry to shut it down. And Hillary's campaign can continue to play "Karl Rove" to Obama's effort. It's good practice for the shit Republicans will fling at Obama this fall. And if Obama can't handle the Clinton crap, how's he going to handle the McCain crap? So I'm cool with that as well.

But realistically, Hillary Clinton would be little more than our version of Mike Huckabee, nominally in the race, but everyone else having moved on.

<SNIP>

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/4/144342/2732/128/468703