USA Today/CNN/Gallup national poll just released: Bush 51%, Kerry 47%..

[flpoljunkie]

not as William Schneider just reported on CNN--according to this article in USA Today.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-03-29-poll_x.htm

Poll: Bush credibility down

By Richard Benedetto, USA TODAY

WASHINGTON — President Bush's credibility rating is down since his former counterterrorism chief went public last week with accusations that Bush minimized the al-Qaeda threat to focus on getting rid of Iraq's Saddam Hussein, according to a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll.

The Bush administration did not do all it could to prevent the attacks, 54% say, and 53% say the White House is covering up something about its handling of intelligence before Sept. 11.

Still, 67% say the administration should not have been expected to prevent the tragedy.

But Americans' doubts have not meant greater reluctance to return Bush to office.

In a two-way matchup, Bush leads Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, the Democratic candidate, 51%-47%, which is a 7 percentage-point gain in three weeks for Bush and a 5-point drop for Kerry. Three weeks ago, when Kerry was coming off a string of primary victories, Bush trailed him by 6 points.

If independent Ralph Nader is included, he gets 4%, Bush 49% and Kerry 45%.

more...

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

1. such bullshit

No way 2% of Repugs wind up voting for Nader, as is indicated in this poll. That makes NO sense at all. Vomitous garbage.

[mobuto]

2. Bill Schneider is a fool

He completely misrepresented his own poll.

[ezee]

18. Schneider is

too old for this. He cant even lie correctly any more.

[Mel]

3. I don't believe it

eom

[Stargleamer]

4. It's Strange....

that Nader draws equally from Bush and Kerry. Bush's unending smearing of Kerry does seem to help keep his percentages up.

[MoonRiver]

5. I don't believe their crap. See my post about auditing Gallup.

They threw us a little bone with the * credibility thing. Obviously didn't mean diddly squat, though, for their biased sample.

:argh:

[drhilarius]

6. well

sheeple are stupid. I have to admit, though, kids in marketing classes will, for years, learn about the techniques of Rove and company. I mean it's mind blowing. Basically, the people have a headache, bush keeps punching them in the face telling them it'll fix it, and they just stand there mouth breathing going "derrrrrrr, o'tay."

[MuseRider]

Welcome to DU

drhilarius! If it wasn't so very sad your post would be hysterical.

[MoonRiver]

9. I DO NOT believe Americans are THAT stupid.

Gallup is a rightwing fraud of a polling organization. And CNN is just as complicit. We can't be fooled by the soothing but meaningless little bones they throw us. Starving dogs can either subserviently obey their cruel master, or push them out of the way and head for the frig.

[stldemocrat]

I really hope...

that the one thing that doesn't happen is that Kerry loses, and then they say that he was too far "left". I am voting for him, but am holding my nose (his latest tax breaks for corporations doesn't make him smell any better). But we picked him not because he is the best, but because he is electable. He is not exactly Mr. Charisma (John Edwards is much more engaging), so I don't know how he will stand up to the Rove Attack Machine. If he loses, and then next time round they pick some to the right of him, I'll go Green in 2008.

[MoonRiver]

46. There won't be a 'next time around'. Stop fooling yourself.

If you or somebody you care about is draft age, get thee and yours to a safe place outside this country. Rounding up cannon fodder for his neverending war against terra will be *'s first order of business, should he steal another one, come December 2005.

[stldemocrat]

49. Well...

I guess I personally, don't need to worry about that. The repugs don't want women in the military, just kept pregnant. I generally agree with you, but unfortunately Kerry voted to send a bunch of guys over to be canon fodder in Iraq.

[MoonRiver]

52. Yes, that vote was a huge mistake on Kerry's part. Still,

he's 10,000 times better than the squatter. We're all in this together. :grouphug: Sorry if my tangent was a little over the top. But I am really mad at these rigged, imo, polling sources. I think a lot more damage is done than many are aware of.

[stldemocrat]

54. It's not even close...

Kerry is like any politician, and you have to accept that he is going to do stuff you don't like. I know that he will not do things like attack random countries, though.

I guess I am like you in that I really worry about what will happen (to the country and the Democratic Party) if Kerry loses. In some way I wish that we would have nominated who could offer a little bit better distinction from Bush*.

Come on it's 8 months before the election. Let's take a couple of weeks to worry and then get on with removing chimpy.

:bounce:

[ezee]

21. sheep

always follow there leader. What comes to mind is the commercial with the sheep all falling off the cliff. That day will come in November!

[bucknaked]

7. Sure we'll observe sudden praise for Gallup, ignorance toward Rasmussen...

Among the freep-types

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

[MAlibdem]

8. I think Zogby is MUCH better

he was pretty accurate in the primaries.

On 3/21 he had Kerry ahead of Bush in a head to head, tied with nader.

Bush had a 46% approval rating and a 53% disapproval rating.

i think that's more representative of the population

[MoonRiver]

10. I agree. But nobody talks about Zogby on television.

Coincidence? I DON'T THINK SO.

[Sanity]

12. It's a vast conspiracy ... absolutely

C'mon.

[MoonRiver]

Well, please explain to me why NOBODY has contrasted the Zogby poll

with the Gallup poll today, both of which were released at the same time. Breathlessly awaiting your answer.

[Sanity]

20. It's called Margin of Error

48-46 Kerry lead in Zogby and 51-47 Bush lead in Gallup are in the same +-3 MOE.

Again it's a dead heat, so getting in a tizzy of a couple points here or there is useless and futile.

[MoonRiver]

25. You did not answer my question.

WHY didn't anyone on t.v. today discuss Zogby? They could have thrown in the MOE thing, discussing how * was favored in one poll, and Kerry in another, but noooooo. The rightwing media whores chose to focus in like a lazer beam on the one poll that favored His Lowness, the naked emperor. WHY?????

[Sanity]

27. I haven't watched any of the cable outlets today

I do know that I have seen Zogby on the past on TV. Additionally, I believe that Zogby is seen more on MSNBC and Gallup is seen more on CNN. This has little to do with politics and more to do with contracting.

[MoonRiver]

32. Yes, once in a blue moon we hear about Zogby and never about other

polling organizations. Isn't that special. :puke:

[DerBeppo]

15. actually

zogby is the only pollster i've seen interviewed on fox. i thought zogby was the right wing poll? with all the praising/thrashing of polls here i can't keep them straight.

[leyton]

38. Well, it depends on what the poll says.

People denounce the poll if it shows Kerry down. People accept it if it shows Bush down.

[Snivi Yllom]

35. Tweety is always quoting Zogby when they are not pimping their own

News week poll

[Sanity]

11. Blasting the polling organization will not get Kerry elected

This race is a dead heat, period. If you want polls to say that Kerry is leading 99%-1% over Bush, then just link to a DU poll.

I'm tired of conspiracy theories saying Gallup or Rasmussen or anybody (except FOX) are trying to push an agenda when they simply publish a mediocre poll result because denial is not going to get us anywhere.

[Thrill]

13. Show me state by state polls

These polls don't show the true feelings of the people. How many of these people were from Oklahoma, Kansas, and ALabama?

[MoonRiver]

16. And how often do the rightwing CNN shills talk about state polls?

Answer: NEVER. The fix is in unless we fight it tooth and claw.

[MoonRiver]

14. I want truth in advertising and/or polling, not a rightwing fix.

You may be willing to settle for that, but NOT ME.

[Sanity]

22. I'm not convinced that any outlet save Fox is a rightwing fix.

Polling organizations are unbiased. Unless Gallup is proven to massively distort their results (which based historically on elections hasn't happened), then I'm not going to accuse them of fudging their results.

Actually, there really are only two choices on your view of a polling organizations. Either they are unbiased or they are fudging their data. There is no middle ground. And I lean to the former choice without any evidence that Gallup is fudging numbers.

[MoonRiver]

28. As long as I'm been observing polling results, Gallup has been WRONG.

Either their incredibly low tech and don't know what they're doing, or they're trying to manipulate the electorate.

[Snivi Yllom]

33. when Kerry was up in the last Gallup poll by 6 everyone loved it

[TheStateChief]

48. And Kerry was up +12 over Bush in last month's Gallup poll

[bushbegone04]

17. It's only one poll

In a sea of many! It's early guys, cheer up :-)

[MoonRiver]

19. The strongest predictor of future behavior is past behavior.

That is most valid of all psychological principles. Sorry, but I'm not cheered.

[bushbegone04]

23. Just look at the Newsweek poll

It just came out - Bush's cred is down. Every poll says something differently lately. I just don't get down over them because the sands are constantly shifting back and forth. What can I say, I'm an optimist. I just don't beleive the country is that stupid!

[MoonRiver]

26. That's what I'm saying. Gallup is the only one to prop His Lowness up.

I used to be an optimist until my USSC handed a rigged election to the loser. Now I'm a tad bit more cynical.

[LabMonkey]

47. last recent 10 major polls- Kerry leads in 1

leads in 1, ties in another, margin is small. 7 months to go.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

[newyawker99]

58. Hi LabMonkey!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[ringmastery]

24. this thread is such bullshit

Any poll that shows Kerry ahead is a *good* poll and any poll that shows Kerry behind is a fucking conspiracy. Give me a fucking break. :rolleyes

You people don't know how silly you sound.

As another poster said, both polls are within the margin of error. It'll be a tough race.

Don't for a second underestimate the power of Bush's $200 million. It's going to be a hell of a challenge to beat Bush this Fall anyway we look at it.

[flpoljunkie]

30. Nobody said it wasn't going to be a long, hard slog fighting Bush smear

machine. It would not be nearly so difficult if the feckless media would do their jobs--instead of unquestionably repeating and never debunking Bush/Cheney lies like "Kerry has raised taxes over 350 times"--they just repeat it, like the irresponsible cretins they are!

Let's all send them this link from factcheck.org: http://www.factcheck.org/printerFriendly.aspx?docid=159

[The Backlash Cometh]

29. How much you want to bet they're laying the groundwork for the BBV?

*

[MoonRiver]

34. Guar-on-teed. n/t

[maisey03]

42. Does anyone want to explain...

what this BBV talk is all about? I guess we're going to get new, rigged voting machines? Or there is already a way to rig them? If I told my Republican parents that this election was going to be rigged, they'd throw a fit and say I was being brainwashed by liberal media outlets. That may be the case... I'm sorry if I find this really hard to believe. We've had the same archaic machines here for years. Our governor gets criticized for spending a dime - how would he get away with buying hundreds of new machines? So, if the Democrats were in power right now, I guess they'd be pulling the same tricks to get their person re-elected? If so, I think I'm going to join the 5% of Ohioans voting for Nader! :P

[MoonRiver]

43. Maybe you need to do a little research.

Try this link:

http://search.netscape.com/ns/boomframe.jsp?query=black+box+voting&page=1&offset=0&result_url=redir%3Fsrc%3Dwebsearch%26requestId%3D7d231dc2ff0eade8%26clickedItemRank%3D1%26userQuery%3Dblack%2Bbox%2Bvoting%26clickedItemURN%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.blackboxvoting.com%252F%26invocationType%3D-%26fromPage%3DNSCPIndex2%26amp%3BampTest%3D1&remove_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.blackboxvoting.com%2F

[maisey03]

59. Thanks for the link.

But, I'm wondering why, if this is legit, the media didn't take this and run with it. I worked for the state in collge. The media here is fairly liberal. More than once they'd take our news releases and twist them to make us look like thieves/morons. They especially dislike the government and big business. Wouldn't the Democrat representatives, esp. up in the northern area of Ohio, be aware of the Diebold news and make a big stink about it? Is this information available in other forms of media that you've seen - newspapers, journals? Thanks.

Also - to all those that believe this to be the truth - why are you discussing this election at all? Don't you already believe it to be a lost cause? Without Ohio or Florida, Kerry doesn't have a chance.

[maisey03]

31. Was CNN the one that did the...

latest Ohio poll that had Nader at 5%? That was enough for me to start distrusting polls. How could Nader have that high of a percentage in Ohio? California or Hawaii, maybe. Especially this early on, it's weird. Hopefully, Nader won't even BE on our ballot. I think the breakdown was 45% Bush, 47% Kerry - the rest for Nader or undecided. 5%+ for "undecided" is more likely.

Haven't all the polls lately shown Kerry a couple points ahead? That does sound weird for him to drop all of a sudden. You'd think Bush would be dropping even more this week...

[MoonRiver]

36. The righwing, including its media and polling organization,

are desperately hoping we won't notice. :D

[Snivi Yllom]

37. Bloomberg's spin on the same poll:Bush's Approval Rating Rises

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aGRZ.iuYv_yk&refer=us

Bush's Approval Rating Rises, Leads Kerry in USA-Today-CNN Poll
March 29 (Bloomberg) -- Public statements by a former White House official that U.S. President George W. Bush didn't make terrorism an urgent priority before Sept. 11, 2001, hasn't hurt the president's overall approval ratings, according to a new poll conducted for USA Today and Cable News Network.

The survey, conducted after former counter-terrorism adviser Richard Clarke testified before a Sept. 11 investigative panel, found the percentage of people who approved of the way the president is handling the threat of terrorism fell to 58 percent from 65 percent in December. The president's overall job approval still rose four points to 53 percent, the highest in more than a year.

Bush, 57, also has gained ground on Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, 60, in a head-to-head match-up measuring voter support, the poll taken by the Gallup Organization shows. The president now leads Kerry 51 percent to 47 percent, a gain of seven points in the past three weeks for Bush, the March 26-28 survey of 1,001 adults found.

[MoonRiver]

40. And the spin goes on!

When will we EVER learn?

[Yavin4]

39. Everyone: Some Things To Keep In Mind

1.) Kerry was on vacation when this poll was taken, so Bush had the attention to himself.

2.) The full impact of Clarke's testimony has not taken effect.

3.) This poll is roughly within the margin of error, so it has little significance.

4.) Kerry will get a huge bounce once his VP is picked. Remember Bush has Cheaney out campaining for him.

5.) Kerry is at his best when he's down in the polls. It's when he's a frontrunner that he loses steam.

[StayOutTheBushes]

62. So

>5.) Kerry is at his best when he's down in the polls. It's when he's a frontrunner that he loses steam.<

He needs to be behind to win?

[looking glass]

41. Too early

Most people just get irritated by politics before Labor Day.

Late summer state polls will tell the tale. Everything else is just fodder for online political junkies. Like me.

[terisel]

44. I think it is important to know each of the major Pollsters

Gallup was often way out of line with other polls in 2000. I remember CNN claimed they used some kind of intensity factor.

Gallup has been a highly respected name in polling due to its innovative founder, Dr. Gallup of Princeton NJ. He is long since gone.

The Gallup Organization was bought out in 1988 by SRI (Selection Research) of Lincoln or Omaha, Nebraska which merged the companies into the Gallup Group. Jim Clifton of SRI, who currently resides in Washington, D.C. has been CEO ever since.I think this is a privately held business and information regarding the Board of Directors is not easy to find online.

Clifton seems to be an incredibly successful businessman. In 1977 he had a $5000 loan investment in his little business. By 1988 he owned Gallup-a major name and had billing exceeding $200 million-if I am reading this correctly. This company may be 100% trustworthy in their aims and methodology but I would like to know more about it-especially because of the strangeness of its poll results in election 2000 as reported by CNN with whom they "partner"-whatever that means.

Jim Clifton, The Gallup Organization

Jim Clifton began his career in Lincoln in 1977 by starting a marketing research company with a $5,000 loan from Union Bank. In his first year of business he used this $5,000 as seed money and was able to generate $80,000 in total sales. Following acquisitions, including the renowned Gallup Organization and worldwide expansion, his organization's billings exceeded $200 million. Jim has been CEO of The Gallup Organization since 1988. The Gallup Organization is one of the world's largest think tanks and providers of public opinion polling and management consulting. Under Jim's fourteen-year leadership, Gallup has enjoyed a ten-fold increase in billings volume and expanded from a predominately U.S.-based company to a global organization with offices in fifty cities in 24 of the world's largest nations. Mr. Clifton's current projects include the creation of a 75-acre Gallup University campus on the Missouri River in Omaha, Nebraska and a living internet-based record of "what man thought" named the Gallup WorldBrain which stores 65 years of polls on almost all issues the world has faced.
PHOTOS COMING SOON

<http://www.cba.unl.edu/outreach/ent/eoy/ >



Cynthia Milligan is the only board menber I've found. She is the dean of the College of Business Administration at the University of Nebraska in Lincoln, Nebraska. Ms. Milligan is also the former Director of Banking and Finance for the State of Nebraska-which would seem to be impeccable credtials.

<http://www.wellsfargo.com/about/corporate/boardofdirectors/milligan.jh... >


The home page for Gallup: <http://www.gallup.com/ >

terisel

[malachibk]

45. You can't scream Bullshit! when Bush is up...

and get all excited when Bush is down. Don't make me get into the statistics, now...

And I like Bill Schneider even though I hate CNN. Leave the guy alone, he's not Wolf Blitzer or anything.

[West Coast Democrat]

50. Yes you can. Just assume Gallup always props Bush* by 5-10pts

more than he deserves...that's how Gallup works. Just look at their track record. Not too convincing.

[TheStateChief]

53. Well, OK, but it still doesn't explain a 16-point shift in one month

Kerry was up 12 in the February Gallup poll. Now he's down 4.

[shivaji]

51. Scumbag Nader fxxxed us in 2000, I am afraid is doing it again in 2004

[WitchWay]

55. What are you so angry at Nader about?

That he "took" 2% from Kerry or that he "took" 2% from Bush?

[theshadow]

56. Labor Organizer Joe Hill said...

"Don't mourn... organize!" to his supporters before he was executed for murder. About this poll: Don't mourn... DONATE. Kerry needs money. Like it or not, he must have cash to get the message out and Bush has tons more than he's got.

[radfringe]

57. when you average out ALL of these polls - it's still a statistical tie

http://www.pollingreport.com/

bush* barely beats Kerry (statistical ties)
--Investor's business Daily
.......bush* 46% Kerry 43%

--NBC News/Wall Street Journal
.......bush* 47% Kerry 45%

TIED
--Faux news
......bush* 44% Kerry 44%

Kerry beats bush*
--American Research Group
.......Kerry 50% bush* 43%

--CNN/USA Today/Gallop
.......Kerry 52% bush* 44%

--ABC/WP
.......Kerry 53% bush* 44%

averages:
Kerry: 47.8%
bush*: 44.6%

[ProfessorGAC]

60. Thanks Rad

By the way, Pew has Kerry ahead, and they and ARG use larger sample sizes than everyone else. So, on a weighted average basis, Kerry is leading by a statistically significant, but razor thin, margin.
The Professor

[mzmolly]

61. The most interesting thing about this is Nader is pulling 2% from each.

Also Kerry hasn't really began campaigning yet, Bush has.

Kerry tends to come from behind at the end and cross the finish line in the nick of time.

I think he lays low for a while and then *wham*

[StayOutTheBushes]

63. Kerry hasn't begun campaigning?

What has he been doing then?

[mzmolly]

64. He's been doing the ol' rope a dope.

In fact, last week Kerry was snowboarding. He knows it's early and the polls at this point are not the end all. ;)

[StayOutTheBushes]

65. He has been campaigning for months.

So, one week off and it all goes to hell? Hmmmmmmmm.

[mzmolly]

66. Do you think losing by 2 points is "going to hell"

the election is months away.

Were he trailing by 10 points I may be more concerned. You sound quite concerned either way.

Who do you support in the coming election?

[StayOutTheBushes]

71. I will vote for Kerry.

I was just pointing out that he has been campaigning nostop for months. Your post made it sound like he hadn't started his campaign yet.

[seahawky]

67. When Kerry picks Edwards...

there will be a surge in the polls. The ole boy from North Carolina can bring in some voters.

[no name no slogan]

68. What's the margin of error on this poll?

In most cases, you can assume at least an MOE of 3%, if not 5%, in these polls. IOW, it's a statistical tie right now.

Which is not a bad place to be right now. We're still a couple months before the convention, and facing a semi-popular "wartime" president.

This is not a bad place to be in right now. If it holds steady, we'll be looking at at least a post-convention "bounce" of ten points, minimum-- AND a couple of months head start on the Repubs, who won't even have their convention until September.

This race is STILL ours to lose.

[MoonRiver]

69. I agree, but this is so absurd.

* is a MANUFACTURED "war" pResident. He ignored 9/11 (LIHOP if you will), and invaded Iraq on the basis of LIES, yet the media whores declare him to be a "war" pResident!! Give me a f'n break. The corporate media is the greatest threat to our country, bar none.

[Phelan]

70. The margin of error was 4%

Since the difference is within the margin of error it is not really a significant indicator of anything.